Big 12 projection, Round 9

No change in the first four slots in the projected standings, though the
cushion for Kansas increased.  Kansas State's home loss to TCU cost them
dearly, dropping out of the upper division all the way down to seventh
place.  Texas Tech losing to Texas, even though it was projected as a
loss, dropped the Red Raiders into eighth place.  The home win by Texas,
coupled with the home loss by Oklahoma in Bedlam Part I, elevated the
Longhorns over the Sooners into ninth place.  Oklahoma State moves into
the upper division, despite the fact that two other conference teams have
better newspaper conference records.  With the conference champion projected
to have a record of either 15-3 or 14-4, six teams have already been
eliminated from contention in the first half of the conference season, and
a seventh is on life support, and could be eliminated this weekend by the
leader.  It looks like a three-horse race.

All the home teams are favored in Round 10.

                      Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  8  Kansas          13.40  13.60  13.84  14.52  14.52  14.05  14.53    8  1   ISU (Sa)   KU  by  7.4
# 13  Baylor          12.73  12.17  12.63  12.68  13.27  13.34  13.00    7  2   KSU (Sa)   BU  by  9.0
#  1  West Virginia   13.84  14.26  14.23  12.95  12.04  12.53  12.90    6  3   OSU (Sa)   WVU by 11.0
# 20  Iowa State      10.29  11.02  10.42   9.79  10.18  10.41   9.87    5  4  @KU  (Sa)
# 25  Oklahoma State   7.21   6.61   6.53   5.52   6.51   7.00   7.72    3  6  @WVU (Sa)
# 37  TCU              7.21   7.72   8.57   8.13   7.49   6.97   7.69    4  5   UT  (Sa)   TCU by  5.7
# 34  Kansas State     7.43   7.26   6.72   7.62   8.63   8.44   7.57    4  5  @BU  (Sa)
# 40  Texas Tech       8.48   8.78   7.68   8.14   7.10   7.04   6.50    3  6   OU  (Sa)   TTU by  6.2
# 58  Texas            5.30   4.71   4.82   4.64   4.65   5.03   5.69    3  6  @TCU (Sa)
# 62  Oklahoma         4.11   3.87   4.56   6.01   5.61   5.19   4.53    2  7  @TTU (Sa)

Sagarin took honors for best prognostications in Round 9, and also
retained the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Er1or         1     1                                   1     3           1           1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  Real           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  Real
UT  over TTU     0.4  -1.0  -0.6  -1.0   5.5   0.0  -5.1   0.0  -1.0  -0.6   1.0  -1.6  -0.8  -0.3   3.6  -1.0      4     3.6   5.0   4.6   5.0   1.5   4.0   9.1   4.0   5.0   4.6   3.0   5.6   4.8   4.3   0.4   5.0
WVU over ISU     3.2   2.0   3.8   2.0   1.0   3.5   1.7   3.7   3.0   3.6   2.0   0.5   4.4   3.9   3.3   1.0     13     9.8  11.0   9.2  11.0  12.0   9.5  11.3   9.3  10.0   9.4  11.0  12.5   8.6   9.1   9.7  12.0
OSU over OU      3.6   4.0   5.5   1.5   8.0   1.0   5.2   5.3   3.4   2.4   1.0   3.3   5.8   5.4   8.2   4.0      2     1.6   2.0   3.5   0.5   6.0   1.0   3.2   3.3   1.4   0.4   1.0   1.3   3.8   3.4   6.2   2.0
KSU over TCU     4.3   8.0   5.6   6.0  10.5   6.0   3.9   4.7   5.8   7.0   8.0   5.4   3.9   4.4   4.6   9.0     -6    10.3  14.0  11.6  12.0  16.5  12.0   9.9  10.7  11.8  13.0  14.0  11.4   9.9  10.4  10.6  15.0
KU  over BU      5.1   5.0   3.0   6.5  -3.0   6.5   1.1   4.3   3.7   6.5   6.0   5.2   4.9   5.4   5.4   4.0      5     0.1   0.0   2.0   1.5   8.0   1.5   3.9   0.7   1.3   1.5   1.0   0.2   0.1   0.4   0.4   1.0

total this round                                                                                                         25.4  32.0  30.9  30.0  44.0  28.0  37.4  28.0  29.5  28.9  30.0  31.0  27.2  27.6  27.3  35.0
previous total                                                                                                          279.7 289.0 285.5 281.5 341.0 280.5 359.8 292.5 295.1  78.2 305.0 308.3 308.2 313.4 315.9
cumulative                                                                                                              305.1 321.0 316.4 311.5 385.0 308.5 397.2 320.5 324.6 107.1 335.0 339.3 335.4 341.0 343.2  35.0
per game (total of 45)                                                                                                    6.8   7.1   7.0   6.9   8.6   6.9   8.8   7.1   7.2   7.1   7.4   7.5   7.5   7.6   7.6   7.0

Two road wins were projected for Round 9, but three happened, with TCU going
into the Octogon and pulling off the upset.  No road wins are projected for
Round 10, starting all the rematches.

