predictions for TCU game

Let the Madness begin.

Sagarin gives Kansas an 8.3 point margin, with an 87.1 percent probability of
winning the game.  The two teams average 149.0 points, so the suggested final
score is Kansas 79, TCU 70, with the rounding working to the Jayhawks' favor.
Kansas has played an average of 0.4 points above expectation, while TCU has
played an average of 0.7 points above expectation, which decreases the margin
for Kansas to just 8.0 points.  Kansas is the conference's most consistent
team, while TCU is the conference's third-most consistent team, differing by
1.6 points.  Kansas has played just 4 out of 31 games below expectation by
more than 8.3 points (West Virginia road game, Indiana, Iowa State home game,
and Kansas State home game), which would be enough to lose today's game,
corresponding to a 12.9 percent chance of losing.  Meanwhile, TCU has played
7 out of 31 Division I games above expectation by more than 8.3 points,
including their most recent game, which would be enough to win today's game,
corresponding to a 22.6 percent chance of the Horned Frogs winning.  Those
two average to a 17.7 percent chance of Kansas losing the game, slightly more
pessimistic than the 12.9 percent chance of losing derived from the Sagarin
Predictor ratings.  The trend for Kansas is essentially flat, while the trend
for TCU is negative, though not statistically significant.  Both teams have
negative mental toughness ratings, with the value for Kansas being of marginal
significance and the value for TCU being quite significant.  That works in the
Jayhawks' favor, increasing the margin to 9.9 points.  The various Sagarin
rating methods produce a range of margins from 7.8 to 11.2 points, with the
"offense-defense" method favoring Kansas by 8.0 points, suggesting a final
score of Kansas 79, TCU 71.  But one must ask the question, how many points is
Josh Jackson worth?

Massey gives Kansas a 10.0 point margin, with an 83 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 80, TCU 70.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 8.1 units, as well as
the better adjusted defense by 3.0 units.  Those combine to an 11.1 units
advantage for Kansas.  With the average adjusted tempo being 69.0 possessions,
the margin would be just 7.7 points.  The final score would then be Kansas 77,
TCU 69.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 7.5 point underdog, with a Vegas implied final score
of Kansas 78.5 (you pick the rounding), TCU 71.  Among the key offensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in seven out of eight categories; TCU dishes 0.4 more
assists per game.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in
four of the seven categories; TCU holds opponents to 2.3 fewer points per game,
blocks 0.2 more shots per game, and commits 0.7 fewer personal fouls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 10.5 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at
7.0 points, so he is picking Kansas in both the game and against the spread.
His total points is 154, suggesting a final score of Kansas 82, TCU 72.
Meanwhile, the Vegas total is 148.5, suggesting a final score of Kansas 78,
TCU 71.

Real Time gives Kansas a 9.0 point margin, with a 67.2 percent probability
of winning the game, and a final score of Kansas 80, TCU 71.

Kansas remains #2 in the RPI behind Villanova, according to Collegiate
Basketball News.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 7.8 point margin, with a 74.9 percent probability of
winning, and a final score of Kansas 79, TCU 71.

No update from Don Davis.

Colley gives Kansas a 15.3 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 9.2 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously.

The new and improved BPI gives Kansas an 11.4 point margin, with an 85.3 percent
probability of winning.

Kansas dropped a spot in the LRMC to #6.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 15.0 point margin, an 88 percent probability of
winning, and projects a final score of Kansas 82, TCU 67.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 7.7 point margin.

There are nine common opponents, eight in conference, plus UNLV.  I'll use the
home-home and road-road permutations for the regular season conference games,
both Kansas games with Oklahoma to compare against TCU's conference tournament
game against Oklahoma, giving us twenty-one scores to compare:

KU  +18 UNLV on road (+21 neutral court)
TCU  +4 UNLV on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU  +14 TCU  neutral (+14 neutral court)

KU  +10 OU  at home ( +7 neutral court)     KU  +11 OU  on road (+14 neutral court)
TCU  +3 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)     TCU  -5 OU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU   +7 TCU neutral ( +7 neutral court)     KU  +16 TCU neutral (+16 neutral court)

KU  +10 OU  at home ( +7 neutral court)     KU  +11 OU  on road (+14 neutral court)
TCU +19 OU  neutral (+19 neutral court)     TCU +19 OU  neutral (+19 neutral court)
KU   -8 TCU neutral ( -8 neutral court)     KU   -5 TCU neutral ( -5 neutral court)

