predictions for Kentucky game

The relative conference standings have been fairly stable for the past month
because we've had mostly intra-conference play, but today the Big 12 has the
opportunity to improve its already strong #1 position, with 7 teams favored
in the Big 12/SEC Challenge.  Unfortunately, Kansas is not one of those 7 teams
that is favored.  Kentucky is Sagarin's #1 team overall, and West Virginia is
Sagarin's #1 team in Predictor, and Kansas has to play them back-to-back, both
on the road.  And for today's game, Kansas will be without the services of
Carlton Bragg, whose humbling experience earlier this year apparently wasn't
humbling enough.  If it's any consolation, Kentucky is only #21 in Sagarin's
Elo Chess ranking, while Kansas is #12 (Gonzaga is #1), but the rating difference
isn't enough to overcome the home court advantage.

Sagarin makes Kansas a 6.2 point underdog, with just a 23.8 percent probability
of winning the game.  The two teams average 160.2 points, so the suggested final
score is Kansas 77, Kentucky 83.  Kansas has played an average of 0.5 points
above expectation, but Kentucky has played an average of 2.4 points above
expectation, which increases the margin for Kentucky to 8.1 points.  Kansas
is more consistent than Kentucky, but unfortunately, that consistency means the
Jayhawks have played only 2 of their 20 games above expectation by more than 6
points, which is what would be needed to win the game.  That corresponds to a
10 percent probability of winning.  Kentucky has played 4 of their 20 games below
expectation by more than 6 points, corresponding to a 20 percent chance of losing.
Those two average to a 15 percent chance of Kansas winning, even less optimistic
than the probability derived from the Sagarin Predictor ratings.  Both teams have
negative trends, but neither is statistically significant.  Both teams have negative
mental toughness ratings, with the value for Kansas being considerably more
significant than the value for Kentucky.  Taken at face value, the margin for
Kentucky increases to 8.7 points.  The new Sagarin "offense-defense" method puts
the margin at 7.5 points, with a final score of Kansas 81, Kentucky 89.  Kansas
fares better in the Golden Mean and Recent methods, with just 4 point margins for
Kentucky.

Massey makes Kansas a 6.0 point underdog, with just a 30 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 81, Kentucky 87.  Kansas
is ranked higher than Kentucky by Massey, however, but that then suggests the
home court advantage must be more than 6 points, which strikes me as unlikely.

Pomeroy has Kentucky with the better adjusted offense by 1.4 units, as well as the
better adjusted defense by 3.4 units, which combine to an advantage of 4.8 units
for Kentucky.  The average adjusted tempo is 73.1, which translates into a 3.5
point advantage for Kentucky.  But we need to add the home court advantage, which
Sagarin has currently pegged at 3.09 points.  That makes the margin 6.6 points,
and the predicted final score Kansas 75, Kentucky 82.

Greenfield makes Kansas a 7.5 point underdog, with a Vegas implied final score of
Kansas 80, Kentucky 87.5 (you pick the rounding).  Among the key offensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in just two of the eight categories, namely effective
field goal percentage (57.0 to 55.0) and offensive rebound percentage (both are
35.2 percent, so the edge is at the hundredths of a percent level and not really
significant).  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in three
of the seven categories, namely holding opponents to fewer points per game (71.0
to 72.5), more defensive rebounds per game (26.1 to 25.6), and more steals per
game (7.1 to 6.3).

Dunkel gives Kansas a 1 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line has Kansas
as an 8 point underdog, so he is obviously picking Kansas against the spread.  His
total points is 160, suggesting a final score of Kansas 80.5, Kentucky 79.5 (you
pick the roundings).  Meanwhile, Vegas calls for 171 total points, suggesting a
final score of Kansas 81.5, Kentucky 89.5 (again, you pick the roundings).
Recall that Dunkel called the West Virginia game even; he missed on that one,
though the game was closer than the final score indicated, and Kansas did have
the lead with less than 10 minutes to play.

