predictions for Oklahoma game

Trap game?  Sole ownership of the conference championship has been locked up.
But, hey, it's Senior Night, and one of those seniors is Frank Mason.  Let's
do this.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 13.5 point margin, with a 93.0 percent probability of
winning the game.  The two teams average 151.3 points, so the suggested final
score is Kansas 82, Oklahoma 69.  Kansas has played an average of 0.4 points
above expectation, while Oklahoma has played an average of 0.6 points below
expectation, which increases the margin for Kansas to 14.5 points.  Kansas has
been more consistent than Oklahoma by 4.4 points.  The Jayhawks have played no
games more than 13.5 points below expectation, so it would take the poorest
performance of the season to lose today's game.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma has played
2 out of 28 games above expectation by more than 13.5 points, including their
most recent outing against Kansas State, and that was done without Woodard as
well.  That corresponds to a 7 percent chance of Oklahoma winning the game.
Those two odds average to just a 3.6 percent chance of Kansas losing the game,
even more optimistic than the probability derived from the Sagarin Predictor
ratings.  Both teams have positive trends; the value for Kansas is not
statistically significant, whereas the value for Oklahoma is marginally
significant, though caused by Saturday's trouncing of the Wildcats.  Both teams
also have negative mental toughness ratings.  This time the value for Oklahoma
is not statistically significant, whereas it is marginally so for Kansas, though
that helps the Jayhawks when playing a weaker opponent.  Taken at face value,
the margin for Kansas would be 13.9 points.  The new Sagarin "offense-defense"
method favors Kansas by 14.6 points, with a final score of Kansas 86, Oklahoma 71.

Massey gives Kansas a 14.0 point margin, with a 91 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 85, Oklahoma 71.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 14.2 units, as well as
the better adjusted defense by 1.0 units.  Those combine to a 15.2 units advantage
for Kansas.  With the average adjusted tempo being 70.6 possessions, the margin
would be 10.7 points, increasing to 13.7 points after including Sagarin's 3.0 point
home court advantage.  The final score would then be Kansas 81, Oklahoma 67.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 14.5 point margin, with a Vegas implied final score
of Kansas 83, Oklahoma 68.5 (you pick the rounding).  Among the key offensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven out of eight categories; Oklahoma
attempts 0.002 more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the key defensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in six of the seven categories; Oklahoma blocks
0.1 more balls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a whopping 23.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line
is at 13.5 points, so he is picking Kansas in both the game and against the
spread.  His total points is 144, suggesting a final score of Kansas 83.5,
Oklahoma 60.5 (you pick the roundings).  Meanwhile, the Vegas total is 153.0,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 83, Oklahoma 70.

Real Time gives Kansas a whopping 28.0 point margin, with a 93.0 percent probability
of winning the game, and a final score of either Kansas 86, Oklahoma 58 (schedule
page), or Kansas 88, Oklahoma 60 (scouting report page).

We're #1!
We're #1!
We're #1!

The road win over Baylor propelled Kansas into the #1 spot in the RPI, according
to Collegiate Basketball News, with Villanova still at #2, North Carolina at #3,
Louisville at #4, Oregon at #5, and Baylor down to #8.  West Virginia is back to
being third in the Big 12 at #25, while Oklahoma State is #27.  Iowa State is #36,
TCU is #60, and Kansas State sagged to #68.  Texas Tech remained at #100.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 13.1 point margin, with an 86.6 percent probability of
winning, and a final score of Kansas 83, Oklahoma 70.  Note that Kansas is Dolphin's
#1 team across the board, except for Predictive.

Don Davis' February 18 email gives Kansas a 15.5 point margin, with a 96.4 percent
probability of winning, and a final score of Kansas 84, Oklahoma 68.

Colley gives Kansas a 24.6 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.0 point home court advantage.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 14.8 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously and Sagarin's 3.0 point home court advantage.

The new and improved BPI gives Kansas a 19.1 point margin, with a 94.1 percent
probability of winning.

Kansas slipped a spot in the LRMC.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 17.0 point margin, a 95 percent probability of
winning, and projects a final score of Kansas 84, Oklahoma 67.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 15.9 point margin.

