Big 12 projection, Round 14

   "Things that are inevitable:
   death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

West Virginia needed double overtime to fend off Texas Tech, and that
enabled the Mountaineers to reclaim second place when Baylor lost at
home to Kansas.  No other changes.
                
In Round 15, all the upper division teams are playing lower division
teams, and four of them are favored to win, though the sign flipped
on the Oklahoma State at Kansas State game with the updated Sagarin
Predictor ratings, and Iowa State at Texas Tech is projected as a
one-possession road win.  Kansas can win a share of the conference
championship at home against TCU, which has a high probability of
happening.

                      Init.  Rnd 9  Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13  Rd 14
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game  Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------  -----------
#  9  Kansas          13.34  14.53  13.65  13.93  14.15  14.68  15.27   12  2   TCU (We)  KU  by 11.6
#  2  West Virginia   14.20  12.90  12.00  12.21  12.39  11.90  12.01    9  5   UT  (Mo)  WVU by 16.4
# 16  Baylor          11.51  13.00  12.04  12.60  12.81  12.10  11.52    9  5   OU  (Tu)  BU  by 12.4
# 18  Iowa State       9.97   9.87  10.72  10.03  10.22  10.74  10.99    9  5  @TTU (Mo)  ISU by  1.2 RW
# 23  Oklahoma State   8.55   7.72   8.67   8.14   8.43   8.90   9.03    7  7  @KSU (We)
# 32  Kansas State     6.26   7.57   8.61   8.35   8.19   7.64   8.14    6  8   OSU (We)  KSU by  0.2
# 42  TCU              7.42   7.69   8.01   8.34   8.11   7.63   7.38    6  8  @KU  (We)
# 34  Texas Tech       8.00   6.50   6.79   6.46   6.22   6.91   6.82    5  9   ISU (Mo)
# 60  Texas            5.04   5.69   5.27   5.94   5.68   5.26   4.76    4 10  @WVU (Mo)
# 64  Oklahoma         5.71   4.53   4.24   4.00   3.80   4.24   4.08    3 11  @BU  (Tu)

Massey and Seven Overtimes shared honors for best prognostications in
Round 14.  Sagarin retains the season lead among those that have been
around the entire season.  ESPN's BPI still looks good among the
latecomers.

Predictions                                                                                                     
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  Real  
KSU ov UT   0.6   4.0   2.7   2.0   8.5   2.0   4.8   1.5   2.4   1.0   3.0   1.8   1.8   1.3  -3.5   1.0  
BU  ov KU   1.1   2.0   3.1   1.5  -8.0   2.0   3.4   1.6   1.9   2.8   1.0   4.1   1.3   1.8   1.4   8.0  
ISU ov TCU  8.0   8.0   6.5   7.5  10.5   7.5   1.0   6.9   5.9   9.8   7.0   6.7   7.8   8.3   8.1  11.0  
OSU ov OU  10.6  11.0  12.3  12.0  16.5  11.0  15.0  12.3  11.0  12.6  10.0  13.1  12.6  13.1  13.9  24.0  
WVU ov TTU 13.2  11.0  11.7  11.0   8.5  12.0  10.5  12.3  11.1  16.2  13.0  13.3  14.5  15.0  10.5  19.0  

  Reality  Er1or    +    1     1     1                             3     3+          1           2
  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  Real
      3     2.4   1.0   0.3   1.0   5.5   1.0   1.8   1.5   0.6   2.0   0.0   1.2   1.2   1.7   6.5   2.0
     -2     3.1   4.0   5.1   3.5   6.0   4.0   5.4   3.6   3.9   4.8   3.0   6.1   3.3   3.8   3.4  10.0
     13     5.0   5.0   6.5   5.5   2.5   5.5  12.0   6.1   7.1   3.2   6.0   6.3   5.2   4.7   4.9   2.0
      4     6.6   7.0   8.3   8.0  12.5   7.0  11.0   8.3   7.0   8.6   6.0   9.1   8.6   9.1   9.9  20.0
      9     4.2   2.0   2.7   2.0   0.5   3.0   1.5   3.3   2.1   7.2   4.0   4.3   5.5   6.0   1.5  10.0

total      21.3  19.0  22.9  20.0  27.0  20.5  31.7  22.8  20.7  25.8  19.0  27.0  23.8  25.3  26.2  44.0
previous  422.5 445.0 435.6 441.0 540.0 432.5 548.1 441.0 448.8 220.0 481.0 449.9 452.4 454.9 473.4 186.0
cumulat   443.8 464.0 458.5 461.0 567.0 453.0 579.8 463.8 469.5 245.8 500.0 476.9 476.2 480.2 499.6 230.0
per game    6.3   6.6   6.6   6.6   8.1   6.5   8.3   6.6   6.7   6.1   7.1   6.8   6.8   6.9   7.1   7.7

Only one road win had been projected for Round 14, but two happened,
much to the benefit of the Jayhawks.  Only one road win is projected
for Round 15, but it is projected as a one-possession affair, so it
may not happen, while another one-possession game could produce a
different road win.

