Big 12 projection, Round 8 prime

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asteroid
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7 years 9 months ago #10820 by asteroid

The changes are due strictly to changes in the Sagarin Predictor
ratings after Saturday's Challenge games.  Texas nearly pulled
off the upset, while Oklahoma was pitiful, so the Whorns took
over ninth place.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma State played Arkansas like
it did most of the other non-conference opponents, scoring big,
and that was enough to elevate the Pokes over Texas Tech.

Round 9 features Big Monday Bedlam; Sooners have looked bad since
knocking over West Virginia, while the Cowboys smoked Arkansas,
so Oklahoma State is projected to pick up a road win.  Texas has
a toss-up game with Texas Tech.  Two games involving upper
division teams with identical conference records.  Is there
enough magic in Hilton to knock off the Mountaineers?  Kansas
needs to win at home to keep its #1 spot in the projected standings.

                      Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8   8'
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  8  Kansas          13.40  13.60  13.84  14.52  14.52  14.05  14.24    7  1   BU  (We)   KU  by  5.2
# 13  Baylor          12.73  12.17  12.63  12.68  13.27  13.34  13.21    7  1  @KU  (We)
#  2  West Virginia   13.84  14.26  14.23  12.95  12.04  12.53  12.42    5  3  @ISU (Tu)   WVU by  3.3 RW
# 19  Iowa State      10.29  11.02  10.42   9.79  10.18  10.41  10.34    5  3   WVU (Tu)
# 33  Kansas State     7.43   7.26   6.72   7.62   8.63   8.44   8.40    4  4   TCU (We)   KSU by  4.3
# 36  Texas Tech       8.48   8.78   7.68   8.14   7.10   7.04   7.08    3  5  @UT  (We)
# 24  Oklahoma State   7.21   6.61   6.53   5.52   6.51   7.00   7.36    2  6  @OU  (Mo)   OSU by  3.6 RW
# 40  TCU              7.21   7.72   8.57   8.13   7.49   6.97   6.83    3  5  @KSU (We)
# 63  Oklahoma         4.11   3.87   4.56   6.01   5.61   5.19   4.94    2  6   OSU (Mo)
# 59  Texas            5.30   4.71   4.82   4.64   4.65   5.03   5.18    2  6   TTU (We)   UT  by  0.4

Two road wins are projected for Round 9, though a third game is close enough
to being a toss-up that three could occur.

Road wins (14 out of 40)                Home losses                             Differential (RW-HL)
-------------------------------------   -------------------------------------   --------------------
3 Baylor          OU  KSU TCU           0 Baylor                                +3 Baylor        
3 Kansas          TCU OU  ISU           0 Kansas                                +3 Kansas        
2 West Virginia   OSU UT                1 Iowa State      KU                    +1 West Virginia 
2 Iowa State      OSU OU                1 Kansas State    BU                    +1 Iowa State    
1 Kansas State    OSU                   1 Texas Tech      OSU                    0 Kansas State  
1 Oklahoma        WVU                   1 West Virginia   OU                    -1 TCU           
1 Oklahoma State  TTU                   2 TCU             KU  BU                -1 Texas Tech    
1 TCU             UT                    2 Texas           TCU WVU               -2 Oklahoma      
0 Texas                                 3 Oklahoma        BU  KU  ISU           -2 Oklahoma State
0 Texas Tech                            3 Oklahoma State  WVU ISU KSU           -2 Texas         