KU  -16 WVU on road (-13 neutral court)     KU   +4 WVU at home ( +1 neutral court)
TCU -12 WVU on road ( -9 neutral court)     TCU  -1 WVU at home ( -4 neutral court)
KU   -4 TCU neutral ( -4 neutral court)     KU   +5 TCU neutral ( +5 neutral court)

KU  +10 UT  on road (+13 neutral court)     KU  +12 UT  at home ( +9 neutral court)
TCU  +3 UT  on road ( +6 neutral court)     TCU +15 UT  at home (+12 neutral court)
KU   +7 TCU neutral ( +7 neutral court)     KU   -3 TCU neutral ( -3 neutral court)

KU   -3 ISU at home ( -6 neutral court)     KU   +4 ISU on road ( +7 neutral court)
TCU  +7 ISU at home ( +4 neutral court)     TCU -13 ISU on road (-10 neutral court)
KU  -10 TCU neutral (-10 neutral court)     KU  +17 TCU neutral (+17 neutral court)

KU   +1 TTU on road ( +4 neutral court)     KU  +17 TTU at home (+14 neutral court)
TCU  -6 TTU on road ( -3 neutral court)     TCU  +1 TTU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU   +7 TCU neutral ( +7 neutral court)     KU  +16 TCU neutral (+16 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  at home ( +2 neutral court)     KU   +2 BU  on road ( +5 neutral court)
TCU  -9 BU  at home (-12 neutral court)     TCU -18 BU  on road (-15 neutral court)
KU  +14 TCU neutral (+14 neutral court)     KU  +20 TCU neutral (+20 neutral court)

KU   +5 OSU on road ( +8 neutral court)     KU   +7 OSU at home ( +4 neutral court)
TCU -13 OSU on road (-10 neutral court)     TCU  -3 OSU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU  +18 TCU neutral (+18 neutral court)     KU  +10 TCU neutral (+10 neutral court)

KU   +3 KSU on road ( +6 neutral court)     KU   +2 KSU at home ( -1 neutral court)
TCU  +6 KSU on road ( +9 neutral court)     TCU  -1 KSU at home ( -4 neutral court)
KU   -3 TCU neutral ( -3 neutral court)     KU   +3 TCU neutral ( +3 neutral court)

KU  +19 TCU at home (+16 neutral court)     KU   +6 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU  +16 TCU neutral (+16 neutral court)     KU   +9 TCU neutral ( +9 neutral court)

Fifteen of the twenty-one comparisons favor Kansas, while six favor TCU, with the
average being 7.0 points in favor of Kansas.  Note that I have switched to using a
3 point home court advantage, down from the 4 points used during the regular season,
based on the end-of-regular-season analysis posted here recently.

Players to watch:  Guard Alex Robinson plays the most minutes, dishes the most
assists, and is their leading thief; forward Vladimir Brodziansky scores the most
points and blocks the most shots; guard Kenrich Williams grabs the most rebounds
but also commits the most personal fouls; guard Jaylen Fisher commits the most
turnovers.

So, the various prognostications range from a 15 point win (Colley and Seven Overtimes)
to a 7 point win (Vegas, common opponents).  The average is 9.5 points in favor of
Kansas, suggesting a final score of Kansas 79, TCU 70.

Rock Chalk!

And a closing quotation:
     
   "Things that are inevitable:  death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   #  6   #  8   #  3   #  3   +0.4    6.5   +0.03 +/- 0.13   -0.12 +/- 0.13
TCU            # 44   # 13   # 38   # 47   # 48   +0.7    8.1   -0.11 +/- 0.16   -0.25 +/- 0.13
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  2  #  1   #  9   #  6   #  6  #  3    #  4    #  1   # 31   #  1   # 18
TCU            # 56  # 28   # 38   # 15   # 48  # 31    # 69    # 84   # 35   #171   # 37
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1   #  1   #  8   #  1   #  2   #  1   #  1   1.215   28-3     #     #   
TCU            # 50   # 50   # 35   # 74   # 82   # 60   # 48   0.969   18-14    #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1  # 21    #  5  #  5    #  9  #  8    #  6  #  3    # 11  #  4    # 10  # 24
TCU            # 71  # 30    # 50  # 32    # 51  # 32    # 47  # 16    #116  # 13    # 61  # 30

