predictions for Iowa State game

Compared to the last three games, today's game seems like a bit of a breather.
Indeed, it's the easiest (on paper) of the next five games.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 7.3 point margin, with a 76.6 percent probability of
winning the game.  The two teams average 152.5 points, so the suggested final
score is Kansas 80, Iowa State 73.  Kansas has played an average of 0.5 points
above expectation, but Iowa State has played an average of 0.7 points above
expectation, which decreases the margin for Kansas to 7.1 points.  Kansas
is way more consistent than Iowa State.  The Jayhawks have played just 3 of
their 22 games by more than 7.3 points below expectation, corresponding to a
13.6 percent probability of losing, while the Cyclones have played 5 of their
21 games by more than 7.3 points above expectation, corresponding to a 24
percent probability of winning.  Those two average to a 19 percent chance of
Kansas losing, somewhat more optimistic than the probability derived from the
Sagarin Predictor ratings.  Kansas has a weakly positive trend of no
statistical significance, while Iowa State has a decidedly negative trend.
Both teams have negative mental toughness ratings; the value for Kansas has
marginal statistical signficance, while the value for Iowa State is more
significant.  Taken at face value, the margin for Kansas increases to 11.9
points.  The new Sagarin "offense-defense" method keeps the margin at 7.3
points, though his rounding makes the final score Kansas 80, Iowa State 72.

Massey gives Kansas a 10.0 point margin, with an 83 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 81, Iowa State 71.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 8.4 units, but Iowa
State has the better adjusted defense by 0.2 units, which makes the advantage
for Kansas 8.2 units.  The average adjusted tempo is 69.9 possessions, which
makes the margin 5.7 points.  Add the home court advantage, which Sagarin
currently has at 3.1 points, and the margin becomes 8.8 points.  The final
score would then be Kansas 79, Iowa State 70.

Greenfield gives Kansas an 11.0 point margin, with a Vegas implied final score
of Kansas 82.5, Iowa State 71.5 (you pick the roundings).  Among the key
offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven of the eight categories;
Iowa State has a lower turnover percentage.  Among the key defensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in four of the seven categories; Iowa State holds
opponents to fewer points per game, has more steals per game, and commits
fewer personal fourls per game.

And here is one reason why I hate these early tips.  It's after 4 a.m. Hawaii
time, and Dunkel is just now populating his list of prognostications, but only
three of the Big 12 games are up, and Kansas isn't among them.  Usually they
are all posted if I prepare this posting mid-morning, but in this case, the
game tips at 9 a.m. Hawaii time.  If you want this to post a minimum of two
hours before tip, that sets a 7 a.m. deadline, which means starting the
preparation before 6 a.m.  That's way too early for a night person.  As it is,
I'm going to get only about 4 hours of sleep before the game starts, and I
really don't want to wait until Dunkel gets his act together.

Real Time gives Kansas a 14.0 point margin with a final score of Kansas 87,
Iowa State 73.  Amazingly, the Scouting link agrees, and shows the probability
of winning as 76.5 percent.

Collegiate Basketball News still has Baylor at #1 in the RPI, with Villanova still
at #2, and Kansas still at #3.  West Virginia is still third in the Big 12 at #25,
while Oklahoma State is fourth at #35.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 7.8 point margin with a 74.5 percent probability of winning,
and a final score of Kansas 79, Iowa State 71.

Don Davis' January 26 email gives Kansas a 6.3 point margin, with a 77.1 percent
probability of winning, and a final score of Kansas 79, Iowa State 73.

Colley gives Kansas a 15.0 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 10.1 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

The new and improved BPI gives Kansas a 10.8 point margin, with an 83.5 percent
probability of winning.

The LRMC has Kansas ranked #8, down a spot from where Kansas was ranked before
the Baylor game.  In fact, Kansas fell in most of the computer predictive
rankings.  I don't understand why.  Kansas won the Baylor game by the amount
predicted.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 12.0 point margin with an 86 percent probability of
winning the game.  The suggested final score is Kansas 82, Iowa State 70.

Crotistics gives Kansas an 8.5 point margin.

There are eight common opponents, all in conference, plus the head-to-head in
Ames, giving us nine scores to compare:

KU  +17 TTU at home (+13 neutral court)
ISU  +7 TTU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU  +14 ISU at home (+10 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)
ISU  -2 BU  on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU   +3 ISU at home ( -1 neutral court)

KU  +12 UT  at home ( +8 neutral court)
ISU  +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU   +7 ISU at home ( +3 neutral court)

KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
ISU +10 OSU on road (+14 neutral court)
KU   -7 ISU at home (-11 neutral court)

KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)
ISU  -7 TCU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU  +17 ISU at home (+13 neutral court)

KU  +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral court)
ISU  +5 OU  on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU  +10 ISU at home ( +6 neutral court)

KU   +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
ISU  +5 KSU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU   +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)

KU  -16 WVU on road (-12 neutral court)
ISU -13 WVU at home (-17 neutral court)
KU   +9 ISU at home ( +5 neutral court)

KU   +4 ISU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU  +12 ISU at home ( +8 neutral court)

Eight of the nine comparisons favor Kansas, with the average being 7.3 points,
right in the range of the various prognostications.  Only Oklahoma State did
Iowa State handle more easily than Kansas did.