The inconsistency for Kansas jumped a little again, but still remains
amazingly low.  Kansas also flipped the sign on its trend.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
West Virginia   +2.04    Kansas            6.82    
Oklahoma State  +1.39    Kansas State      7.71    
TCU             +1.11    TCU               8.23    
Iowa State      +0.88    Texas Tech        8.50    
Baylor          +0.81    Baylor            8.57    
Kansas State    +0.69    Oklahoma         11.41    
Kansas          +0.55    Texas            11.66    
Texas Tech      +0.31    Iowa State       12.77    
Oklahoma        -0.90    West Virginia    13.42    
Texas           -0.95    Oklahoma State   14.25    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas           +0.47 +/- 0.42    Kansas State    +0.24 +/- 0.13
Oklahoma State  +0.28 +/- 0.56    Texas           +0.21 +/- 0.25
Kansas State    +0.17 +/- 0.28    Baylor          +0.18 +/- 0.17
Kansas          +0.07 +/- 0.25    Oklahoma State  -0.05 +/- 0.25
Baylor          -0.23 +/- 0.34    Oklahoma        -0.08 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma        -0.27 +/- 0.45    West Virginia   -0.09 +/- 0.23
Texas Tech      -0.31 +/- 0.31    Texas Tech      -0.15 +/- 0.14
TCU             -0.47 +/- 0.31    Kansas          -0.16 +/- 0.15
Iowa State      -0.63 +/- 0.49    Iowa State      -0.23 +/- 0.23
West Virginia   -0.78 +/- 0.46    TCU             -0.27 +/- 0.16

Playing LSU didn't exactly help Texas Tech's strength of schedule.
Although strength of schedule ratings changed quite a bit, the rankings
were far more stable, partly because there is less room to move among
the top teams.  Kansas did move ahead of Iowa State, and Kansas State
did move ahead of West Virginia.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma State  87.45   Baylor          62.25   Oklahoma State  166.20   West Virginia   +20.57   
West Virginia   86.90   Kansas State    65.43   Kansas          155.43   Kansas          +11.90   
Kansas          83.67   Texas Tech      66.14   West Virginia   153.24   Iowa State      +11.15   
Iowa State      80.55   West Virginia   66.33   Oklahoma        151.70   Baylor          +10.75   
Texas Tech      75.48   Texas           69.29   Iowa State      149.95   Texas Tech       +9.33   
Oklahoma        75.25   TCU             69.30   TCU             144.25   Kansas State     +9.14   
TCU             74.95   Iowa State      69.40   Texas Tech      141.62   Oklahoma State   +8.70   
Kansas State    74.57   Kansas          71.76   Kansas State    140.00   TCU              +5.65   
Baylor          73.00   Oklahoma        76.45   Texas           138.29   Texas            -0.29   
Texas           69.00   Oklahoma State  78.75   Baylor          135.25   Oklahoma         -1.20   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma State  80.87 ( 1)
Oklahoma        80.72 ( 3)
Baylor          79.88 ( 7)
Texas           79.80 ( 9)
Kansas          79.28 (13)
Iowa State      78.97 (17)
TCU             77.49 (29)
Kansas State    74.98 (65)
West Virginia   74.91 (67)
Texas Tech      72.95 (99)

The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, Bayhawk, jayhawk969, jaythawk1

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konza63
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c'85 Towering toward the Blue

7 years 9 months ago #10822 by konza63

Thanks as always, Kind Sir.

This is a critical week, it appears, for KU's pursuit of #13. Gotta beat Alfred P. Neuman's boys at home. Simple as that.

One aside, on the Big 12-SEC challenge: who makes up the game pairings? Because having WVU play lousy Texas A&M while the SEC's arguably 2nd-best team (Florida) got to play lousy OU did not benefit the Big 12 at all. Neither did Baylor playing lousy Ole Miss. Not fair or competitive pairings at all, in other words. KU-UK was appropriate; most of the others were horrible. And the current #2 SEC team (in the standings), South Carolina, didn't even have a Big 12 foe; they got to go to Columbia and slaughter the oft-slaughtered Misery squad. Weird.

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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asteroid
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7 years 9 months ago #10824 by asteroid

Pairings for this year's Challenge were announced last May, following a Final Four season for Oklahoma. The pairing with Florida seemed good at the time.

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konza63
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c'85 Towering toward the Blue

7 years 9 months ago #10830 by konza63

That's what I figured. Too bad they can't "re-seed" early in the new season, but I realize that would be logistically problematic.

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