predictions for Baylor game

Baylor's back is against the wall.  They realize that they must win today to
have any realistic chance at winning the conference championship.  Like a
wounded animal, that will make them extra dangerous.

Sagarin makes Kansas a 1.11 point underdog, with a 44.2 percent probability of
winning the game.  The two teams average 145.6 points, so the suggested final
score is Kansas 72, Baylor 73.  Kansas has played an average of 0.32 points
above expectation, while Baylor has played an average of 0.55 points above
expectation, which increases the margin for Baylor to 1.34 points.  Baylor has
been more consistent than the national average, though not as consistent as
Kansas.  The Jayhawks have played 9 out of 26 games above expectation by more
than 1.11 points, corresponding to a 34.6 percent chance of winning the game.
Meanwhile, Baylor has played 12 out of 25 Division I games below expectation
by more than 1.11 points, corresponding to a 48.0 percent chance of losing the
game.  Those average to a 41.3 percent chance of Kansas winning, slightly less
optmistic than what was derived from the Sagarin Predictor ratings.  Both teams
have negative trends, though neither is statistically significant.  Kansas has
a negative mental toughness rating of marginal statistical significance, while
Baylor's is positive, though not statistically significant.  Taken at face
value, the margin for Baylor would be 1.36 points.  Meanwhile, the new Sagarin
"offense-defense" method favors Baylor by 1.74 points, with a final score of
Kansas 71, Baylor 73.

Massey makes Kansas a 2.0 point underdog, with a 43 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 71, Baylor 73.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 4.7 units, but Baylor
has the better adjusted defense by 4.8 units.  With the average adjusted
tempo being 67.4 possessions, Baylor's neutral court margin would be only
0.07 points.  But after accounting for Sagarin's 3.05 point home court
advantage, the Bear become a 3.12 point favorite.  The final score would then
be Kansas 70, Baylor 73.

Greenfield makes Kansas a 1.5 point underdog, with a Vegas implied final score
of Kansas 71.5 (you pick the rounding), Baylor 73.  Among the key offensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven of the eight categories; Baylor has
a higher offensive rebound percentage.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas
has the advantage in just three of the seven categories, namely grabbing more
offensive rebounds, grabbing more defensive rebounds, and stealing more balls.

Dunkel gives Kansas an 8.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at
2 points in favor of Baylor, so he is obviously picking Kansas both in the game
and against the spread.  Dunkel's total points is 149, suggesting a final score
of Kansas 78.5, Baylor 70.5 (you pick the roundings), while the Vegas total is
142.0, suggesting a final score of Kansas 70, Baylor 72.

Real Time makes Kansas an 8.0 point underdog, with a 33.6 percent probability
of winning the game, and a final score of Kansas 78, Baylor 86.

Collegiate Basketball News still has Baylor at #1 in the RPI, with Villanova
still at #2.  Kansas remained in the #3 slot.  Oklahoma State is still third
in the Big 12 at #28, while West Virginia is #30.  Iowa State is #46, while
TCU dropped all the way to #49, and Kansas State dropped to #56.  Texas Tech
is #86, but that alone doesn't look like enough for the Red Raiders to be
dancing next month.

Dolphin makes Kansas a 1.62 point underdog with a 44.4 percent probability of
winning, and a final score of Kansas 70, Baylor 72.

Don Davis' January 26 email makes Kansas a 2.3 point underdog, with a 36.3 percent
probability of winning and a final score of Kansas 71, Baylor 74.  But that email
was produced right after the loss to West Virginia in Morgantown, and before the
win over Kentucky in Lexington, so the prediction is out of date.  Don, I need
an update!

Colley makes Kansas a 3.4 point underdog using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.05 point home court advantage.

Whitlock makes Kansas a 1.9 point underdog using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously and Sagarin's 3.05 point home court advantage.

The new and improved BPI makes Kansas a 2.8 point underdog, with a 39.1 percent
probability of winning.

The LRMC has Gonzaga ranked as #1, West Virginia as #2, Kansas as #9, and
Baylor as #13.

