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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 18
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7 years 8 months ago #12208
by asteroid
"Things that are inevitable:
death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
--Doug Gottlieb
Order of Finish
---------------
As you can see, the initial projection was fairly close. West Virginia
couldn't duplicate their non-conference success and slipped to #2,
allowing Kansas to secure their record-tying 13th consecutive conference
championship. And Kansas State's super-weak non-conference schedule was
not a very good indicator that they would be better than Texas Tech or
TCU, finishing 6th instead of 8th, with Texas Tech and TCU each slipping
a spot.
Initial Projection Actual
------------------ --------------
1 West Virginia Kansas
2 Kansas West Virginia
3 Baylor Baylor
4 Iowa State Iowa State
5 Oklahoma State Oklahoma State
6 Texas Tech Kansas State
7 TCU Texas Tech
8 Kansas State TCU
9 Oklahoma Oklahoma
10 Texas Texas
Number of Wins
--------------
If you picked the Coach of the Year on the basis of how they did relative
to the initial projection, then Bill Self deserves the award, picking up
almost 2.7 more wins than expected based on the initial projection, which
in turn was based on non-conference performance.
Initial Actual Difference
------- ------ ----------
Kansas 13.34 16 +2.66
Iowa State 9.97 12 +2.03
Kansas State 6.26 8 +1.74
Baylor 11.51 12 +0.49
Oklahoma State 8.55 9 +0.45
Oklahoma 5.71 5 -0.71
Texas 5.04 4 -1.04
TCU 7.42 6 -1.42
Texas Tech 8.00 6 -2.00
West Virginia 14.20 12 -2.20
Conference Tournament
---------------------
The latest Sagarin Predictor ratings lead to the following predictions:
TCU over OU by 1.5 on Wed 6:00 p.m. ESPNU
TT over UT by 3.3 on Wed 8:00 p.m. + ESPNU
ISU over OSU by 0.7 on Thu 11:30 a.m. ESPN2
KU over TCU by 8.8 on Thu 1:30 p.m. + ESPN2 -OR-
KU over OU by 10.3 on Thu 1:30 p.m. + ESPN2
WVU over TTU by 9.9 on Thu 6:00 p.m. ESPNU -OR-
WVU over UT by 13.2 on Thu 6:00 p.m. ESPNU
BU over KSU by 6.0 on Thu 8:00 p.m. + ESPNU
The nominal schedule has tip-offs two hours apart. We should know better
than that. Games run two hours, and there will be 30 minutes between games,
so the 1:30 p.m. and 8:00 p.m tips will be later than that. Friday's games
are at 6 and 8 p.m., with Saturday's finale at 5 p.m.
Best Prognosticators
--------------------
Jeff Sagarin edged out Vegas this year, with his predicted margins being off
by an average of just 6.1 points per game. To clarify, note that I computed
the margins myself directly from the Predictor ratings, using the home court
advantage in effect at the time. I did NOT use his new offense-defense
method predictions. Honorable mention to ESPN's BPI, which made its debut
one-third of the way through the conference season and therefore doesn't
qualify for the season crown, but its margins were off by an average of 5.9
points per game. Of course, one could expect the ratings to become more
reliable the later in the season you get, so the BPI had that advantage.
Over the same 60-game interval, Sagarin's margins were off by an average of
just 5.7 points, so better than the BPI.
It should be noted that we're doing an apples to oranges comparison to a
certain extent, because the Sagarin computations were done to a tenth of a
point, while the Vegas predictions are to the half point, and Massey only
does integer scores, as does Seven Overtimes. That is, had Massey done
predictions to a tenth of a point, he could have possibly won. So it's
really a toss-up between most of the prognosticators. Colley, Dunkel, and
Real Time need to go back to the drawing board. Considering that Dunkel
has been at it since 1929, it would appear that his descendents haven't kept
up with the times.