There are eight common opponents, all in conference, plus the head-to-head in
Norman.  Using only the home-home and road-road permutations for games in which
both teams have completed their home-and-away series with the same opponent, we
have seventeen scores to compare:

KU   +5 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)     KU   +2 BU  on road ( +6 neutral court)
OU  -26 BU  at home (-30 neutral court)     OU   -6 BU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU  +35 OU  at home (+31 neutral court)     KU  +12 OU  at home ( +8 neutral court)

KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)     KU  +19 TCU at home (+15 neutral court)
OU   -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)     OU   -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +13 OU  at home ( +9 neutral court)     KU  +18 OU  at home (+14 neutral court)

KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
OU  -11 KSU on road ( -7 neutral court)     OU  +28 KSU at home (+24 neutral court)
KU  +18 OU  at home (+14 neutral court)     KU  -22 OU  at home (-26 neutral court)

KU  +17 TTU at home (+13 neutral court)     KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
OU   +9 TTU at home ( +5 neutral court)     OU   -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU  +12 OU  at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU  +13 OU  at home ( +9 neutral court)

KU  -16 WVU on road (-12 neutral court)     KU   +4 WVU at home (  0 neutral court)
OU   +2 WVU on road ( +6 neutral court)     OU  -11 WVU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU  -14 OU  at home (-18 neutral court)     KU  +11 OU  at home ( +7 neutral court)

KU   -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court)     KU   +4 ISU on road ( +8 neutral court)
OU   -5 ISU at home ( -9 neutral court)     OU  -16 ISU on road (-12 neutral court)
KU   +6 OU  at home ( +2 neutral court)     KU  +24 OU  at home (+20 neutral court)

KU  +10 UT  on road (+14 neutral court)     KU  +12 UT  at home ( +8 neutral court)
OU   -1 UT  on road ( +3 neutral court)     OU   +4 UT  at home (  0 neutral court)
KU  +15 OU  at home (+11 neutral court)     KU  +12 OU  at home ( +8 neutral court)

KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
OU   -2 OSU at home ( -6 neutral court)     OU   -4 OSU on road (  0 neutral court)
KU  +13 OU  at home ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)

KU  +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral court)
KU  +19 OU  at home (+15 neutral court)

Fifteen of the seventeen comparisons favor Kansas, while two favor Oklahoma (the
West Virginia road game and the Kansas State home game).  The average is 11.3 points
in favor of Kansas, somewhat less than what the Sagarin margin is.

Players to watch:  Guard Jordan Woodward played the most minutes, scored the most
points, dished the most assists, and was their leading thief, but he also committed
the most turnovers, and also tore his ACL, so he's out; guard Rashard Odomes plays
the second-most minutes, scores the second-most points, and dishes the second-most
assists; forward Kristian Doolittle grabs the most rebounds; forward Khadeem Lattin
blocks the most shots and is their second-leading thief, but also commits the most
personal fouls.  From the stats, it looks like Woodward was an indispensible part
of their team.  Recall that he was activated for the first Kansas game, perhaps
unexpectedly, but Kansas managed to win by 3.5 points more than expected anyway.
And Woodard's absence certainly didn't hurt against Kansas State this past Saturday.
Hard to say how his absence will affect today's game.

So, the various prognostications range from a 28 point win (Real Time) to an 11 point
win (common opponents).  The average is 16.1 points in favor of Kansas, suggesting a
final score of Kansas 84, Oklahoma 68.

Rock Chalk!

And a closing quotation:
     
   "Things that are inevitable:  death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  7   #  7   #  7   #  3   #  3   +0.4    6.7   +0.03 +/- 0.15   -0.14 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma       # 58   #  1   # 56   # 64   # 68   -0.6   11.1   +0.26 +/- 0.26   -0.03 +/- 0.20
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  2  #  1   #  8   #  5   #  6  #  2    #  6    #  3   # 27   #  1   # 18
Oklahoma       # 86  #  7   # 64   #  1   # 59  # 15    # 93    #195   # 29   #171   # 37
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1   #  1   #  8   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   1.214   26-3     #     #   
Oklahoma       # 97   # 94   # 55   #166   #167   #158   # 90   1.008   10-18    #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1  # 18    #  7  #  6    #  9  #  6    #  7  #  1    # 11  #  4    #  8  # 12
Oklahoma       #138  # 24    # 77  #  5    # 72  #  1    # 62  # 12    #106  #  2    #102  #  6

