predictions for UC Davis game

Kansas hasn't played an opponent ranked this low since the UNLV game in
December.  The danger lies in underestimating the opponent.  UC Davis is
on a four-game winning streak, while Kansas is on a one-game losing streak.
On the flip side, UC Davis has never played an opponent as strong as Kansas
this season; their strongest opponent was #52 California, and that game
resulted in a 25 point road loss for the Aggies.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 22.8 point margin, with a 99.8 percent probability of
winning the game.  UC Davis has been playing games that average 138.0 total
points, comparable to Texas, the second-lowest scoring team in the Big 12.
By comparison, Kansas has been playing games that average 155.1 total points,
the second-highest in the Big 12.  The average of the two teams is therefore
146.5 points, suggesting a final score of Kansas 85, UC Davis 62.  Kansas
has been playing 0.3 points above expectation, while the Aggies have been
playing 0.2 points below expectation, which increases the margin for Kansas
to 23.3 points.  The inconsistency for Kansas remains at an astonishingly
low 6.7 points, and the Jayhawks' worst performance came in Morgantown when
they played 11.6 points below expectation (the recent TCU game was almost as
bad at 11.1 points), so it would take a meltdown of epic proportions to lose
today's game, meaning twice as bad as their worst.  By way of comparison,
the inconsistency for the Aggies is somewhat higher at 9.1 points, but their
best performance came at home against Santa Barbara, when they played just
14.9 points above expectation.  They would have to do 50 percent better than
that to win today's game.  You can see why the probability of Kansas winning
is as high as 99.8 percent.  Yes, that four-game winning streak has given
UC Davis a positive trend, while the trend for Kansas slipped into negative
territory after the loss to TCU, but neither is statistically significant.
The mental toughness rating for Kansas is marginally significant, but recall
that a negative value works in the Jayhawks' favor when playing a weaker
opponent.  Meanwhile, the mental toughness for UC Davis is strongly negative,
which works against them when playing a tougher opponent.  Taken at face
value, the margin for Kansas becomes 29.1 points.  The various Sagarin ratings
suggest margins in the 22.8 to 25.4 point range, with the "offense defense"
method being among the most favorable of those, suggesting a final score of
Kansas 88, UC Davis 63.

Massey gives Kansas a 21.0 point margin, with a 96 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 84, UC Davis 63.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 22.9 units, as well as
the better adjusted defense by 7.0 units.  Those combine to a 29.9 units
advantage for Kansas.  With the average adjusted tempo being 69.4 possessions,
the margin would be 20.8 points.  The final score would then be Kansas 83,
UC Davis 62.  By the way, UC Davis is Pomeroy's lowest ranked team in the
tournament.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 22.5 point margin, with a Vegas implied final score
of Kansas 83, UC Davis 61.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in seven out of eight categories; UC Davis attempts 0.044 more free
throws per field goal attempt.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in six of the seven categories; UC Davis holds opponents to 3.7
fewer points per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 29.5 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at
22.5 points, so he is picking Kansas in both the game and against the spread.
His total points is a mere 139, suggesting a final score of Kansas 84,
UC Davis 55.  Meanwhile, the Vegas total is 145.5, suggesting a final score of
Kansas 84, UC Davis 61.5 (you pick the rounding).  Interesting that the score
for Kansas is 84 either way, despite the rather different prognostications.

Real Time gives Kansas a measley 13.0 point margin, with a 74.9 percent 
probability of winning the game, and a final score of Kansas 81, UC Davis 68.

Kansas dropped to #3 in the RPI behind Villanova and Arizona, according to
Collegiate Basketball News.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 22.64 point margin, with a 97.4 percent probability of
winning, and a final score of Kansas 86, UC Davis 63.

Colley gives Kansas a 23.1 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 21.3 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously.

The new and improved BPI gives Kansas a 27.2 point margin, with a 98.3 percent
probability of winning.

