predictions for Texas Tech game

Although Texas Tech hasn't looked quite as impressive as it did when knocking
off West Virginia, the Red Raiders do share one characteristic with conference
leaders Kansas and Baylor, in that they've lost just one conference home game.
Problem is, they haven't won a single conference road game, hence they sit
squarely in eighth place.  But their prowess at home is cause for concern.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 5.0 point margin, with a 74.9 percent probability of
winning the game.  The two teams average 147.8 points, so the suggested final
score is Kansas 76, Texas Tech 71.  Kansas has played an average of 0.4 points
above expectation, while Texas Tech has played an average of 0.3 points above
expectation, with the difference being in the rounding, so it doesn't really
affect the projected margin.  Monday's game featured the conference's two most
consistent teams, and today's game isn't a whole lot different, in that Texas
Tech is the conference's third most consistent team, being just a fraction of
a point less consistent than Kansas State.  Kansas has played 4 out of 24 games
below expectation by more than 5 points, corresponding to a 16.7 percent chance
of losing, while Texas Tech has played 6 out of 24 games above expectation by
more than 4 points, corresponding to a 25.0 percent chance of winning, with
those two averaging to a 20.8 percent chance of Kansas losing, a tad more
optimistic than the 25.1 percent chance of losing derived from the Sagarin
Predictor ratings.  Both teams are showing negative trends, though neither is
statistically significant.  Both teams have negative mental toughness ratings,
but that helps a team playing a weaker opponent and hurts a team playing a
stronger opponent.  Taken at face value, the margin increases to 6.1 points
for Kansas.  The new Sagarin "offense-defense" method makes the margin 5.1
points, with the final score being Kansas 75, Texas Tech 70.

Massey gives Kansas a 6.0 point margin, with a 72 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 75, Texas Tech 69.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 7.7 units, as well as
the better adjusted defense by 2.9 units, which makes the advantage for Kansas
10.6 units.  The average adjusted tempo is 66.7 possessions, which makes the
margin 7.1 points.  Subtract the home court advantage, which Sagarin
currently has at 3.0 points, and the margin becomes 4.1 points.  The final
score would then be Kansas 74, Texas Tech 70.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 4.5 point margin, with a Vegas implied final score
of Kansas 74.5 (you pick the rounding), Texas Tech 70.  Among the key
offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven of the eight categories;
Texas Tech has a smaller turnover percentage.  Among the key defensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in five of the seven categories; Texas Tech holds
opponents to fewer points per game and commits fewer personal fouls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 6.5 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at
4 points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  His total points is 149,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 78, Texas Tech 71, while the Vegas total is
143, suggesting a final score of Kansas 73.5, Texas Tech 69.5 (you pick the
roundings).  By the way, Dunkel is picking Gonzaga to lose its undefeated
status to St. Mary's.  He's also calling the Baylor and Oklahoma State games
even.  Wow.  To borrow a phrase from Dave Armstrong.

Real Time gives Kansas a 1.0 point margin, with a 51.8 percent probability
of winning the game, and a final score of Kansas 81, Texas Tech 80.

Collegiate Basketball News still has Baylor at #1 in the RPI, with Villanova
still at #2.  Kansas moved into the #3 slot after Louisville and North Carolina
both lost.  Oklahoma State is still third in the Big 12 at #30, while West
Virginia is #33.  TCU is #34, Kansas State is #44, with Iowa State at #48.
Those are all good enough to be dancing next month.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 4.5 point margin with a 65.1 percent probability of winning,
and a final score of Kansas 74, Texas Tech 70.

Don Davis' January 26 email gives Kansas a 5.0 point margin, with a 74.1 percent
probability of winning and a final score of Kansas 77, Texas Tech 72.

Colley gives Kansas a 9.2 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 5.4 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

The new and improved BPI gives Kansas a 3.9 point margin, with a 65.3 percent
probability of winning.

The LRMC has Kansas ranked #9, down a spot from where Kansas was ranked before
the Kansas State game.  I don't understand why Kansas would fall, having won
by the amount predicted.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 2.0 point margin with a 58 percent probability
of winning the game.  The suggested final score is Kansas 75, Texas Tech 73.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 2.7 point margin.