ESPN BPI 5.9 (only available the last 60 of the 90 games)
Sagarin Predictor 6.1
Vegas 6.2 (according to Dunkel; quantized to a half point)
Massey 6.2 (quantized to a full point)
Pomeroy 6.3
Greenfield 6.3 (quantized to a half point)
Dolphin 6.3
Whitlock 6.4
myself 6.5 (Sagarin Predictor modified by performance)
Crotistics 6.5
myself 6.5 (Sagarin Predictor modified by performance and Big 12 home court)
myself 6.7 (Sagarin Predictor modified by trend analysis)
Seven Overtimes 6.7 (quantized to a full point)
Real Time RPI 7.3 (due to inconsistency between web pages, I tracked only 50 of the 90 games)
Dunkel 7.8 (quantized to a half point)
Colley 7.8
As you can see, none of my modifications to Sagarin Predictor actually improved
things, on average. Then again, the trend and mental toughness statistics rarely
have any statistical significance to them. But be careful how you interpret that
statement. Just because a trend statistic doesn't have any statistical significance
doesn't mean that a team hasn't gotten better over the season. Rather, it's a
measure of how much better a team has gotten relative to the opponents. That is,
if all teams get better, then the relative trend remains close to zero.
As for the home court correction, I used 3.55 points, as the home court advantage in
the Big 12 has historically been larger than the national average, whereas the Sagarin
value stayed closer to the 3.0 to 3.1 points range this season. As you'll see below,
the home court in the Big 12 this season was worth only 2.69 points, the lowest it has
been since I started tracking the value. And that's why my use of 3.55 made matters
worse rather than better.
Road Wins
---------
35 road wins may be a record. The long term average has been right around
30 road wins per season, give or take a couple.
Road wins (35 out of 90) Home losses
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------
8 Kansas TCU OU ISU KSU TTU BU UT OSU 1 Kansas ISU
5 Iowa State OSU OU KU KSU TTU 2 Baylor KSU KU
5 Oklahoma State TTU OU WVU TCU KSU 2 Iowa State KU WVU
5 West Virginia OSU UT ISU OU TCU 2 West Virginia OU OSU
5 Baylor OU KSU TCU OSU UT 3 Texas Tech OSU KU ISU
4 Kansas State OSU BU UT TCU 5 Oklahoma State WVU ISU KSU BU KU
2 TCU UT KSU 5 Texas TCU WVU KSU KU BU
1 Oklahoma WVU 5 Kansas State BU TCU KU ISU OSU
0 Texas 5 Oklahoma BU KU ISU OSU WVU
0 Texas Tech 5 TCU KU BU OSU WVU KSU
Note how the differential mimics the actual standings.
Differential (RW-HL)
--------------------
+7 Kansas
+3 Iowa State
+3 West Virginia
+3 Baylor
0 Oklahoma State
-1 Kansas State
-3 TCU
-3 Texas Tech
-4 Oklahoma
-5 Texas
Other Statistics
----------------
The inconsistency for Kansas is an insanely low 6.5 points.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
West Virginia +1.23 Kansas 6.48
Oklahoma State +1.08 TCU 7.61
TCU +0.66 Texas Tech 7.82
Iowa State +0.62 Baylor 8.07
Baylor +0.43 Kansas State 9.47
Kansas +0.35 Texas 9.60
Kansas State +0.26 Iowa State 10.99
Texas Tech +0.19 Oklahoma 11.01
Oklahoma -0.49 West Virginia 12.11
Texas -0.75 Oklahoma State 12.46