Kansas dropped a spot in the LRMC to #7.

Seven Overtimes has only 13 game predictions up out of 16 games today, and the
Kansas versus UC Davis game is among the 3 missing, presumably because the
game involves a "First Four" opponent (the Kansas State versus Cincinnati
prediction is also missing) and he simply hasn't gotten around to updating his
database.  So much for his commitment to college basketball during its prime
portion of the season.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 16.0 point margin.

There is one common opponent, namely Long Beach State, who UC Davis played
both home and away as part of the Big West Conference, giving us two scores
to compare:

KU  +30 LBSU at home (+27 neutral court)     KU  +30 LBSU at home (+27 neutral court)
UCD  -9 LBSU on road ( -6 neutral court)     UCD  +4 LBSU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +33 UCD  neutral (+33 neutral court)     KU  +26 UCD  neutral (+26 neutral court)

Both comparisons favor Kansas rather significantly, with the average being
29.5 points.

Players to watch:  Guard Brynton Lemar plays the most minutes and scores the most
points.  Forward Chima Moneke grabs the most rebounds and blocks the most shots,
but also commits the most turnovers.  Guard Darius Graham dishes the most assists.
Guard Lawrence White is their leading thief.  Forward John Adenrele commits the
most personal fouls.

So, the various prognostications range from a 13 point win (Real Time) to a 29.5 point
win (Dunkel, common opponents).  The average is 23.5 points in favor of Kansas,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 85, UC Davis 62.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   #  8   #  7   #  3   #  3   +0.3    6.7   -0.04 +/- 0.13   -0.13 +/- 0.13
UC Davis       #199   #264   #202   #188   #182   -0.2    9.1   +0.08 +/- 0.17   -0.51 +/- 0.26
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  5  #  2   # 10   #  7   #  6  #  4    #  8    #  3   # 33   #  3   # 29
UC Davis       #135  #272   #216   #300   #212  #252    #159    #138   #320   #155   #307
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----
Kansas         #  2   #  2   # 11   #  2   #  3   #  2   #  3   1.168   28-4 
UC Davis       #164   #163   #218   #163   #157   #139   #174  -0.419   23-12
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  2  # 22    #  5  #  6    # 10  # 12    #  7  #  3    # 16  #  9    # 11  # 24
UC Davis       #169  #314    #215  #314    #215  #314    #198  #323    #195  #152    #198  #338

Here is Kansas' season, including the higher seeded opponent in the
tournament bracket, along with the cumulative probability of reaching
that level and ultimately winning the national championship (3.0 percent):

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 31 Indiana                     99 103    +6.83   -10.83
NEUT   #  8 Duke                        77  75    +0.00    +2.00
HOME   #174 Siena                       86  65   +23.82    -2.82
HOME   #168 UAB                         83  63   +23.39    -3.39
HOME   # 58 Georgia                     65  54   +13.39    -2.39
HOME   #128 NC Asheville                95  57   +21.09   +16.91
HOME   #204 Long Beach State            91  61   +26.24    +3.76
HOME   # 88 Stanford                    89  74   +17.43    -2.43
HOME   #233 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +27.84   +15.16
HOME   # 98 Nebraska                    89  72   +18.27    -1.27
HOME   # 83 Davidson                    89  71   +16.89    +1.11
AWAY   #223 UNLV                        71  53   +21.13    -3.13
AWAY   # 40 TCU                         86  80    +5.10    +0.90
HOME   # 33 Kansas State                90  88   +10.10    -8.10
HOME   # 38 Texas Tech                  85  68   +11.12    +5.88
AWAY   # 60 Oklahoma                    81  70    +7.40    +3.60
HOME   # 23 Oklahoma State              87  80    +6.79    +0.21
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                  76  72    -1.06    +5.06
HOME   # 62 Texas                       79  67   +13.60    -1.60
AWAY   #  4 West Virginia               69  85    -4.45   -11.55
AWAY   #  5 Kentucky                    79  73    -4.14   +10.14
HOME   # 16 Baylor                      73  68    +5.06    -0.06
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                  89  92    +5.00    -8.00
AWAY   # 33 Kansas State                74  71    +4.04    -1.04
AWAY   # 38 Texas Tech                  80  79    +5.06    -4.06
HOME   #  4 West Virginia               84  80    +1.61    +2.39
AWAY   # 16 Baylor                      67  65    -1.00    +3.00
HOME   # 40 TCU                         87  68   +11.16    +7.84
AWAY   # 62 Texas                       77  67    +7.54    +2.46
HOME   # 60 Oklahoma                    73  63   +13.46    -3.46
AWAY   # 23 Oklahoma State              90  85    +0.73    +4.27
NEUT   # 40 TCU                         82  85    +8.13   -11.13
NEUT   #202 UC Davis                             +22.78             0.998    0.998
NEUT   # 28 Miami-Florida                         +6.51             0.763    0.761
NEUT   # 12 Purdue                                +1.21             0.553    0.421
NEUT   #  6 Louisville                            -0.69             0.470    0.198
NEUT   #  2 North Carolina                        -2.09             0.409    0.081
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                               -3.10             0.367    0.030

