Big 12 projection, Round 10

Round 10 was wild, with all the contenders losing at home, but the only
change in the projected standings was Kansas State moving ahead of TCU.
I guess the Wildcats 2 point road win over Baylor was more impressive
than TCU's 15 point home win over Texas.

In Round 11, West Virginia has to go to Norman to face a Sooner team that
was good enough to beat them in Morgantown.  Baylor has to go to Stillwater
to face a Cowboy team that was good enough to beat West Virginia in
Morgantown.  Kansas has to go to Manhattan to face a Wildcat team that was
good enough to beat Baylor in Waco.

                      Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  9  Kansas          13.60  13.84  14.52  14.52  14.05  14.53  13.65    8  2  @KSU (Mo)   KU  by  4.0 RW
# 14  Baylor          12.17  12.63  12.68  13.27  13.34  13.00  12.04    7  3  @OSU (We)
#  1  West Virginia   14.26  14.23  12.95  12.04  12.53  12.90  12.00    6  4  @OU  (We)   WVU by 10.8 RW
# 18  Iowa State      11.02  10.42   9.79  10.18  10.41   9.87  10.72    6  4  @UT  (Tu)   ISU by  4.5 RW
# 21  Oklahoma State   6.61   6.53   5.52   6.51   7.00   7.72   8.67    4  6   BU  (We)   OSU by  0.8
# 30  Kansas State     7.26   6.72   7.62   8.63   8.44   7.57   8.61    5  5   KU  (Mo)
# 38  TCU              7.72   8.57   8.13   7.49   6.97   7.69   8.01    5  5   TTU (Tu)   TCU by  3.5
# 39  Texas Tech       8.78   7.68   8.14   7.10   7.04   6.50   6.79    4  6  @TCU (Tu)
# 60  Texas            4.71   4.82   4.64   4.65   5.03   5.69   5.27    3  7   ISU (Tu)
# 61  Oklahoma         3.87   4.56   6.01   5.61   5.19   4.53   4.24    2  8   WVU (We)

Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 10.  Sagarin retains the
season lead.
 
Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Er1or         1     1     1                             1     3           1           1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  Real           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  Real
TCU over UT      5.7   7.0   7.4   7.0   3.0   7.0  11.5   6.1   6.8   7.1   4.0   9.8   7.7   8.2   3.4  15.0     15     9.3   8.0   7.6   8.0  12.0   8.0   3.5   8.9   8.2   7.9  11.0   5.2   7.3   6.8  11.6   0.0
TTU over OU      6.2   5.0   6.7   6.5   1.5   7.0  11.6   6.5   6.8   9.0   4.0   9.7   7.3   7.8   6.4  18.0      8     1.8   3.0   1.3   1.5   6.5   1.0   3.6   1.5   1.2   1.0   4.0   1.7   0.7   0.2   1.6  10.0
KU  over ISU     7.3  10.0   8.8  11.0   1.5  11.0  15.0   7.8  11.1  10.8  12.0   8.5   7.1   7.6  11.9  14.0     -3    10.3  13.0  11.8  14.0   4.5  14.0  18.0  10.8  14.1  13.8  15.0  11.5  10.1  10.6  14.9  17.0
BU  over KSU     8.9   8.0   8.8   8.5   1.0   8.5  15.3   7.9   9.4  10.3   6.0   9.1   9.1   9.6   7.0  15.0     -2    10.9  10.0  10.8  10.5   3.0  10.5  17.3   9.9  11.4  12.3   8.0  11.1  11.1  11.6   9.0  17.0
WVU over OSU    11.0   9.0   9.7  11.0   6.0  11.0   7.9  11.2   9.6  18.3   5.0  10.8  11.7  12.2   6.8   8.0     -7    18.0  16.0  16.7  18.0  13.0  18.0  14.9  18.2  16.6  25.3  12.0  17.8  18.7  19.2  13.8  15.0

total this round                                                                                                         50.3  50.0  48.2  52.0  39.0  51.5  57.3  49.3  51.5  60.3  50.0  47.3  47.9  48.4  50.9  59.0
previous total                                                                                                          305.1 321.0 316.4 311.5 385.0 308.5 397.2 320.5 324.6 107.1 335.0 339.3 335.4 341.0 343.2  35.0
cumulative                                                                                                              355.4 371.0 364.6 363.5 424.0 360.0 454.5 369.8 376.1 167.4 385.0 386.6 383.3 389.4 394.1  94.0
per game (total of 50)                                                                                                    7.1   7.4   7.3   7.3   8.5   7.2   9.1   7.4   7.5   8.4   7.7   7.7   7.7   7.8   7.9   9.4

No road wins were projected for Round 10, but three happened, all at the
expense of the contenders.  Another three road wins are projected for
Round 11, and there could have been a fourth, except the latest ratings
flipped the sign on the Baylor at Oklahoma State game.

