5 things that give me pause and 5 things that give me hope

With respect to our bracket and our notional path to the Final Four, here are 5 things that give me pause and 5 things that give me hope:

(Pause)

* The 2nd-round game in Tulsa will be no gimme. Miami beat UNC and Duke at home this year (and Virginia at UVA's arena). Michigan State has no elite wins, but Sparty's victories over Wichita State, Wisconsin, and Michigan signify that they can bring it.

* Izzo in the tourney? Even if his rep outpaces his actual record, no one likes seeing that draw, even in a down year for Sparty. Much less in the opening weekend! As for Miami, they have athletes and are battle-hardened from the ACC. Larranaga is underrated as a coach, and Miami under him traditionally performs well with upsets over highly-ranked teams. He is rock-solid and will devise a strong game plan should they advance to face us. Do not take him lightly.

* Iowa State would be a sickening draw for the Sweet 16 game. Obviously, we all know them well--as the team that ended our venerable home-winning streak, the team with a solid inside/outside attack, and the hot Big 12 team coming off of their post-season championship at Sprint. They've beaten KU, Baylor, WVU, and Miami this season, and only lost by one bucket on a neutral court to Gonzaga. And they and their fans LOVE the Sprint Center. It's their home away from Hilton, the fans travel exceptionally well to KC, and any semblance of a KU home-court edge by virtue of drawing KC will be heavily negated should we get them. In sum, this is NOT a game any team of KU's caliber would welcome as a Sweet 16 game. But you have to face good teams to advance, so it is what it is.

* As for Purdue, that game could be a major challenge. They're 10-5 on road or neutral courts, they have beef inside (7'2, 6'9, 6'8 for their key bigs), they have a NPOY back-carrying type player in Swanigan, they are a hair better than KU as a 3-point shooting team (40.6 vs. 40.5 FG %), and their two forwards (Swanigan and Vince Edwards) can both step out of the paint and hit from deep (both are formidable 43% 3PG shooters, which puts them behind only Frank Mason for KU shooters in that category). This looks like a challenging game on paper, but if given a choice I'd take it over drawing Iowa State in a rubber match.

* Louisville is a matchup nightmare for a KU team whose primary go-to player (Mason) is a dribble-drive-finish machine. Facing Louisville's immense length (four "minutes players" stand 7'0, 6'10, 6'10, and 6'9) in a packed and very active ZONE defense, Frank could have major trouble penetrating and getting off shots against height and long arms. KU would very well be forced to win this game largely from outside. Live and die by the 3, as it were. Having seen many a KU tourney exit where the latter did us in, this game would give me major concerns, if not outright nightmares. Throw in the HoF coach (Pitino) and the fact that he's playing 9+ guys in a depth-oriented fresh-legs attack, and it would only deepen my anxiety. Again, though, you have to win tough games against solid teams to get to the Promised Land.

(Hope)

* KU is no slouch away from AFH this year. The Hawks are 14-3 in games on the road or in neutral sites.

* KU has gotten it done against high-caliber competition this season, going 8-2 vs. teams ranked 1-50 and 4-0 vs. teams ranked in the top 15. By contrast, Miami is 4-10 (top 50) and 2-6 (top 15); Michigan State is 5-9 (top 50) and 0-4 (top 15).

* Miami is 4-6 and 3-3 (7-9) in road/neutral site games; Michigan State is no better at 2-8 and 3-4 (5-12). These are very beatable teams! If we can't get out of Tulsa, we don't deserve to have any respect, and we deserve, in fact, to be ridiculed nationally by those who point to what they believe are far too many early KU washouts.

* Frank and Landen. Senior leaders who don't want to go out shedding tears on the bench. Devonte and Svi were also part of the team that lost that heartbreaker to Villanova last year. They'll be pumped and primed to not allow that to happen this time.

* Jackson as X factor. Here's hoping Josh has a Danny-like tournament, and just blows the ceiling off. Albeit within the KU attack, not as someone who thinks he has to do it all. And by blowing the ceiling off, I don't just mean scoring nicely in all games. I mean doing everything 100% -- rebounds, steals, blocks, deflections, assists. (And yes, hitting those damn free throws)

There are other "positives" to be added here, but the Matt Tait article that Porthawk posted did a nice job elaborating on all of those. (I agree with every single one of them, and hope all are in play from now through Arizona's net-cutting ceremony!)

Rock Chalk...