Here is UC Davis' season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #161 Tennessee State             64  78    -2.77   -11.23
AWAY   #117 Santa Clara                 63  58    -8.17   +13.17
NEUT   #321 Northern Arizona            89  76    +9.42    +3.58
Div2        Holy Names                  89  75
NEUT   #297 Sacramento State            81  72    +6.43    +2.57
NEUT   #171 Weber State                 58  86    -2.14   -25.86
NEUT   #244 Drake                       64  58    +2.78    +3.22
NEUT   #100 Oakland-Mich.               66  79    -7.39    -5.61
AWAY   #215 Idaho                       66  68    -2.11    +0.11
AWAY   # 52 California                  61  86   -15.93    -9.07
AWAY   #162 North Dakota State          70  74    -5.80    +1.80
NAIA        William Jessup              87  64
AWAY   #208 Air Force                   67  77    -2.48    -7.52
AWAY   #280 Seattle                     72  65    +1.86    +5.14
HOME   #177 Utah Valley                 83  69    +1.07   +12.93
HOME   #313 UC Santa Barbara            73  47   +11.07   +14.93
HOME   #289 Cal Poly-SLO                68  64    +8.79    -4.79
AWAY   #295 UC Riverside                55  61    +3.23    -9.23
AWAY   #255 CS Northridge               71  68    +0.34    +2.66
AWAY   #242 Hawai'i                     76  70    -0.37    +6.37
HOME   #123 UC Irvine                   74  65    -1.87   +10.87
AWAY   #289 Cal Poly-SLO                70  74    +2.73    -6.73
AWAY   #313 UC Santa Barbara            67  64    +5.01    -2.01
HOME   #250 CS Fullerton                74  65    +6.05    +2.95
HOME   #295 UC Riverside                77  63    +9.29    +4.71
AWAY   #204 Long Beach State            69  78    -2.60    -6.40
AWAY   #250 CS Fullerton                72  79    -0.01    -6.99
HOME   #255 CS Northridge               96  85    +6.40    +4.60
HOME   #204 Long Beach State            75  71    +3.46    +0.54
HOME   #242 Hawai'i                     68  59    +5.69    +3.31
AWAY   #123 UC Irvine                   49  79    -7.93   -22.07
NEUT   #289 Cal Poly-SLO                66  55    +5.76    +5.24
NEUT   #250 CS Fullerton                66  64    +3.02    -1.02
NEUT   #123 UC Irvine                   50  47    -4.90    +7.90
NEUT   #184 NC Central                  67  63    -1.58    +5.58
NEUT   #  7 Kansas                               -22.78             0.002