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Oklahoma +0.28 +/- 0.23 Baylor +0.16 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma State +0.17 +/- 0.27 Texas +0.13 +/- 0.18
Texas +0.10 +/- 0.20 Kansas State +0.09 +/- 0.15
Kansas +0.03 +/- 0.13 Oklahoma State +0.04 +/- 0.20
Baylor -0.07 +/- 0.17 Oklahoma -0.01 +/- 0.19
Texas Tech -0.13 +/- 0.16 Texas Tech -0.11 +/- 0.11
Iowa State -0.18 +/- 0.23 Kansas -0.12 +/- 0.13
Kansas State -0.19 +/- 0.19 West Virginia -0.13 +/- 0.18
TCU -0.23 +/- 0.16 Iowa State -0.17 +/- 0.17
West Virginia -0.45 +/- 0.23 TCU -0.23 +/- 0.16
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Oklahoma State 84.90 Baylor 63.27 Oklahoma State 162.43 West Virginia +15.84
West Virginia 83.26 West Virginia 67.42 Kansas 154.71 Kansas +9.87
Kansas 82.29 Texas Tech 67.84 Iowa State 152.30 Iowa State +8.17
Iowa State 80.23 Kansas State 67.87 West Virginia 150.68 Baylor +8.13
Texas Tech 73.42 Texas 70.00 Oklahoma 147.20 Oklahoma State +7.37
Oklahoma 72.90 TCU 70.37 TCU 143.23 Texas Tech +5.58
TCU 72.87 Iowa State 72.07 Texas Tech 141.26 Kansas State +4.29
Kansas State 72.16 Kansas 72.42 Kansas State 140.03 TCU +2.50
Baylor 71.40 Oklahoma 74.30 Texas 137.39 Oklahoma -1.40
Texas 67.39 Oklahoma State 77.53 Baylor 134.67 Texas -2.61
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma 83.00 ( 1)
Oklahoma State 82.70 ( 2)
Texas 82.52 ( 3)
Baylor 82.34 ( 4)
Iowa State 82.27 ( 5)
Kansas 81.72 ( 7)
TCU 80.96 (13)
Kansas State 80.00 (23)
West Virginia 79.44 (33)
Texas Tech 78.77 (45)
Home Court Advantage
--------------------
Calling it the "Home Court Advantage" is a bit of a misnomer. A swap
of venue actually combines the home court advantage with the road court
disadvantage. If a swap of venue causes the margin to swing by 10 points,
is it because the home court advantage was 5 points for both teams, or
was it really a 6 point advantage for one team and just a 4 point advantage
for the other team? The only way to tell is to play a bunch of neutral
court games, and the closest we have to that is the conference tournament,
which many would argue represents a home court advantage for Kansas, Iowa
State, and Kansas State whenever the tournament is played in Kansas City.
Also the number of games is too small to achieve any sort of statistical
significance. So using the tournament isn't going to help us achieve the
goal of measuring the true home court advantage. However, over the course
of the season, everybody plays on everybody else's home court, so the
average "swap of venue" value for each team includes the average road court
disadvantage for the opponents (well, not quite; Kansas doesn't have to
play on the road court of Kansas, for example, but it is an average of nine
out of the ten road courts, which is the best we can do under the
circumstances). So it's as close as we're going to come to measuring the
home court advantage for each team. The results? Well, Hilton Magic isn't
so magical. The Octogon of Doom? Hardly. And Allen Field House takes a
back seat to the West Virginia Coliseum and a grocery store court.