Road wins (17 out of 45)                Home losses                             Differential (RW-HL)
-------------------------------------   -------------------------------------   --------------------
3 Baylor          OU  KSU TCU           0 Baylor                                +3 Baylor        
3 Kansas          TCU OU  ISU           0 Kansas                                +3 Kansas        
3 West Virginia   OSU UT  ISU           1 Texas Tech      OSU                   +2 West Virginia 
2 Iowa State      OSU OU                1 West Virginia   OU                     0 Iowa State    
2 Oklahoma State  TTU OU                2 Iowa State      KU  WVU                0 TCU           
2 TCU             UT  KSU               2 Kansas State    BU  TCU               -1 Kansas State  
1 Kansas State    OSU                   2 TCU             KU  BU                -1 Oklahoma State
1 Oklahoma        WVU                   2 Texas           TCU WVU               -1 Texas Tech    
0 Texas                                 3 Oklahoma State  WVU ISU KSU           -2 Texas         
0 Texas Tech                            4 Oklahoma        BU  KU  ISU OSU       -3 Oklahoma      

The inconsistency for Kansas went back down.  That top-ranked mental
toughness didn't help Kansas State against TCU.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
West Virginia   +2.04    Kansas            6.67    
Oklahoma State  +1.32    Kansas State      7.76    
TCU             +1.16    TCU               8.34    
Baylor          +0.77    Baylor            8.37    
Iowa State      +0.72    Texas Tech        8.39    
Kansas State    +0.58    Oklahoma         11.09    
Kansas          +0.51    Texas            11.41    
Texas Tech      +0.29    Iowa State       12.53    
Oklahoma        -0.86    West Virginia    13.22    
Texas           -0.89    Oklahoma State   13.92    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas           +0.47 +/- 0.38    Kansas State    +0.21 +/- 0.13
Oklahoma State  +0.23 +/- 0.51    Texas           +0.21 +/- 0.24
Kansas          +0.05 +/- 0.23    Baylor          +0.16 +/- 0.16
Kansas State    +0.03 +/- 0.27    Oklahoma State  -0.05 +/- 0.24
Baylor          -0.19 +/- 0.31    West Virginia   -0.05 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma        -0.20 +/- 0.41    Oklahoma        -0.07 +/- 0.22
TCU             -0.30 +/- 0.30    Texas Tech      -0.14 +/- 0.13
Texas Tech      -0.32 +/- 0.28    Kansas          -0.16 +/- 0.15
West Virginia   -0.59 +/- 0.44    TCU             -0.21 +/- 0.16
Iowa State      -0.68 +/- 0.44    Iowa State      -0.27 +/- 0.21

Playing #1 West Virginia at home was marginally tougher than playing
#13 Baylor at home, so Iowa State traded places with Kansas once again
in strength of schedule.  Playing Kansas on the road is tougher than
playing Iowa State at home, so the relative order for Iowa State and
Kansas in strength of schedule won't change after Round 10, though
perhaps both will creep slightly higher in the rankings.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
West Virginia   86.91   Baylor          62.67   Oklahoma State  164.67   West Virginia   +20.41   
Oklahoma State  86.62   Texas Tech      65.86   Kansas          154.77   Kansas          +11.41   
Kansas          83.09   Kansas State    66.45   West Virginia   153.41   Baylor          +10.19   
Iowa State      80.05   West Virginia   66.50   Oklahoma        150.86   Iowa State       +9.81   
TCU             75.57   Texas           68.86   Iowa State      150.29   Texas Tech       +8.91   
Texas Tech      74.77   TCU             69.71   TCU             145.29   Oklahoma State   +8.57   
Kansas State    74.73   Iowa State      70.24   Kansas State    141.18   Kansas State     +8.27   
Oklahoma        74.71   Kansas          71.68   Texas Tech      140.64   TCU              +5.86   
Baylor          72.86   Oklahoma        76.14   Texas           137.45   Texas            -0.27   
Texas           68.59   Oklahoma State  78.05   Baylor          135.52   Oklahoma         -1.43   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma State  81.05 ( 1)
Oklahoma        80.88 ( 3)
Baylor          80.67 ( 5)
Texas           79.80 ( 8)
Iowa State      79.78 (10)
Kansas          79.77 (11)
TCU             78.14 (29)
West Virginia   75.74 (59)
Kansas State    75.52 (64)
Texas Tech      73.76 (86)