Road wins (28 out of 70)                    Home losses                             Differential (RW-HL)
-----------------------------------------   -------------------------------------   --------------------
6 Kansas          TCU OU  ISU KSU TTU BU    1 Kansas          ISU                   +5 Kansas        
4 Baylor          OU  KSU TCU OSU           2 Baylor          KSU KU                +2 Baylor        
4 Iowa State      OSU OU  KU  KSU           2 Iowa State      KU  WVU               +2 Iowa State    
4 Oklahoma State  TTU OU  WVU TCU           2 Texas Tech      OSU KU                +2 West Virginia 
4 West Virginia   OSU UT  ISU OU            2 West Virginia   OU  OSU                0 Oklahoma State
3 Kansas State    OSU BU  UT                3 TCU             KU  BU  OSU           -1 Kansas State  
2 TCU             UT  KSU                   3 Texas           TCU WVU KSU           -1 TCU           
1 Oklahoma        WVU                       4 Kansas State    BU  TCU KU  ISU       -2 Texas Tech    
0 Texas                                     4 Oklahoma State  WVU ISU KSU BU        -3 Texas         
0 Texas Tech                                5 Oklahoma        BU  KU  ISU OSU WVU   -4 Oklahoma      

The only trend that shows any statistical significance is for West Virginia.
I wonder if the press has been wearing them down over the course of the
season?  Recall how the performance value for West Virginia was up around
3 points at the start of conference play.  It has been steadily eroding.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
West Virginia   +1.49    Kansas            6.67    
Oklahoma State  +1.17    Kansas State      7.62    
TCU             +0.85    Texas Tech        7.78    
Iowa State      +0.74    TCU               8.01    
Baylor          +0.49    Baylor            8.21    
Kansas State    +0.44    Oklahoma          9.87    
Kansas          +0.34    Texas            10.39    
Texas Tech      +0.28    Iowa State       11.66    
Oklahoma        -0.72    West Virginia    12.61    
Texas           -0.79    Oklahoma State   13.08    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas           +0.21 +/- 0.26    Texas           +0.17 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma State  +0.13 +/- 0.35    Kansas State    +0.15 +/- 0.12
Oklahoma        -0.02 +/- 0.26    Baylor          +0.13 +/- 0.15
Texas Tech      -0.03 +/- 0.20    Oklahoma State  +0.04 +/- 0.22
Kansas          -0.04 +/- 0.17    Oklahoma        -0.05 +/- 0.18
Kansas State    -0.04 +/- 0.19    Texas Tech      -0.07 +/- 0.11
Baylor          -0.19 +/- 0.22    West Virginia   -0.10 +/- 0.19
Iowa State      -0.22 +/- 0.31    Kansas          -0.16 +/- 0.14
TCU             -0.25 +/- 0.21    Iowa State      -0.17 +/- 0.19
West Virginia   -0.49 +/- 0.30    TCU             -0.26 +/- 0.14

The strength of schedule for Kansas increased by over a half unit, but
the ranking remained stuck at #4, and I don't see that improving over
the remainder of the regular season.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma State  85.35   Baylor          63.31   Oklahoma State  163.00   West Virginia   +17.52   
West Virginia   84.96   Kansas State    67.44   Kansas          155.04   Kansas           +9.70   
Kansas          82.37   West Virginia   67.44   West Virginia   152.41   Iowa State       +9.54   
Iowa State      80.42   Texas Tech      67.52   Iowa State      151.31   Baylor           +8.50   
Texas Tech      74.74   Texas           69.41   Oklahoma        149.73   Oklahoma State   +7.69   
Oklahoma        73.69   TCU             69.81   TCU             143.50   Texas Tech       +7.22   
TCU             73.69   Iowa State      70.88   Texas Tech      142.26   Kansas State     +5.96   
Kansas State    73.41   Kansas          72.67   Kansas State    140.85   TCU              +3.88   
Baylor          71.81   Oklahoma        76.04   Texas           137.52   Texas            -1.30   
Texas           68.11   Oklahoma State  77.65   Baylor          135.12   Oklahoma         -2.35   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma        82.50 ( 1)
Oklahoma State  81.91 ( 2)
Baylor          81.88 ( 3)
Kansas          81.79 ( 4)
Texas           81.19 ( 8)
Iowa State      80.85 ( 9)
TCU             79.64 (21)
Kansas State    79.04 (29)
West Virginia   78.14 (43)
Texas Tech      77.09 (59)