Team 1 Team 2 1@H 2@H Diff
-------------- -------------- --- --- ----
Oklahoma Kansas State +30 -11 +41
West Virginia Baylor +21 -9 +30
West Virginia Kansas State +19 -4 +23
Iowa State TCU +13 -7 +20
Kansas West Virginia +4 -16 +20
Texas Tech Oklahoma +8 -9 +17
Kansas Texas Tech +17 +1 +16
Oklahoma State Texas +13 -3 +16
Kansas State Texas Tech +13 -1 +14
Texas Tech Texas +10 -4 +14
Kansas TCU +19 +6 +13
West Virginia Texas +15 +2 +13
TCU Texas +15 +3 +12
Iowa State Oklahoma +16 +5 +11
West Virginia TCU +12 +1 +11
Iowa State Texas +9 -2 +11
Oklahoma State TCU +13 +3 +10
West Virginia Texas Tech +9 -1 +10
Baylor Texas Tech +4 -6 +10
Baylor TCU +18 +9 +9
Oklahoma TCU +5 -3 +8
Texas Tech TCU +6 -1 +7
Iowa State Texas Tech +7 +2 +5 <- median value; average 5.38 +/- 1.89 for venue swap
Oklahoma Texas +4 -1 +5
Iowa State Baylor +3 -2 +5
Kansas Baylor +5 +2 +3
Kansas Texas +12 +10 +2
Kansas Oklahoma State +7 +5 +2
Oklahoma State Oklahoma +4 +2 +2
Baylor Oklahoma State +4 +3 +1
Kansas State Texas +3 +3 0
Kansas Kansas State +2 +3 -1
Baylor Texas +10 +11 -1
Kansas Oklahoma +10 +11 -1
West Virginia Iowa State +11 +13 -2
Oklahoma State Texas Tech +17 +19 -2
Iowa State Kansas State +5 +8 -3
TCU Kansas State -1 +6 -7
Kansas Iowa State -3 +4 -7
Iowa State Oklahoma State +3 +10 -7
Kansas State Baylor -9 +2 -11
West Virginia Oklahoma -2 +11 -13
Baylor Oklahoma +6 +26 -20
Oklahoma State Kansas State -8 +12 -20
West Virginia Oklahoma State -7 +17 -24
By team:
Texas Tech
----------
Texas Tech Oklahoma +8 -9 +17
Kansas Texas Tech +17 +1 +16
Kansas State Texas Tech +13 -1 +14
Texas Tech Texas +10 -4 +14
West Virginia Texas Tech +9 -1 +10 <- median value; average 10.11 +/- 2.02 for venue swap
Baylor Texas Tech +4 -6 +10
Texas Tech TCU +6 -1 +7
Iowa State Texas Tech +7 +2 +5
Oklahoma State Texas Tech +17 +19 -2
TCU
---
Iowa State TCU +13 -7 +20
Kansas TCU +19 +6 +13
TCU Texas +15 +3 +12
West Virginia TCU +12 +1 +11
Oklahoma State TCU +13 +3 +10 <- median value; average 9.22 +/- 2.39 for venue swap
Baylor TCU +18 +9 +9
Oklahoma TCU +5 -3 +8
Texas Tech TCU +6 -1 +7
TCU Kansas State -1 +6 -7
Texas
-----
Oklahoma State Texas +13 -3 +16
Texas Tech Texas +10 -4 +14
West Virginia Texas +15 +2 +13
TCU Texas +15 +3 +12
Iowa State Texas +9 -2 +11 <- median value; average 8.00 +/- 2.17 for venue swap
Oklahoma Texas +4 -1 +5
Kansas Texas +12 +10 +2
Kansas State Texas +3 +3 0
Baylor Texas +10 +11 -1
West Virginia
-------------
West Virginia Baylor +21 -9 +30
West Virginia Kansas State +19 -4 +23
Kansas West Virginia +4 -16 +20
West Virginia Texas +15 +2 +13
West Virginia TCU +12 +1 +11 <- median value; average 7.56 +/- 5.84 for venue swap
West Virginia Texas Tech +9 -1 +10
West Virginia Iowa State +11 +13 -2
West Virginia Oklahoma -2 +11 -13
West Virginia Oklahoma State -7 +17 -24
Oklahoma
--------
Oklahoma Kansas State +30 -11 +41
Texas Tech Oklahoma +8 -9 +17
Iowa State Oklahoma +16 +5 +11
Oklahoma TCU +5 -3 +8
Oklahoma Texas +4 -1 +5 <- median value; average 5.56 +/- 5.86 for venue swap
Oklahoma State Oklahoma +4 +2 +2
Kansas Oklahoma +10 +11 -1
West Virginia Oklahoma -2 +11 -13
Baylor Oklahoma +6 +26 -20
Kansas
------
Kansas West Virginia +4 -16 +20
Kansas Texas Tech +17 +1 +16
Kansas TCU +19 +6 +13