Seven Overtimes hasn't yet posted its predictions for Saturday's games.  I'm
not going to wait for them.

Crotistics makes Kansas a 4.1 point underdog.

There are eight common opponents, all in conference, four of which Kansas has
played twice (Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, West Virginia), and four of
which Baylor has played twice (Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech),
plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us fifteen scores to compare
(because I'll use only the home-home and road-road permutations for the
Kansas State and Texas Tech games, whom both have played twice):

KU  +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral court)
BU  +26 OU  on road (+30 neutral court)
KU  -19 BU  on road (-15 neutral court)

KU   -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court)     KU   +4 ISU on road ( +8 neutral court)
BU   +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)     BU   +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU   -9 BU  on road ( -5 neutral court)     KU   +6 BU  on road (+10 neutral court)

KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
BU   +4 OSU at home (  0 neutral court)     BU   +3 OSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU   -1 BU  on road ( +3 neutral court)     KU   -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral court)

KU  -16 WVU on road (-12 neutral court)     KU   +4 WVU at home (  0 neutral court)
BU  -21 WVU on road (-17 neutral court)     BU  -21 WVU on road (-17 neutral court)
KU   +1 BU  on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU  +13 BU  on road (+17 neutral court)

KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
BU   +9 KSU on road (+13 neutral court)     BU   -2 KSU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU  -10 BU  on rado ( -6 neutral court)     KU    0 BU  on road ( +4 neutral court)

KU  +12 UT  at home ( +8 neutral court)
BU  +10 UT  at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU   -2 BU  on road ( +2 neutral court)

KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)     KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)
BU   +9 TCU on road (+13 neutral court)     BU  +18 TCU at home (+14 neutral court)
KU   -7 BU  on road ( -3 neutral court)     KU   -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral court)

KU  +17 TTU at home (+13 neutral court)     KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
BU   +4 TTU at home (  0 neutral court)     BU   -6 TTU on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU   +9 BU  on road (+13 neutral court)     KU   +3 BU  on road ( +7 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU   -3 BU  on road ( -3 neutral court)

Only five of the fifteen comparisons favor Kansas, with one being a wash,
giving Baylor the advantage in nine of them, but the average is only
2.3 points in favor of Baylor.

Players to watch:  Guard Manu Lecomte plays the most minutes and dishes the
most assists; forward Johnathan Motley scores the most points and grabs the
most rebounds, but also commits the most turnovers and the most personal
fouls; forward Jo Acuil blocks the most shots; guard Ish Wainright is their
leading thief; guard Al Freeman has been suspended for violation of team
rules, and he's basically their sixth man.

So, the various prognostications range from an 8 point win (Dunkel) to an
8 point loss (Real Time).  The average is 1.79 points in favor of Baylor,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 72, Baylor 74.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  7   #  4   # 10   #  4   #  3   +0.3    6.8   -0.07 +/- 0.18   -0.17 +/- 0.14
Baylor         # 12   #  3   # 14   # 11   # 10   +0.6    8.3   -0.18 +/- 0.23   +0.14 +/- 0.16
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  3  #  1   #  9   #  4   #  8  #  2    #  9    #  3   # 21   #  3   # 15
Baylor         #  5  #  7   #  8   #  6   # 15  #  6    # 13    #  4   #  6   #  1   #  2
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  3   #  3   # 10   #  2   #  3   #  2   #  3   1.199   23-3     #     #   
Baylor         #  4   #  4   # 14   #  4   #  1   #  4   #  4   1.160   22-4     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  3  # 20    #  7  #  1    # 11  #  6    #  9  #  1    #  5  #  1    # 11  # 14
Baylor         #  2  #  7    # 11  # 20    # 14  # 10    # 13  #  5    # 17  # 15    # 12  #  8