Road wins (20 out of 50)                Home losses                             Differential (RW-HL)
-------------------------------------   -------------------------------------   --------------------
3 Baylor          OU  KSU TCU           1 Baylor          KSU                   +2 Baylor        
3 Iowa State      OSU OU  KU            1 Kansas          ISU                   +2 Kansas        
3 Kansas          TCU OU  ISU           1 Texas Tech      OSU                   +1 Iowa State    
3 Oklahoma State  TTU OU  WVU           2 Iowa State      KU  WVU               +1 West Virginia 
3 West Virginia   OSU UT  ISU           2 Kansas State    BU  TCU                0 Kansas State  
2 Kansas State    OSU BU                2 TCU             KU  BU                 0 Oklahoma State
2 TCU             UT  KSU               2 Texas           TCU WVU                0 TCU           
1 Oklahoma        WVU                   2 West Virginia   OU  OSU               -1 Texas Tech    
0 Texas                                 3 Oklahoma State  WVU ISU KSU           -2 Texas         
0 Texas Tech                            4 Oklahoma        BU  KU  ISU OSU       -3 Oklahoma      

Inconsistencies generally went up, but the value for Kansas remains
under 7, still an amazingly low number.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
West Virginia   +1.77    Kansas            6.91    
Oklahoma State  +1.38    Kansas State      7.89    
TCU             +1.15    TCU               8.23    
Iowa State      +0.77    Texas Tech        8.25    
Baylor          +0.65    Baylor            8.60    
Kansas State    +0.63    Oklahoma         10.63    
Kansas          +0.37    Texas            11.12    
Texas Tech      +0.28    Iowa State       12.54    
Oklahoma        -0.83    West Virginia    13.52    
Texas           -0.92    Oklahoma State   14.02    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Oklahoma State  +0.38 +/- 0.48    Kansas State    +0.24 +/- 0.13
Texas           +0.34 +/- 0.35    Texas           +0.17 +/- 0.23
Kansas State    +0.12 +/- 0.25    Baylor          +0.16 +/- 0.16
Kansas          -0.07 +/- 0.22    Oklahoma State  +0.03 +/- 0.24
TCU             -0.14 +/- 0.28    Oklahoma        -0.08 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma        -0.17 +/- 0.36    West Virginia   -0.09 +/- 0.22
Texas Tech      -0.26 +/- 0.26    Texas Tech      -0.14 +/- 0.13
Baylor          -0.30 +/- 0.29    Kansas          -0.19 +/- 0.15
Iowa State      -0.48 +/- 0.42    Iowa State      -0.20 +/- 0.21
West Virginia   -0.71 +/- 0.41    TCU             -0.22 +/- 0.16

The conference now has six of the top nine strengths of schedule.  TCU's
rating and ranking fell slightly; I guess playing Texas at home isn't
considered very challenging in an otherwise tough conference.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma State  86.50   Baylor          62.45   Oklahoma State  164.32   West Virginia   +19.04   
West Virginia   86.30   Kansas State    65.83   Kansas          155.91   Kansas          +10.61   
Kansas          83.26   Texas Tech      66.09   West Virginia   153.57   Iowa State       +9.68   
Iowa State      80.68   West Virginia   67.26   Iowa State      151.68   Baylor           +9.45   
TCU             75.59   Texas           69.17   Oklahoma        150.64   Texas Tech       +8.70   
Texas Tech      74.78   TCU             69.50   TCU             145.09   Oklahoma State   +8.68   
Oklahoma        74.55   Iowa State      71.00   Texas Tech      140.87   Kansas State     +8.17   
Kansas State    74.00   Kansas          72.65   Kansas State    139.83   TCU              +6.09   
Baylor          71.91   Oklahoma        76.09   Texas           137.61   Texas            -0.74   
Texas           68.43   Oklahoma State  77.82   Baylor          134.36   Oklahoma         -1.55   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma State  81.76 ( 1)
Oklahoma        81.41 ( 2)
Baylor          80.92 ( 4)
Iowa State      80.59 ( 6)
Texas           80.20 ( 7)
Kansas          80.03 ( 9)
TCU             77.93 (31)
Kansas State    76.57 (52)
West Virginia   76.37 (55)
Texas Tech      74.15 (80)