THE BIG WEEK

Well, folks, opportunity is knockin' on the door. With WVU coming to AFH tonight and our trip to Baylor on Saturday, we can essentially seal the deal this week.

First, however, it's interesting to note that OU has now officially been eliminated from winning a championship. Not that anybody was expecting it at this point, but as of Saturday, they officially fell 8 games back with only 6 to go. Next up on the chopping block are Texas Tech and Texas who are both 6 games back with 6 left to play. Again, not expecting them to be contenders, but it's entirely possible that those 3, plus KSU and OSU (5 back) could be gone by the end of the week, leaving half of the conference out of the race.

Of the top 3, if you believe that it'll take 14 wins to cut down the nets, KU needs to go 4-2, Baylor needs to go 5-1, and WVU needs to go 6-0. Based on Asteroid's latest update, the data points to KU getting to 14 and the others finishing with 12. If you look at getting to 13 wins, KU only needs to play .500 ball (3-3) to get there. The moral of the story: time is running out for the other teams in the hunt to mount a charge.

Which leads to this week and all that it entails. One little ironic tidbit is that both WVU and Baylor play Texas Tech in their "other" game this week. This leads to the following scenarios in order of preference:

Today
Scenario 1: KU wins, Baylor loses: we end up with a 2 game cushion on Baylor and 3 games on WVU.
Scenario 2: KU wins, Baylor wins: we'd maintain a 1 game cushion on Baylor and 3 games on WVU.
Scenario 3: KU loses, Baylor loses: KU would have a 1 game cushion on Baylor and WVU who would be tied at 9-4.
Scenario 4: KU loses, Baylor wins: Ok, worst case. KU and Baylor tied at 10-3, WVU one game back.

So that leads to Saturday.....stay tuned for more.

Ok, so there are 4 possible outcomes for today, which lead to 16 possible outcomes by the end of Saturday. Rather than list them all, I'll cherry pick good to bad.

Best case scenario: We win both, Tech wins both: In that case, we're up 3 on Baylor and 4 on WVU...with only 4 left. In that case, it's over.

Middle case scenario #1: We win both, Tech loses both: We're up 2 on Baylor, and 3 on WVU.

Middle case scenario #2: We win at home, lose at Baylor, WVU and Baylor beat Tech: WVU is 2 games back, but that would tie us with Baylor at 11-3.

Nightmare scenario: We lose both, WVU and Baylor win both: in that scenario, we'd be tied in 2nd place with WVU at 10-4, with Baylor in the lead at 11-3.

Of the 16 possible outcomes for each team (64 possible outcomes total) here's what the probability of possible outcomes means for our record at the end of Saturday:

KU:
25% chance of going being 12-2: 1st place
50% chance of being 11-3: 1st place alone, or possibly shared
25% chance of being 10-4: possible shared #1 (could be a 3 way), or shared 2nd place

Baylor:
25% chance of being 11-3: 1st place alone or shared
50% chance of being 10-4: likely 2nd place, outside shot at 1st
25% chance of being 9-5: likely 2nd, outside shot at 3rd

WVU:
25% chance of being 10-4: 1 scenario in 4 of a 3-way tie for 1st. Likely 2nd.
50% chance of being 9-5: 2nd or 3rd.
25% chance of being 8-6: 3rd

Ok, I've spent enough time on this. The odds are clearly in our favor right now. Winning tonight takes the 10-4 scenarios off the table. And essentially bumps WVU from consideration. A little help from Tech would be nice too.

Of course! This is only taking the actual potential outcomes into the equation, and assumes (wrongly) that there's an equal shot at each outcome.

It was more of an effort for me to wrap my head around the potential best case and worst case scenarios, and then take a look at the effect of the possible outcomes.

Nevertheless, if we win the next two games, we're in REALLY good shape.

If we win one, we're in good shape.

If we lose both, it's still possible that we'd be in 1st place.

Regarding the last post, for us midwesterners here is the definition of a "stump jumper":

Insulting term for a hick or redneck. Implies they breed within their family tree, or "jump the stump". Often used by other hicks/rednecks, to mark one as the lowest of the low.

Jethro's a filthy stump jumper.

Well that turned out well, didn't it?

Around 9pm eastern time, I was feeling pretty good watching Baylor go down and awaiting the tip of our game. 1 1/2 hours later I was my mood had shifted a little bit with the knowledge that losing to WVU wouldn't necessarily kill our chances for getting to #13. Of course, my mood shifted again over the final 2 1/2 minutes of regulation and overtime.