Players to watch:  Guard Monte Morris plays the msot minutes, scores the most
points, and dishes the most assists; guard Deonte Burton grabs the most rebounds
blocks the most shots, and is their leading thief, but also commits the most
turnovers and the most personal fouls.  The Cyclones appear to be a two-man show.
Forward Darrell Bowie has been suspended for one game for not meeting program
standards; his 18 minutes per game make him their sixth man.

So, the various prognostications range from a 15.0 point win (Colley) to a
6 point win (Davis, but out of date).  The average is 9.6 points in favor of
Kansas, suggesting a final score of Kansas 81, Iowa State 71.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  7   # 11   #  8   #  4   #  4   +0.5    6.7   +0.05 +/- 0.23   -0.15 +/- 0.15
Iowa State     # 22   # 10   # 20   # 24   # 25   +0.7   12.5   -0.67 +/- 0.44   -0.27 +/- 0.21
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  2  #  1   #  7   # 10   #  6  #  1    #  7    #  3   # 22   #  3   # 22
Iowa State     # 33  # 15   # 28   # 14   # 24  # 11    # 33    # 49   # 36   # 52   # 39
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  3   #  3   #  9   #  3   #  3   #  1   #  2   1.144   20-2     #     #   
Iowa State     # 38   # 37   # 26   # 59   # 52   # 32   # 33   1.037   13-8     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  3  # 24    #  6  #  3    #  9  # 14    #  8  #  2    #  5  #  1    #  8  # 12
Iowa State     # 54  # 32    # 29  # 20    # 26  # 11    # 27  # 31    #108  # 32    # 25  # 20

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 27-4:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 29 Indiana                     99 103    +6.38   -10.38
NEUT   #  9 Duke                        77  75    +0.32    +1.68
HOME   #178 Siena                       86  65   +25.06    -4.06
HOME   #118 UAB                         83  63   +20.86    -0.86
HOME   # 52 Georgia                     65  54   +13.06    -2.06
HOME   #127 NC Asheville                95  57   +21.50   +16.50
HOME   #222 Long Beach State            91  61   +27.78    +2.22
HOME   # 94 Stanford                    89  74   +18.33    -3.33
HOME   #262 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +30.52   +12.48
HOME   # 84 Nebraska                    89  72   +17.66    -0.66
HOME   # 77 Davidson                    89  71   +16.79    +1.21
AWAY   #186 UNLV                        71  53   +19.38    -1.38
AWAY   # 37 TCU                         86  80    +5.34    +0.66
HOME   # 34 Kansas State                90  88   +10.94    -8.94
HOME   # 40 Texas Tech                  85  68   +11.75    +5.25
AWAY   # 62 Oklahoma                    81  70    +8.72    +2.28
HOME   # 25 Oklahoma State              87  80    +8.37    -1.37
AWAY   # 20 Iowa State                  76  72    +1.17    +2.83
HOME   # 58 Texas                       79  67   +14.07    -2.07
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia               69  85    -5.65   -10.35
AWAY   #  2 Kentucky                    79  73    -5.24   +11.24
HOME   # 13 Baylor                      73  68    +5.09    -0.09
HOME   # 20 Iowa State                            +7.29             0.766
AWAY   # 34 Kansas State                          +4.82             0.747
AWAY   # 40 Texas Tech                            +5.63             0.771
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                         +0.47             0.518
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                                -1.03             0.446
HOME   # 37 TCU                                  +11.46             0.935
AWAY   # 58 Texas                                 +7.95             0.803
HOME   # 62 Oklahoma                             +14.84             0.949
AWAY   # 25 Oklahoma State                        +2.25             0.582

Here is Iowa State's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #331 Savannah State             113  71   +33.17    +8.83
HOME   #220 Mount St. Mary's            73  55   +23.53    -5.53
HOME   #324 The Citadel                130  63   +31.78   +35.22
NEUT   #176 Indiana State               73  71   +17.59   -15.59
NEUT   # 33 Miami-Florida               73  56    +3.56   +13.44
NEUT   #  4 Gonzaga                     71  73    -5.76    +3.76
HOME   # 14 Cincinnati                  54  55    +2.07    -3.07
HOME   #193 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           91  47   +21.60   +22.40
AWAY   # 70 Iowa                        64  78    +5.66   -19.66
AWAY   #213 Drake                       97  80   +16.76    +0.24
HOME   #342 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)      88  60   +35.97    -7.97
HOME   # 40 Texas Tech                  63  56    +7.52    -0.52
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                      63  65    -5.26    +3.26
HOME   # 58 Texas                       79  70    +9.84    -0.84
AWAY   # 25 Oklahoma State              96  86    -1.98   +11.98
AWAY   # 37 TCU                         77  84    +1.11    -8.11
HOME   #  8 Kansas                      72  76    -1.17    -2.83
AWAY   # 62 Oklahoma                    92  87    +4.49    +0.51
HOME   # 34 Kansas State                70  65    +6.71    -1.71
AWAY   # 56 Vanderbilt                  78  84    +3.39    -9.39
HOME   #  1 West Virginia               72  85    -3.76    -9.24
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                                -7.29             0.234
AWAY   # 58 Texas                                 +3.72             0.622
HOME   # 62 Oklahoma                             +10.61             0.816
AWAY   # 34 Kansas State                          +0.59             0.523
HOME   # 37 TCU                                   +7.23             0.751
AWAY   # 40 Texas Tech                            +1.40             0.552
HOME   # 13 Baylor                                +0.86             0.532
HOME   # 25 Oklahoma State                        +4.14             0.623
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia                         -9.88             0.221