predictions for Michigan State game

Now that all the cupcakes have been eliminated, we're down to a 32-team
tournament in which anything can happen; witness the overall #1 seed
Villanova losing to Wisconsin, which ought to serve as a wake-up call
for the remaining top seeds.  The lowest ranked teams to survive the
Round of 64 are Middle Tennessee and USC, whose Sagarin Predictor ratings
are within 14 points of top-ranked Gonzaga, a little more than one
standard deviation, where you'd have about a 10 percent chance of an
upset, which isn't all that unreasonable.  Up next is a tournament-savvy
Tom Izzo.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 7.7 point margin, with a 79.2 percent probability of
winning the game.  Michigan State has been playing games that average 139.8
total points, comparable to Kansas State, the third-lowest scoring team in
the Big 12.  By comparison, Kansas has been playing games that average
155.3 total points, the second-highest in the Big 12.  The average of the
two teams is therefore 147.6 points, suggesting a final score of Kansas 78,
Michigan State 70.  Kansas has been playing 0.4 points above expectation,
while the Spartans have been playing 0.5 points below expectation, which
increases the margin for Kansas to 8.6 points.  The inconsistency for Kansas
increased a bit after the rout of UC Davis, but 7.1 points is still amazingly
low.  Only 5 times out of 33 games have the Jayhawks played by more than 8
points below expectation, which would be enough to lose today's game,
corresponding to a 15.2 percent chance of losing.  Michigan State, on the
other hand, is slightly more inconsistent than the national average.  In
8 out of 34 games, the Spartans played more than 8 points above expectation,
which would be enough to win today's game, corresponding to a 23.5 percent
chance of winning.  Those two probabilities average to a 19.3 percent chance
of Kansas losing, nearly identical to the 20.8 percent chance of losing
derived from the Sagarin Predictor ratings and the respective inconsistency
ratings.  Noteworthy is the fact that 3 of those 8 games occurred within
Michigan State's last 6 games, and the margin by which they beat Miami was
20 points more than expected, compared with Kansas' victory over UC Davis,
which was only 14 points more than expected.  Yes, Michigan State has a
statistically significant positive trend, while Kansas also has a positive
trend, though it is not statistically significant.  Both teams have negative
mental toughness rates.  The value for Kansas became statistically significant
after the rout of UC Davis, while the value for Michigan State is effectively
non-existent.  Taken at face value, however, the margin for Kansas decreases
to 6.9 points.  The 7.7 point margin derived from the Sagarin Predictor
ratings is actually the most pessimistic of the various Sagarin methods,
getting at high as 11.6 points using the Elo Chess method.  The "offense
defense" method puts the margin at 8.4 points, with a final score of
Kansas 79, Michigan State 70.

Massey gives Kansas a 7.0 point margin, with a 73 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 78, Michigan State 71.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 9.5 units, as well as
the better adjusted defense by 0.6 units.  Those combine to a 10.1 units
advantage for Kansas.  With the average adjusted tempo being 68.5 possessions,
the margin would be 6.9 points.  The final score would then be Kansas 76,
Michigan State 69.  By the way, Michigan State is Pomeroy's third-lowest
ranked team remaining in the tournament, midway through the Round of 32.
Only Arkansas and USC are ranked lower.

Greenfield gives Kansas an 8.0 point margin, with a Vegas implied final score
of Kansas 78, Michigan State 70.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has
the advantage in seven out of eight categories; Michigan State dishes 0.6
more assists per game.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in just three of the seven categories, namely grabbing 2.2 more
offensive rebounds per game, stealing 2.5 more balls per game, and committing
2.1 fewer personal fouls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 10.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at
8.0 points, so he is picking Kansas in both the game and against the spread.
His total points is 155, suggesting a final score of Kansas 82.5, Michigan
State 72.5 (you pick the roundings).  Meanwhile, the Vegas total is 147.5,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 78, Michigan State 70.

Real Time gives Kansas a 7.0 point margin, with a 62.7 percent probability of
winning the game, and a final score of Kansas 80, Michigan State 73.

Kansas remains at #3 in the RPI behind Villanova and Arizona, according to
Collegiate Basketball News.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 6.4 point margin, with a 71.0 percent probability of
winning, and a final score of Kansas 77, Michigan State 71.

Colley gives Kansas a 10.9 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously.

Whitlock gives Kansas an 8.0 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously.

