predictions for Texas game

Your mother probably taught you to share.  Then again, your mother wasn't
referring to the Big 12 Conference Championship.  Let's hook those horns.

Sagarin gives Kansas an 8.2 point margin, with an 82.7 percent probability of
winning the game.  The two teams average 146.3 points, so the suggested final
score is Kansas 77, Texas 69.  Kansas has played an average of 0.4 points above
expectation, while Texas has played an average of 0.8 points below expectation,
which increases the margin for Kansas to 9.3 points.  Kansas has been more
consistent than Texas by 3.5 points.  The Jayhawks have played 4 games out of
28 more than 8.2 points below expectation, which would be enough to lose today's
game.  That corresponds to a 14.3 percent chance of losing.  Meanwhile, Texas
has played just 3 games out of 28 more than 8.2 points above expectation, which
would be enough to win today's game.  That correspond to a 10.7 percent chance
of Texas winning.  The two average to a 12.5 percent chance of Kansas losing the
game, somewhat more optimistic than the odds derived from the Sagarin Predictor
ratings.  It's worth noting that Texas' best conference game came against West
Virginia, when they played 8.3 points above expectation.  A repeat performance
would result in overtime with Kansas.   You have to go back to the non-conference
portion of the schedule to find a better performance by Texas.  Both teams have
positive trends, though neither is statistically significant.  Kansas still has
a negative mental toughness rating, while Texas' rating is positive.  Taken at
face value, the margin for Kansas would be 8.4 points.  Meanwhile, the new
Sagarin "offense-defense" method favors Kansas by 9.6 points, with a final score
of Kansas 77, Texas 67.

Massey gives Kansas a 10.0 point margin, with an 83 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 77, Texas 67.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 17.5 units, but Texas has
the better adjusted defense by 0.4 units.  Those combine to a 17.1 units advantage
for Kansas.  With the average adjusted tempo being 69.2 possessions, the margin
would be 11.8 points, dropping to 8.8 points after including Sagarin's 3.0 point
home court advantage.  The final score would then be Kansas 77, Texas 68.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 7.5 point margin, with a Vegas implied final score
of Kansas 76, Texas 68.5 (you pick the rounding).  Among the key offensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in all eight categories.  Among the key defensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in five of the seven categories; Texas holds opponents
to 2.8 fewer points per game and commits 0.7 fewer personal fouls per game.

So far, Dunkel has psoted predictions for 15 Saturday games, none of them in the
Big 12.  I'm not going to wait for them.

Real Time gives Kansas an 11.0 point margin, with a 71.5 percent probability
of winning the game, and a final score of Kansas 83, Texas 72.

We're #1!
We're #1!
We're #1!

The road win over Baylor propelled Kansas into the #1 spot in the RPI, according
to Collegiate Basketball News, with Villanova still at #2, North Carolina at #3,
Oregon at #4, and Baylor down to #5.  Oklahoma State is still third in the Big 12
at #28, while West Virginia is at #31.  Iowa State is #41, TCU is #56, Kansas State
is #61.  Texas Tech remained at #100.

Dolphin gives Kansas an 8.2 point margin, with a 76.2 percent probability of
winning, and a final score of Kansas 76, Texas 68.

Don Davis' February 18 email gives Kansas an 8.9 point margin, with a 83.9 percent
probability of winning, and a final score of Kansas 78, Texas 69.

Colley gives Kansas an 18.2 point underdog using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.0 point home court advantage.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 9.8 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously and Sagarin's 3.0 point home court advantage.

The new and improved BPI gives Kansas a 9.8 point margin, with an 81.4 percent
probability of winning.

Kansas improved two spots in the LRMC.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 12.0 point margin, a 94 percent probability of
winning, and projects a final score of Kansas 79, Texas 67.

Crotistics gives Kansas an 8.7 point margin.