Sooooooo out of the 16 possible outcomes of the KU/WVU/Baylor/Tech round robin, we're now down to 4 potential outcomes, and ALL of them have us sitting alone in 1st place. KU will either be 11-3 or 12-4 after Saturday with 4 games to play. Here's how it stacks up:

Best Scenario: KU wins, Tech Wins: We'd be up 3 on Baylor and 4 on WVU.

Middle Scenario #1: KU wins, WVU wins: Wed be up 3 on both Baylor and WVU who would be tied for 2nd (this might be my favorite option since it would make the Baylor/WVU game a bigger deal).

Middle Scenario #2: KU loses, Tech beats WVU: We'd remain up a game on Baylor and 3 up on WVU, which would mean that we split the series with both teams.

Worst Scenario: KU loses and WVU wins: We'd be up 1 on Baylor and 3 on WVU.

Note that in ALL scenarios, we're alone in 1st place.

We also have an easier road in the last 4 games:

KU: TCU, @Texas, OU, @OSU
Baylor: OU, @ISU, WVU, Texas
WVU: Texas, @TCU, @Baylor, ISU

As you can see, not only do Baylor and WVU play each other (somebody's going to get an L), but both teams also have to play ISU. Baylor will have a tough time in Ames, and has home court advantage over WVU. WVU gets ISU in Morgantown, but has to pay @Baylor and @TCU against a scrappy and upcoming team there.

Frankly, I think by the time we get to Texas, the fans will have already regressed into football mode, and I think that while we've got some kind of mental block when it comes to playing at OSU, it's quite possible that we'll have already clinched the title before the game even starts.

Currently the probability of KU winning the Big 12 is 91.1% for an outright win and 98.7% for a shared title. Heck, I ran the odds assuming every game was a 50/50 proposition and the probabilities dropped to 90% for a shared title and 75% for an outright title. From a probabilistic standpoint this puppy is in bed. Sure, anything can happen but year in and year out these probabilities hold very sound. Games six and game 13 were the key. After 5 games KU's probabilities were 18%/31%. Baylor and West Virginia still play one more time. Sure, a win this weekend is huge but from a probabilistic standpoint not that significant. Another amazing year for the good guys. We have the recipe this season to do real damage in the post-season. Our Achilles is front court depth. But our backcourt is simply other than. I hope fans are appreciating the amazing year Frank Mason is having. Statistically it is eye-popping.

After last nights game where we had a .01% chance of winning and ended up winning I hate to count any chickens before their time or they hatch or are cooked for breakfast

I too don't like counting chickens, but the reality is that at this point it would take a fairly colossal collapse for us not to win at least a share. In fact, I imagine that if in a couple weeks we don't have the title outright (not shared) there will be quite a bit of complaining around these parts.

A win is certainly possible on Saturday (and we've got some time to rest up for it), and then the rest of our games are against the bottom half of the conference. Regardless of the outcome on Saturday, if we sputter out in the last 4 games and lose 2 or 3 of those, the worry will be less about #13 (which we'd still likely get) but about whatever could be happening to have a weak finish against inferior teams.

Right now, it's all about keeping guys healthy (especially Landon, IMHO, because of depth issues) and keeping guys out of trouble (i.e. no more off court drama).

Agreed. If we do not at least share number 13 at this point there will be other questions about this team. I really hope we can avoid any more injuries as Doke would have been nice to have this year. I was just being difficult about the statistics. Probably because I was the one who folded and gave up on the guys last night.

Fun fact: with a 2 game lead and 5 left, our "magic number" is 3. If we win on Saturday it falls to 1 (a loss keeps it at 3). So right now, we could theoretically be cutting down nets on Wednesday at AFH, although we could be clinching "at least a share" which is usually not the moment HCBS chooses to pull out the scissors.

I've counted my chickens, and I have 13. Magic number is one. Almost the best possible outcome if Tech had beaten WVU. Nevertheless we need to go 1-3 to get at least a share of the title, and 2 wins salts it away for us alone without help. Since Baylor, WVU and ISU all play before our game vs TCU on Wednesday, we'll have a clear idea where we stand.

Pretty good season so far.

It has definitely been a fun season. Our guys have played very well and continue to get better. What a terrific accomplishment 13 years of being the best team in, as the announcers say, "one of the best leagues if not the best" league year in and year out. We are witnessing greatness.