The new and improved BPI gives Kansas a 10.2 point margin, with an 82.9 percent
probability of winning.

Kansas remains at #7 in the LRMC.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas an 8.0 point margin with a 65 percent probability
of winning the game and a final score of Kansas 78, Michigan State 70.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 6.6 point margin.

Don Davis gives Kansas an 8.0 point margin.

There are four common opponents, one of which Kansas has played twice, giving
us five scores to compare:

KU   +6 UK   on road ( +9 neutral court)
MSU -21 UK   neutral (-21 neutral court)
KU  +30 MSU  neutral (+30 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU   at home ( +2 neutral court)     KU   +2 BU   on road ( +5 neutral court)
MSU -15 BU   neutral (-15 neutral court)     MSU -15 BU   neutral (-15 neutral court)
KU  +17 MSU  neutral (+17 neutral court)     KU  +20 MSU  neutral (+20 neutral court)

KU   +2 Duke neutral ( +2 neutral court)
MSU  -9 Duke on road ( -6 neutral court)
KU   +8 MSU  neutral ( +8 neutral court)

KU   -4 IU   neutral ( -4 neutral court)
MSU  -7 IU   on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU    0 MSU  neutral (  0 neutral court)

Interesting that Michigan State lost all the games against the common opponents,
while Kansas either won or took to overtime all those opponents.  The entire
Champions Classic is represented here.  Anyway, the average is 15.0 points in
favor of Kansas, with the Kentucky and Baylor comparisons being particularly
favorable for Kansas.  The Indiana comparison isn't quite fair, because Kansas
had to play against Anunoby, while he was out when the Hoosiers played the Spartans.

Players to watch:  Guard Miles Bridges plays the most minutes, scores the most
points, grabs the most rebounds, and blocks the most shots, but also commits the
most turnovers; guard Cassius Winston dishes the most assists and is their leading
thief; forward Nick Ward commits the most personal fouls.  Looks pretty much like
a one-man show:  control Bridges and you control the game.  Eron Harris, Gavin
Schilling, abd Ben Carter are all out with knee injuries; Harris, in particular,
has the third-most minutes and the third-most points.  Meanwhile, Azubuike's
hand is cast-free; no indication that he's been cleared by doctors, nor would I
expect any announcement that might cause opponents to prepare for him.

So, the various prognostications range from a 6.4 point win (Dolphin) to a
15.0 point win (common opponents).  The average is 8.7 points in favor of
Kansas, suggesting a final score of Kansas 78, Michigan State 69.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   #  9   #  7   #  3   #  3   +0.4    7.1   +0.04 +/- 0.13   -0.19 +/- 0.13
Michigan State # 32   # 15   # 34   # 30   # 33   -0.5   11.4   +0.28 +/- 0.20   -0.02 +/- 0.20
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  4  #  3   #  8   # 10   #  6  #  4    #  8    #  3   # 36   #  3   # 29
Michigan State # 40  # 15   # 35   # 18   # 31  # 24    # 46    # 56   # 10   #155   #307
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----
Kansas         #  2   #  2   #  8   #  2   #  3   #  2   #  3   1.150   29-4 
Michigan State # 41   # 41   # 29   # 47   # 43   # 45   # 41   0.950   20-14
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  2  # 22    #  5  #  6    #  8  # 19    #  7  #  3    # 17  # 15    # 11  # 24
Michigan State # 45  # 10    # 44  # 14    # 40  # 21    # 41  # 15    # 35  # 22    # 52  # 27

Here is Kansas' season, including the higher seeded opponent in the
tournament bracket, along with the cumulative probability of reaching
that level and ultimately winning the national championship (3.7 percent):