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 27-4:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 30 Indiana                     99 103    +7.02   -11.02
NEUT   # 10 Duke                        77  75    +0.71    +1.29
HOME   #180 Siena                       86  65   +24.71    -3.71
HOME   #156 UAB                         83  63   +23.03    -3.03
HOME   # 51 Georgia                     65  54   +12.68    -1.68
HOME   #114 NC Asheville                95  57   +20.57   +17.43
HOME   #213 Long Beach State            91  61   +27.07    +2.93
HOME   # 81 Stanford                    89  74   +17.01    -2.01
HOME   #236 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +28.32   +14.68
HOME   # 86 Nebraska                    89  72   +17.29    -0.29
HOME   # 85 Davidson                    89  71   +17.28    +0.72
AWAY   #228 UNLV                        71  53   +21.91    -3.91
AWAY   # 40 TCU                         86  80    +5.62    +0.38
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                90  88   +11.66    -9.66
HOME   # 35 Texas Tech                  85  68   +10.94    +6.06
AWAY   # 56 Oklahoma                    81  70    +7.51    +3.49
HOME   # 19 Oklahoma State              87  80    +6.89    +0.11
AWAY   # 18 Iowa State                  76  72    +0.31    +3.69
HOME   # 61 Texas                       79  67   +14.15    -2.15
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               69  85    -4.98   -11.02
AWAY   #  4 Kentucky                    79  73    -4.15   +10.15
HOME   # 15 Baylor                      73  68    +5.52    -0.52
HOME   # 18 Iowa State                  89  92    +6.31    -9.31
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                74  71    +5.66    -2.66
AWAY   # 35 Texas Tech                  80  79    +4.94    -3.94
HOME   #  2 West Virginia               84  80    +1.02    +2.98
AWAY   # 15 Baylor                      67  65    -0.48    +2.48
HOME   # 40 TCU                         87  68   +11.62    +7.38
AWAY   # 61 Texas                       77  67    +8.15    +1.85
HOME   # 56 Oklahoma                             +13.51             0.930
AWAY   # 19 Oklahoma State                        +0.89             0.535

Here is Oklahoma's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #308 Northwestern State          97  61   +23.57   +12.43
NEUT   #237 Tulane                      89  70   +14.91    +4.09
NEUT   #140 Northern Iowa               67  73    +8.79   -14.79
NEUT   # 38 Clemson                     70  64    -2.06    +8.06
HOME   #297 Abilene Christian           72  64   +22.24   -14.24
HOME   #286 Northern Colorado           87  66   +21.12    -0.12
AWAY   # 17 Wisconsin                   70  90   -10.55    -9.45
HOME   #229 Oral Roberts                92  66   +17.41    +8.59
HOME   # 11 Wichita State               73  76    -6.31    +3.31
HOME   # 79 Memphis                     94  99    +6.03   -11.03
NEUT   # 80 Auburn                      70  74    +3.25    -7.25
HOME   # 15 Baylor                      50  76    -4.99   -21.01
AWAY   # 40 TCU                         57  60    -4.89    +1.89
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                64  75    -4.85    -6.15
HOME   #  7 Kansas                      70  81    -7.51    -3.49
HOME   # 35 Texas Tech                  84  75    +0.43    +8.57
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               89  87   -15.49   +17.49
HOME   # 18 Iowa State                  87  92    -4.20    -0.80
AWAY   # 61 Texas                       83  84    -2.36    +1.36
HOME   #  8 Florida                     52  84    -7.49   -24.51
HOME   # 19 Oklahoma State              66  68    -3.62    +1.62
AWAY   # 35 Texas Tech                  69  77    -5.57    -2.43
HOME   #  2 West Virginia               50  61    -9.49    -1.51
AWAY   # 18 Iowa State                  64  80   -10.20    -5.80
HOME   # 61 Texas                       70  66    +3.64    +0.36
AWAY   # 19 Oklahoma State              92  96    -9.62    +5.62
AWAY   # 15 Baylor                      54  60   -10.99    +4.99
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                81  53    +1.15   +26.85
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                               -13.51             0.070
HOME   # 40 TCU                                   +1.11             0.546