There are eight common opponents, all in conference, two of which Kansas has
played twice (Iowa State, Kansas State) and two of which Texas Tech has played
twice (Oklahoma, TCU), plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us thirteen
scores to compare:

KU   +4 ISU on road ( +8 neutral court)     KU   -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court)
TTU  -7 ISU on road ( -3 neutral court)     TTU  -7 ISU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU   +7 TTU on road (+11 neutral court)     KU   -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)

KU  -16 WVU on road (-12 neutral court)
TTU  +1 WVU at home ( -3 neutral court)
KU  -13 TTU on road ( -9 neutral court)

KU   +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
TTU  +1 KSU at home ( -3 neutral court)     TTU  +1 KSU at home ( -3 neutral court)
KU   -3 TTU on road ( +1 neutral court)     KU   +6 TTU on road (+10 neutral court)

KU  +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral court)     KU  +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral court)
TTU  -9 OU  on road ( -5 neutral court)     TTU  +8 OU  at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU  +16 TTU on road (+20 neutral court)     KU   +7 TTU on road (+11 neutral court)

KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)     KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)
TTU  +6 TCU at home ( +2 neutral court)     TTU  -1 TCU on road ( +3 neutral court)
KU   +4 TTU on road ( +8 neutral court)     KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)

KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
TTU -19 OSU at home (-23 neutral court)
KU  +22 TTU on road (+26 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)
TTU  -4 BU  on road (  0 neutral court)
KU   -3 TTU on road ( +1 neutral court)

KU  +12 UT  at home ( +8 neutral court)
TTU  -4 UT  on road (  0 neutral court)
KU   +4 TTU on road ( +8 neutral court)

KU  +17 TTU at home (+13 neutral court)
KU   +9 TTU on road (+13 neutral court)

Nine of the thirteen comparisons favor Kansas, but the average is only
3.9 points in favor of Kansas, a little less than the Sagarin margin.

Some of you might be wondering why the common opponent comparison assumes
a home court advantage of 4 points when Sagarin has it down at 3 points.
Well, historically the home court advantage in the Big 12 has been larger
than the national average, even more than 4 points.  Admittedly, however,
last season's home court advantage in the Big 12 was the smallest I've
seen it since I started computing it, down to 3.55 points.  And so far
this season, the home court advantage in the Big 12 has been essentially
nonexistent!  Kansas did better on the road than at home against both
Iowa State and Kansas State.  West Virginia did better on the road than
at home against both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.  And Kansas State did
better on the road than at home against Baylor.  Those have all offset
the cases in which the team fared better at home than on the road.  I
don't expect that trend to continue, but as long as it does, it bodes
well when Kansas is on the road.  However, until the home court advantage
for a full season dips below 3.5 points, 4 is a closer integer than 3 is.

Players to watch:  Forward Zach Smith plays the most minutes, grabs the most
rebounds, and blocks the most shots, but he also commits the most turnovers;
guard Keenan Evans scores the most points and dishes the most assists; guard
Devon Thomas is their leading thief; forward Aaron Ross commits the most
personal fouls, while playing the sixth-most minutes.  But if we can't make
foul shots worth a darn, what difference does that make?

So, the various prognostications range from a 9.2 point win (Colley) to a
1 point win (Real Time).  The average is 4.9 points in favor of Kansas,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 76, Texas Tech 71.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  7   # 10   # 10   #  4   #  3   +0.4    6.7   -0.09 +/- 0.20   -0.21 +/- 0.14
Texas Tech     # 40   # 76   # 38   # 44   # 48   +0.3    8.0   -0.22 +/- 0.24   -0.14 +/- 0.12
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  3  #  1   #  9   #  7   #  8  #  3    #  6    #  3   # 26   #  3   # 22
Texas Tech     # 48  # 64   # 41   # 80   # 36  # 50    # 54    # 80   #131   # 89   #151
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  4   #  4   # 11   #  3   #  3   #  2   #  3   1.146   21-3     #     #   
Texas Tech     # 54   # 52   # 43   # 83   # 89   # 48   # 47   0.683   16-8     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  2  # 15    #  7  #  2    # 10  # 14    #  9  #  2    #  4  #  1    # 10  # 14
Texas Tech     # 61  # 97    # 48  # 74    # 38  # 65    # 36  # 89    # 71  # 83    # 44  # 68