There are ten common opponents, eight in conference plus Long Beach State and UAB.
If we use only the home-home and road-road permutations for cases in which both
teams have finished their series with the same opponent, we have nineteen scores
to compare:

KU  +30 LBS at home (+26 neutral court)
UT   +6 LBS at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU  +20 UT  on road (+24 neutral court)

KU  +20 UAB at home (+16 neutral court)
UT  +36 UAB at home (+32 neutral court)
KU  -20 UT  on road (-16 neutral court)

KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
UT   -3 KSU on road ( +1 neutral court)     UT   -3 KSU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU   +2 UT  on road ( +6 neutral court)     KU   +1 UT  on road ( +5 neutral court)

KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
UT   +3 OSU at home ( -1 neutral court)     UT  -13 OSU on road ( -9 neutral court)
KU    0 UT  on road ( +4 neutral court)     KU   +8 UT  on road (+12 neutral court)

KU   +4 ISU on road ( +8 neutral court)     KU   -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court)
UT   -9 ISU on road ( -5 neutral court)     UT   +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU   +9 UT  on road (+13 neutral court)     KU   -9 UT  on road ( -5 neutral court)

KU  +19 TCU at home (+15 neutral court)     KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)
UT   -3 TCU at home ( -7 neutral court)     UT  -15 TCU on road (-11 neutral court)
KU  +18 UT  on road (+22 neutral court)     KU  +17 UT  on road (+21 neutral court)

KU   +4 WVU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -16 WVU on road (-12 neutral court)
UT   -2 WVU at home ( -6 neutral court)     UT  -15 WVU on road (-11 neutral court)
KU   +2 UT  on road ( +6 neutral court)     KU   -5 UT  on road ( -1 neutral court)

KU   +2 BU  on road ( +6 neutral court)     KU   +5 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)
UT  -10 BU  on road ( -6 neutral court)     UT  -10 BU  on road ( -6 neutral court)
KU   +8 UT  on road (+12 neutral court)     KU   +3 UT  on road ( +7 neutral court)

KU  +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral court)     KU  +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral court)
UT   +1 OU  at home ( -3 neutral court)     UT   -4 OU  on road (  0 neutral court)
KU  +14 UT  on orad (+18 neutral court)     KU  +11 UT  on road (+15 neutral court)

KU  +17 TTU at home (+13 neutral court)     KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
UT   +4 TTU at home (  0 neutral court)     UT   +4 TTU at home (  0 neutral court)
KU   +9 UT  on road (+13 neutral court)     KU   +1 UT  on road ( +5 neutral court)

KU  +12 UT  at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU   +4 UT  on road ( +8 neutral court)

Fifteen of the nineteen comparisons favor Kansas, three favor Texas, with one being
a wash.  Interestingly, the two non-conference games cancel each other out.  The
average is 4.9 points in favor of Kansas, considerably less than what the Sagarin
margin is.

Players to watch:  Forward Jarrett Allen plays the most minutes, grabs the most
rebounds, and blocks the most shots, but also commits the most turnovers; guard
Tevin Mack scores the most points; guard Kerwin Roach Jr. dishes the most assists
and is their leading thief, but he also commits the most personal fouls.  However,
Mack was suspended indefinitely last month for a violation of team rules; I suppose
he could reappear at any time.  Their second-leading scorer is Allen.

So, the various prognostications range from an 18 point win (Colley) to a 4.9 point
win (common opponents).  The average is 9.3 points in favor of Kansas, suggesting a
final score of Kansas 78, Texas 69.

Rock Chalk!

And a closing quotation:
     
   "Things that are inevitable:  death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   #  7   #  8   #  3   #  3   +0.4    6.7   +0.02 +/- 0.16   -0.16 +/- 0.14
Texas          # 64   #  3   # 60   # 70   # 79   -0.8   10.2   +0.21 +/- 0.24   +0.17 +/- 0.19
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  2  #  1   #  8   #  4   #  6  #  2    #  9    #  3   # 19   #  1   #  9
Texas          #104  # 15   # 72   #  5   # 60  # 21    # 86    #181   # 18   #166   # 28
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  2   #  2   #  8   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  2   1.226   25-3     #     #   
Texas          #108   #107   # 62   #161   #166   #159   #102   0.916   10-18    #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1  # 10    #  6  #  1    #  9  #  5    #  6  #  1    #  7  #  4    #  9  #  6
Texas          #130  # 20    # 83  #  7    # 75  #  6    # 67  #  7    #131  # 14    #108  # 15