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 27-4:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 30 Indiana                     99 103    +6.49   -10.49
NEUT   #  9 Duke                        77  75    -0.17    +2.17
HOME   #181 Siena                       86  65   +24.67    -3.67
HOME   #151 UAB                         83  63   +22.43    -2.43
HOME   # 49 Georgia                     65  54   +12.56    -1.56
HOME   #116 NC Asheville                95  57   +20.51   +17.49
HOME   #212 Long Beach State            91  61   +26.83    +3.17
HOME   # 85 Stanford                    89  74   +17.14    -2.14
HOME   #241 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +28.36   +14.64
HOME   # 80 Nebraska                    89  72   +16.54    +0.46
HOME   # 83 Davidson                    89  71   +16.93    +1.07
AWAY   #207 UNLV                        71  53   +20.23    -2.23
AWAY   # 42 TCU                         86  80    +5.26    +0.74
HOME   # 32 Kansas State                90  88   +10.34    -8.34
HOME   # 35 Texas Tech                  85  68   +10.70    +6.30
AWAY   # 65 Oklahoma                    81  70    +8.58    +2.42
HOME   # 22 Oklahoma State              87  80    +7.14    -0.14
AWAY   # 18 Iowa State                  76  72    +0.35    +3.65
HOME   # 59 Texas                       79  67   +13.98    -1.98
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               69  85    -5.55   -10.45
AWAY   #  3 Kentucky                    79  73    -4.54   +10.54
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      73  68    +4.99    +0.01
HOME   # 18 Iowa State                  89  92    +6.45    -9.45
AWAY   # 32 Kansas State                74  71    +4.24    -1.24
AWAY   # 35 Texas Tech                  80  79    +4.60    -3.60
HOME   #  2 West Virginia               84  80    +0.55    +3.45
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                                -1.11             0.442
HOME   # 42 TCU                                  +11.36             0.938
AWAY   # 59 Texas                                 +7.88             0.812
HOME   # 65 Oklahoma                             +14.68             0.958
AWAY   # 22 Oklahoma State                        +1.04             0.539

Here is Baylor's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #224 Oral Roberts                76  61   +25.59   -10.59
HOME   # 13 Oregon                      66  49    +2.96   +14.04
HOME   #126 Florida Gulf Coast          81  72   +19.10   -10.10
NEUT   # 46 VCU(Va. Commonwealth)       71  63    +6.90    +1.10
NEUT   # 48 Michigan State              73  58    +6.97    +8.03
NEUT   #  4 Louisville                  66  63    -3.30    +6.30
HOME   #218 Sam Houston State           79  45   +25.25    +8.75
HOME   # 28 Xavier-Ohio                 76  61    +7.24    +7.76
HOME   #307 Southern U.                 89  59   +31.56    -1.56
HOME   #318 Jackson State               82  57   +32.82    -7.82
NAIA        John Brown                 107  53
HOME   #215 Texas Southern              89  63   +25.12    +0.88
AWAY   # 65 Oklahoma                    76  50    +6.64   +19.36
HOME   # 18 Iowa State                  65  63    +4.51    -2.51
HOME   # 22 Oklahoma State              61  57    +5.20    -1.20
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               68  89    -7.49   -13.51
AWAY   # 32 Kansas State                77  68    +2.30    +6.70
HOME   # 59 Texas                       74  64   +12.04    -2.04
AWAY   # 42 TCU                         62  53    +3.32    +5.68
HOME   # 35 Texas Tech                  65  61    +8.76    -4.76
AWAY   # 69 Mississippi                 78  75    +7.16    -4.16
AWAY   # 10 Kansas                      68  73    -4.99    -0.01
HOME   # 32 Kansas State                54  56    +8.40   -10.40
AWAY   # 22 Oklahoma State              72  69    -0.90    +3.90
HOME   # 42 TCU                         70  52    +9.42    +8.58
AWAY   # 35 Texas Tech                  78  84    +2.66    -8.66
HOME   # 10 Kansas                                +1.11             0.558
HOME   # 65 Oklahoma                             +12.74             0.918
AWAY   # 18 Iowa State                            -1.59             0.438
HOME   #  2 West Virginia                         -1.39             0.449
AWAY   # 59 Texas                                 +5.94             0.733