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 31 Indiana                     99 103    +6.96   -10.96
NEUT   # 10 Duke                        77  75    +0.73    +1.27
HOME   #171 Siena                       86  65   +24.13    -3.13
HOME   #163 UAB                         83  63   +23.55    -3.55
HOME   # 53 Georgia                     65  54   +13.23    -2.23
HOME   #119 NC Asheville                95  57   +20.95   +17.05
HOME   #210 Long Beach State            91  61   +26.82    +3.18
HOME   # 89 Stanford                    89  74   +17.71    -2.71
HOME   #237 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +28.38   +14.62
HOME   # 97 Nebraska                    89  72   +18.47    -1.47
HOME   # 83 Davidson                    89  71   +17.10    +0.90
AWAY   #224 UNLV                        71  53   +21.57    -3.57
AWAY   # 38 TCU                         86  80    +5.26    +0.74
HOME   # 36 Kansas State                90  88   +11.09    -9.09
HOME   # 40 Texas Tech                  85  68   +11.40    +5.60
AWAY   # 58 Oklahoma                    81  70    +7.66    +3.34
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma State              87  80    +6.94    +0.06
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                  76  72    +0.16    +3.84
HOME   # 61 Texas                       79  67   +13.99    -1.99
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               69  85    -4.89   -11.11
AWAY   #  5 Kentucky                    79  73    -3.90    +9.90
HOME   # 15 Baylor                      73  68    +5.06    -0.06
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                  89  92    +6.22    -9.22
AWAY   # 36 Kansas State                74  71    +5.03    -2.03
AWAY   # 40 Texas Tech                  80  79    +5.34    -4.34
HOME   #  2 West Virginia               84  80    +1.17    +2.83
AWAY   # 15 Baylor                      67  65    -1.00    +3.00
HOME   # 38 TCU                         87  68   +11.32    +7.68
AWAY   # 61 Texas                       77  67    +7.93    +2.07
HOME   # 58 Oklahoma                    73  63   +13.72    -3.72
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma State              90  85    +0.88    +4.12
NEUT   # 38 TCU                                   +8.29             0.871

Here is TCU's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NAIA        St. Thomas (TX)             82  64
HOME   #341 Alabama State               98  62   +31.31    +4.69
HOME   #188 Jacksonville State          79  60   +16.89    +2.11
HOME   # 57 Illinois State              80  71    +5.35    +3.65
AWAY   #224 UNLV                        63  59   +13.28    -9.28
NEUT   #126 Washington                  93  80    +9.99    +3.01
HOME   #126 Washington                  86  71   +13.02    +1.98
HOME   #141 Arkansas State              77  54   +13.93    +9.07
AWAY   # 20 SMU                         59  74    -8.12    -6.88
HOME   #165 Wofford                     72  63   +15.30    -6.30
HOME   #203 Texas Southern              96  59   +18.11   +18.89
HOME   #211 Bradley                     74  42   +18.70   +13.30
HOME   #  8 Kansas                      80  86    -5.26    -0.74
HOME   # 58 Oklahoma                    60  57    +5.43    -2.43
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               70  82   -13.18    +1.18
AWAY   # 61 Texas                       64  61    -0.36    +3.36
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                  84  77    -2.07    +9.07
AWAY   # 40 Texas Tech                  69  75    -2.95    -3.05
HOME   # 15 Baylor                      53  62    -3.23    -5.77
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma State              76  89    -7.41    -5.59
HOME   # 79 Auburn                      80  88    +8.51   -16.51
AWAY   # 36 Kansas State                86  80    -3.26    +9.26
HOME   # 61 Texas                       78  63    +5.70    +9.30
HOME   # 40 Texas Tech                  62  61    +3.11    -2.11
AWAY   # 15 Baylor                      52  70    -9.29    -8.71
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma State              68  71    -1.35    -1.65
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                  71  84    -8.13    -4.87
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                      68  87   -11.32    -7.68
HOME   #  2 West Virginia               60  61    -7.12    +6.12
HOME   # 36 Kansas State                74  75    +2.80    -3.80
AWAY   # 58 Oklahoma                    68  73    -0.63    -4.37
NEUT   # 58 Oklahoma                    82  63    +2.40   +16.60
NEUT   #  8 Kansas                                -8.29             0.129