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 27-4:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 30 Indiana                     99 103    +6.98   -10.98
NEUT   #  9 Duke                        77  75    +0.48    +1.52
HOME   #182 Siena                       86  65   +24.82    -3.82
HOME   #156 UAB                         83  63   +23.18    -3.18
HOME   # 48 Georgia                     65  54   +12.37    -1.37
HOME   #118 NC Asheville                95  57   +20.88   +17.12
HOME   #213 Long Beach State            91  61   +27.12    +2.88
HOME   # 84 Stanford                    89  74   +17.31    -2.31
HOME   #238 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +28.34   +14.66
HOME   # 81 Nebraska                    89  72   +16.78    +0.22
HOME   # 85 Davidson                    89  71   +17.32    +0.68
AWAY   #214 UNLV                        71  53   +21.10    -3.10
AWAY   # 44 TCU                         86  80    +5.83    +0.17
HOME   # 33 Kansas State                90  88   +10.73    -8.73
HOME   # 34 Texas Tech                  85  68   +10.75    +6.25
AWAY   # 63 Oklahoma                    81  70    +8.46    +2.54
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma State              87  80    +7.20    -0.20
AWAY   # 18 Iowa State                  76  72    +0.41    +3.59
HOME   # 60 Texas                       79  67   +14.18    -2.18
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               69  85    -5.13   -10.87
AWAY   #  4 Kentucky                    79  73    -3.94    +9.94
HOME   # 15 Baylor                      73  68    +5.50    -0.50
HOME   # 18 Iowa State                  89  92    +6.43    -9.43
AWAY   # 33 Kansas State                74  71    +4.71    -1.71
AWAY   # 34 Texas Tech                  80  79    +4.73    -3.73
HOME   #  2 West Virginia               84  80    +0.89    +3.11
AWAY   # 15 Baylor                      67  65    -0.52    +2.52
HOME   # 44 TCU                         87  68   +11.85    +7.15
AWAY   # 60 Texas                                 +8.16             0.827
HOME   # 63 Oklahoma                             +14.48             0.958
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma State                        +1.18             0.545

Here is Texas' season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #314 Incarnate Word              78  73   +23.31   -18.31
HOME   #265 Louisiana-Monroe            80  59   +19.17    +1.83
HOME   #188 Eastern Washington          85  52   +13.86   +19.14
NEUT   # 42 Northwestern                58  77    -2.52   -16.48
NEUT   # 67 Colorado                    54  68    +1.14   -15.14
HOME   # 82 Texas-Arlington             61  72    +5.91   -16.91
HOME   # 64 Alabama                     77  68    +3.43    +5.57
AWAY   # 27 Michigan                    50  53    -7.97    +4.97
HOME   #213 Long Beach State            71  65   +15.95    -9.95
NEUT   # 47 Arkansas                    74  77    -1.90    -1.10
HOME   #156 UAB                         96  60   +12.01   +23.99
HOME   #149 Kent State                  58  63   +11.59   -16.59
AWAY   # 33 Kansas State                62  65    -6.46    +3.46
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma State              82  79    -3.97    +6.97
AWAY   # 18 Iowa State                  70  79   -10.76    +1.76
HOME   # 44 TCU                         61  64    +0.68    -3.68
HOME   #  2 West Virginia               72  74   -10.28    +8.28
AWAY   # 15 Baylor                      64  74   -11.69    +1.69
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                      67  79   -14.18    +2.18
HOME   # 63 Oklahoma                    84  83    +3.31    -2.31
AWAY   # 48 Georgia                     57  59    -4.82    +2.82
HOME   # 34 Texas Tech                  62  58    -0.42    +4.42
AWAY   # 44 TCU                         63  78    -5.34    -9.66
HOME   # 18 Iowa State                  67  65    -4.74    +6.74
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma State              71  84    -9.99    -3.01
AWAY   # 63 Oklahoma                    66  70    -2.71    -1.29
HOME   # 33 Kansas State                61  64    -0.44    -2.56
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               62  77   -16.30    +1.30
HOME   #  8 Kansas                                -8.16             0.173
AWAY   # 34 Texas Tech                            -6.44             0.238
HOME   # 15 Baylor                                -5.67             0.270