- Forum
- Sports
- Basketball
- Team Rankings Predictive Rankings Index: KU is one of 6 ncaa title contenders
×
Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Team Rankings Predictive Rankings Index: KU is one of 6 ncaa title contenders
- ATXJayhawk
- Topic Author
- Offline
- Senior Member
Less
More
- Posts: 56
- Thank you received: 46
7 years 9 months ago #10972
by ATXJayhawk
Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!
Let me introduce you to a website I found out about two years ago called
Team Rankings
. What is Team Rankings you ask? Well, they are a stats website and they have a proprietary power ratings system that's been very accurate in predicting the actual contenders for the NCAA title.
Their power ratings system is called the Predictive Rankings & Ratings Index. Their rankings only go back to the 2006-2007 season, but they have been very accurate.
Here is the stat I found back testing it for each champion since the 2006-2007 season: 8 of the last 10 NCAA Tournament Champions were ranked in the top 6 of Team Rankings predictive rankings on 2/1.
The top 6 teams right now are Kentucky, West Virginia, Gonzaga, Kansas, Villanova, and Louisville/North Carolina (Both teams are tied).
How accurate are they? Well, last year the top 6 teams on 2/1 were North Carolina, Michigan State, Louisville, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Villanova. 3 of the final 4 teams were there out of the top 6 teams. Even the day before the tournament started last season on 3/14/16 the rankings were Kansas, Michigan State, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Villanova.
Here's the Team Rankings predictive ranking of the past 10 champions on this date:
Keep an eye on these rankings as we get closer to the NCAA tournament. The NCAA champion will likely be either Kentucky, West Virginia, Gonzaga, Kansas, Villanova, Louisville, or North Carolina this season. Thats a #2, #3, #1, #1, #1, and #2 seed right now based off ESPN's Bracketology.
Their power ratings system is called the Predictive Rankings & Ratings Index. Their rankings only go back to the 2006-2007 season, but they have been very accurate.
Here is the stat I found back testing it for each champion since the 2006-2007 season: 8 of the last 10 NCAA Tournament Champions were ranked in the top 6 of Team Rankings predictive rankings on 2/1.
The top 6 teams right now are Kentucky, West Virginia, Gonzaga, Kansas, Villanova, and Louisville/North Carolina (Both teams are tied).
How accurate are they? Well, last year the top 6 teams on 2/1 were North Carolina, Michigan State, Louisville, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Villanova. 3 of the final 4 teams were there out of the top 6 teams. Even the day before the tournament started last season on 3/14/16 the rankings were Kansas, Michigan State, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Villanova.
Here's the Team Rankings predictive ranking of the past 10 champions on this date:
- 2016 Villanova: 6th
2015 Duke: 3rd
2014 Uconn: 20th
2013 Louisville: 3rd
2012 Kentucky: 2nd
2011 Uconn: 23rd
2010 Duke: 2nd
2009 North Carolina: 1st
2008 Kansas: 1st
2007 Florida: 2nd
Keep an eye on these rankings as we get closer to the NCAA tournament. The NCAA champion will likely be either Kentucky, West Virginia, Gonzaga, Kansas, Villanova, Louisville, or North Carolina this season. Thats a #2, #3, #1, #1, #1, and #2 seed right now based off ESPN's Bracketology.
Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!
The following user(s) said Thank You: Bayhawk, porthawk
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Share this page:
- ATXJayhawk
- Topic Author
- Offline
- Senior Member
Less
More
- Posts: 56
- Thank you received: 46
7 years 9 months ago #10976
by ATXJayhawk
Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!
The last 10 champions performance against top 50 opponents the day before the NCAA tournament began
* 9 of the last 10 champions had 9 or more top 50 wins
* 8 of the last 10 champions had 4 of fewer top 50 losses
* 8 of the last 10 champions had a 69% winning percentage or better
Knowing this; which teams this year are closest to 9 wins over top 50 opponents, have 4 or fewer losses to top 50 opponents, and have a 69% winning percentage or better? Only 8 teams right now make the cut
* Gonzaga: 4-0, 100%
* Florida State: 9-2, 81.82%
* Kansas: 8-2, 80%
* Villanova: 7-2, 77.78%
* West Virginia: 6-2, 75%
* Baylor: 6-2, 75%
* Butler: 9-3, 75%
* North Carolina: 7-3, 70%
Teams missing the cut due to a winning % lower than 69%
* Virginia: 6-3, 66.67%
* Wisconsin: 6-3, 66.67%
* UCLA: 4-2, 66.67%
* Arizona: 4-2, 66.67%
* Louisville: 6-4, 60%
* Duke: 6-4, 60%
* Kentucky: 4-3, 57.14%
* Purdue: 4-3, 57.14%
* Creighton: 4-3, 57.14%
This is further proof that shows who the national title contenders are based the records of the past 10 champions against top 50 opponents.
* 9 of the last 10 champions had 9 or more top 50 wins
* 8 of the last 10 champions had 4 of fewer top 50 losses
* 8 of the last 10 champions had a 69% winning percentage or better
Knowing this; which teams this year are closest to 9 wins over top 50 opponents, have 4 or fewer losses to top 50 opponents, and have a 69% winning percentage or better? Only 8 teams right now make the cut
* Gonzaga: 4-0, 100%
* Florida State: 9-2, 81.82%
* Kansas: 8-2, 80%
* Villanova: 7-2, 77.78%
* West Virginia: 6-2, 75%
* Baylor: 6-2, 75%
* Butler: 9-3, 75%
* North Carolina: 7-3, 70%
Teams missing the cut due to a winning % lower than 69%
* Virginia: 6-3, 66.67%
* Wisconsin: 6-3, 66.67%
* UCLA: 4-2, 66.67%
* Arizona: 4-2, 66.67%
* Louisville: 6-4, 60%
* Duke: 6-4, 60%
* Kentucky: 4-3, 57.14%
* Purdue: 4-3, 57.14%
* Creighton: 4-3, 57.14%
This is further proof that shows who the national title contenders are based the records of the past 10 champions against top 50 opponents.
Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!
The following user(s) said Thank You: porthawk
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.