Kansas Baylor +5 +2 +3
Kansas Texas +12 +10 +2 <- median value; average 5.22 +/- 3.00 for venue swap
Kansas Oklahoma State +7 +5 +2
Kansas Kansas State +2 +3 -1
Kansas Oklahoma +10 +11 -1
Kansas Iowa State -3 +4 -7
Kansas State
------------
Oklahoma Kansas State +30 -11 +41
West Virginia Kansas State +19 -4 +23
Kansas State Texas Tech +13 -1 +14
Kansas State Texas +3 +3 0
Kansas Kansas State +2 +3 -1 <- median value; average 4.00 +/- 6.28 for venue swap
Iowa State Kansas State +5 +8 -3
TCU Kansas State -1 +6 -7
Kansas State Baylor -9 +2 -11
Oklahoma State Kansas State -8 +12 -20
Iowa State
----------
Iowa State TCU +13 -7 +20
Iowa State Oklahoma +16 +5 +11
Iowa State Texas +9 -2 +11
Iowa State Texas Tech +7 +2 +5
Iowa State Baylor +3 -2 +5 <- median value; average 3.67 +/- 3.08 for venue swap
West Virginia Iowa State +11 +13 -2
Iowa State Kansas State +5 +8 -3
Kansas Iowa State -3 +4 -7
Iowa State Oklahoma State +3 +10 -7
Baylor
------
West Virginia Baylor +21 -9 +30
Baylor Texas Tech +4 -6 +10
Baylor TCU +18 +9 +9
Iowa State Baylor +3 -2 +5
Kansas Baylor +5 +2 +3 <- median value; average 2.89 +/- 4.66 for venue swap
Baylor Oklahoma State +4 +3 +1
Baylor Texas +10 +11 -1
Kansas State Baylor -9 +2 -11
Baylor Oklahoma +6 +26 -20
Oklahoma State
--------------
Oklahoma State Texas +13 -3 +16
Oklahoma State TCU +13 +3 +10
Kansas Oklahoma State +7 +5 +2
Oklahoma State Oklahoma +4 +2 +2
Baylor Oklahoma State +4 +3 +1 <- median value; average -2.44 +/- 4.31 for venue swap
Oklahoma State Texas Tech +17 +19 -2
Iowa State Oklahoma State +3 +10 -7
Oklahoma State Kansas State -8 +12 -20
West Virginia Oklahoma State -7 +17 -24
Crotistics computes a team-specific home court advantage, though discussions with
other hoops fans have identified some flaws in his methodology. Here's a comparison.
The "Above" column simply repeats the value shown above. The "HCA" column is just
half of the "Above" column. "HOMEADV" is the team-specific value that Crotistics
says should be added to the national average home court advantage of 3.5 points,
which is what the "Crotistics" column shows. The comparison should involve the
"HCA" and "Crotistics" columns, and as you can see, there is a very poor correlation.
Above HCA HOMEADV Crotistics
----- ----- ---------- ----------
Texas Tech 10.11 5.06 0.65 4.15
TCU 9.22 4.61 0.85 4.35
Texas 8.00 4.00 0.64 4.14
West Virginia 7.56 3.78 1.20 4.70
Oklahoma 5.56 2.78 0.77 4.27
Kansas 5.22 2.61 0.69 4.19
Kansas State 4.00 2.00 0.58 4.08
Iowa State 3.67 1.84 0.94 4.44
Baylor 2.89 1.45 0.66 4.16
Oklahoma State -2.44 -1.22 0.52 4.02
How does this year's "swap of venue" value compare with last year's? Oklahoma State
was best last year, worst this year. Baylor has been bad both years. TCU has been
good both years. Kansas was just below the average this year, while just above the
average last year.
2017 2016
----- -----
Texas Tech 10.11 6.78
TCU 9.22 9.89
Texas 8.00 1.89
West Virginia 7.56 7.67
Oklahoma 5.56 9.56
Big 12 average 5.38 7.29
Kansas 5.22 7.67
Kansas State 4.00 10.89
Iowa State 3.67 5.78
Baylor 2.89 -0.22
Oklahoma State -2.44 13.00
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, JRhawk, jayhawk969, porthawk
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