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 29 Indiana                     99 103    +5.94    -9.94
NEUT   #  9 Duke                        77  75    +0.00    +2.00
HOME   #185 Siena                       86  65   +24.63    -3.63
HOME   #128 UAB                         83  63   +21.16    -1.16
HOME   # 51 Georgia                     65  54   +12.70    -1.70
HOME   #130 NC Asheville                95  57   +21.21   +16.79
HOME   #211 Long Beach State            91  61   +26.74    +3.26
HOME   # 85 Stanford                    89  74   +17.12    -2.12
HOME   #252 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +29.24   +13.76
HOME   # 84 Nebraska                    89  72   +17.07    -0.07
HOME   # 83 Davidson                    89  71   +16.95    +1.05
AWAY   #203 UNLV                        71  53   +20.01    -2.01
AWAY   # 37 TCU                         86  80    +4.75    +1.25
HOME   # 31 Kansas State                90  88    +9.87    -7.87
HOME   # 38 Texas Tech                  85  68   +11.01    +5.99
AWAY   # 62 Oklahoma                    81  70    +8.46    +2.54
HOME   # 23 Oklahoma State              87  80    +7.37    -0.37
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                  76  72    +0.68    +3.32
HOME   # 59 Texas                       79  67   +13.78    -1.78
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               69  85    -5.48   -10.52
AWAY   #  5 Kentucky                    79  73    -4.18   +10.18
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      73  68    +4.96    +0.04
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                  89  92    +6.72    -9.72
AWAY   # 31 Kansas State                74  71    +3.83    -0.83
AWAY   # 38 Texas Tech                            +4.97             0.749
HOME   #  2 West Virginia                         +0.56             0.521
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                                -1.08             0.444
HOME   # 37 TCU                                  +10.79             0.927
AWAY   # 59 Texas                                 +7.74             0.801
HOME   # 62 Oklahoma                             +14.50             0.954
AWAY   # 23 Oklahoma State                        +1.33             0.549

Here is Texas Tech's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #255 Houston Baptist             93  67   +21.43    +4.57
HOME   #292 North Texas                 70  43   +24.01    +2.99
HOME   #283 Eastern Kentucky            90  71   +23.02    -4.02
NEUT   # 76 Auburn                      65  67    +5.08    -7.08
NEUT   #138 Utah State                  75  51   +10.84   +13.16
HOME   #317 Idaho State                 91  58   +26.38    +6.62
HOME   #312 Incarnate Word              69  48   +26.02    -5.02
HOME   #131 Rice                        85  84   +13.35   -12.35
HOME   #290 UTSA                        87  50   +23.48   +13.52
HOME   #328 Nicholls State              89  46   +28.62   +14.38
AWAY   #101 Richmond                    79  72    +4.82    +2.18
HOME   #347 Longwood                    91  60   +33.62    -2.62
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                  56  63    -7.31    +0.31
HOME   #  2 West Virginia               77  76    -7.43    +8.43
AWAY   # 10 Kansas                      68  85   -11.01    -5.99
HOME   # 31 Kansas State                66  65    +1.88    -0.88
AWAY   # 62 Oklahoma                    75  84    +0.47    -9.47
HOME   # 37 TCU                         75  69    +2.80    +3.20
HOME   # 23 Oklahoma State              64  83    -0.62   -18.38
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                      61  65    -9.07    +5.07
HOME   #150 LSU                         77  64   +14.49    -1.49
AWAY   # 59 Texas                       58  62    -0.25    -3.75
HOME   # 62 Oklahoma                    77  69    +6.51    +1.49
AWAY   # 37 TCU                         61  62    -3.24    +2.24
HOME   # 10 Kansas                                -4.97             0.251
HOME   # 14 Baylor                                -3.03             0.356
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia                        -13.47             0.110
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                            -1.27             0.451
AWAY   # 23 Oklahoma State                        -6.66             0.277
HOME   # 59 Texas                                 +5.79             0.726
AWAY   # 31 Kansas State                          -4.16             0.299