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 30 Indiana                     99 103    +7.13   -11.13
NEUT   #  9 Duke                        77  75    +0.45    +1.55
HOME   #174 Siena                       86  65   +24.17    -3.17
HOME   #168 UAB                         83  63   +23.76    -3.76
HOME   # 56 Georgia                     65  54   +13.65    -2.65
HOME   #128 NC Asheville                95  57   +21.45   +16.55
HOME   #205 Long Beach State            91  61   +26.66    +3.34
HOME   # 89 Stanford                    89  74   +17.80    -2.80
HOME   #234 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +28.21   +14.79
HOME   # 97 Nebraska                    89  72   +18.56    -1.56
HOME   # 82 Davidson                    89  71   +17.18    +0.82
AWAY   #223 UNLV                        71  53   +21.50    -3.50
AWAY   # 44 TCU                         86  80    +5.43    +0.57
HOME   # 33 Kansas State                90  88   +10.66    -8.66
HOME   # 42 Texas Tech                  85  68   +11.44    +5.56
AWAY   # 59 Oklahoma                    81  70    +7.70    +3.30
HOME   # 22 Oklahoma State              87  80    +7.13    -0.13
AWAY   # 15 Iowa State                  76  72    -0.66    +4.66
HOME   # 61 Texas                       79  67   +13.91    -1.91
AWAY   #  4 West Virginia               69  85    -4.24   -11.76
AWAY   #  5 Kentucky                    79  73    -3.63    +9.63
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      73  68    +5.27    -0.27
HOME   # 15 Iowa State                  89  92    +5.40    -8.40
AWAY   # 33 Kansas State                74  71    +4.60    -1.60
AWAY   # 42 Texas Tech                  80  79    +5.38    -4.38
HOME   #  4 West Virginia               84  80    +1.82    +2.18
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                      67  65    -0.79    +2.79
HOME   # 44 TCU                         87  68   +11.49    +7.51
AWAY   # 61 Texas                       77  67    +7.85    +2.15
HOME   # 59 Oklahoma                    73  63   +13.76    -3.76
AWAY   # 22 Oklahoma State              90  85    +1.07    +3.93
NEUT   # 44 TCU                         82  85    +8.46   -11.46
NEUT   #203 UC Davis                   100  62   +23.54   +14.46
NEUT   # 34 Michigan State                        +7.71             0.792    0.792
NEUT   # 12 Purdue                                +1.44             0.562    0.445
NEUT   #  8 Louisville                            +0.04             0.502    0.223
NEUT   #  2 North Carolina                        -1.84             0.421    0.094
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                               -2.59             0.390    0.037

Here is Michigan State's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 20 Arizona                     63  65    -4.30    +2.30
NEUT   #  5 Kentucky                    48  69    -8.31   -12.69
HOME   #344 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)     100  53   +32.92   +14.08
HOME   #113 Florida Gulf Coast          78  77   +13.00   -12.00
NEUT   # 94 St. John's                  73  62    +7.33    +3.67
NEUT   # 14 Baylor                      58  73    -5.47    -9.53
NEUT   # 10 Wichita State               77  72    -6.85   +11.85
AWAY   #  9 Duke                        69  78   -10.29    +1.29
HOME   #227 Oral Roberts                80  76   +20.05   -16.05
HOME   #287 Youngstown State            77  57   +24.07    -4.07
HOME   #252 Tennessee Tech              71  63   +21.61   -13.61
HOME   #155 Northeastern                73  81   +15.36   -23.36
HOME   #100 Oakland-Mich.               77  65   +11.02    +0.98
AWAY   # 36 Minnesota                   75  74    -2.53    +3.53
HOME   # 38 Northwestern                61  52    +3.67    +5.33
HOME   #117 Rutgers                     93  65   +13.35   +14.65
AWAY   # 81 Penn State                  63  72    +3.26   -12.26
HOME   # 36 Minnesota                   65  47    +3.53   +14.47
AWAY   # 64 Ohio State                  62  72    +0.44   -10.44
AWAY   # 30 Indiana                     75  82    -3.61    -3.39
HOME   # 12 Purdue                      73  84    -3.24    -7.76
HOME   # 21 Michigan                    70  62    -0.79    +8.79
AWAY   # 97 Nebraska                    72  61    +4.79    +6.21
AWAY   # 21 Michigan                    57  86    -6.85   -22.15
HOME   # 68 Iowa                        77  66    +7.24    +3.76
HOME   # 64 Ohio State                  74  66    +6.50    +1.50
AWAY   # 12 Purdue                      63  80    -9.30    -7.70
HOME   # 97 Nebraska                    88  72   +10.85    +5.15
HOME   # 17 Wisconsin                   84  74    -2.16   +12.16
AWAY   # 67 Illinois                    70  73    +1.14    -4.14
AWAY   # 47 Maryland                    60  63    -1.50    -1.50
NEUT   # 81 Penn State                  78  51    +6.29   +20.71
NEUT   # 36 Minnesota                   58  63    +0.50    -5.50
NEUT   # 32 Miami-Florida               78  58    -0.13   +20.13
NEUT   #  7 Kansas                                -7.71             0.208