Real Time makes Kansas a 9 point underdog with a final score of Kansas 81,
Kentucky 90.  The probability of Kansas winning is just 31.5 percent.  Real Time
may have finally gotten its act together, as the predictions in the Scouting
link have agreed with those on the schedule for much of the past week, with the
biggest discrepancy being just a single point, which might have been due to rounding.

Collegiate Basketball News still has Baylor at #1 in the RPI, with Villanova still
at #2 despite its loss, Butler moved up to #3, Louisville is #4, Kentucky dropped
to #5 after its loss to Tennessee, and Kansas remained at #6, thanks to Florida State
also losing.  West Virginia is back up to third in the Big 12 at #31, and TCU is #37.
Seven Big 12 teams should be dancing, based on the latest RPI.

Dolphin makes Kansas a 7.1 point underdog with a 28.4 percent probability of winning,
and a final score of Kansas 80, Kentucky 87.

Don Davis' January 26 email makes Kansas a 7.7 point underdog, with just a 16.5 percent
probability of wininng (that lower percentage suggests that he also takes into account
the consistency with which Kansas has been playing), and a final score of Kansas 76,
Kentucky 84.

Colley makes Kansas a 2.1 point underdog using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.  He
has Kansas ranked slightly higher, but the rating difference isn't enough to
offset the home court advantage.

Whitlock makes Kansas a 6.2 point underdog using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.  In fact, his
prediction matches Sagarin Predictor down to a hundredth of a point.

The new and improved BPI makes Kansas a 6.3 point underdog, with just a 29.5 percent
probability of winning.

The LRMC has Kansas ranked #9.  Kentucky replaced West Virginia at #3 after West
Virginia was elevated to #1 following Tuesday's win over Kansas.

Seven Overtimes makes Kansas a 6.0 point underdog with a 29 percent probability of
winning the game.  The suggested final score is Kansas 77, Kentucky 83.

Crotistics makes Kansas an 8.8 point underdog.  Did I miss editing this one for the
West Virginia game?

There are no common opponents.

Players to watch:  Guard Isaiah Briscoe plays the most minutes and commits the most
turnovers, but that's it; guard Malik Monk scores the most points; forward Edrice
Adebayo grabs the most rebounds and blocks the most shots; guard De'Aaron Fox dishes
the most assists and is their leading thief; forward Wenyen Gabriel commits the most
personal fouls; reserve guard Mychal Mulder sat out the last game with an unspecified
illness and is expected to remain out for a ten-day period.

So, the various prognostications range from a 1 point win (Dunkel) to a 9 point loss
(Real Time).  The average is 6.4 points in favor of the Wildcats, suggesting a final
score of Kansas 77, Kentucky 83.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  8   # 15   #  8   #  7   #  7   +0.5    6.5   -0.06 +/- 0.26   -0.28 +/- 0.15
Kentucky       #  1   # 27   #  2   #  1   #  3   +2.4   10.4   -0.13 +/- 0.41   -0.09 +/- 0.26
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  3  #  4   #  9   # 15   #  6  #  2    #  5    #  2   # 35   #  6   # 33
Kentucky       #  6  # 11   #  2   # 25   #  1  #  5    #  2    #  5   # 17   #  5   # 14
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  4   #  4   # 10   #  5   #  6   #  3   #  4   1.037   18-2     #     #   
Kentucky       # 12   # 12   #  3   #  8   #  5   # 10   #  8   1.044   17-3     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  5  # 28    #  9  # 13    #  9  # 23    #  9  #  4    #  3  #  3    # 10  # 35
Kentucky       #  9  # 13    #  1  # 16    #  7  # 46    #  3  # 16    #  2  #  7    #  1  # 17

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 25 Indiana                     99 103    +5.37    -9.37
NEUT   #  9 Duke                        77  75    +0.27    +1.73
HOME   #185 Siena                       86  65   +24.97    -3.97
HOME   #129 UAB                         83  63   +21.12    -1.12
HOME   # 53 Georgia                     65  54   +13.08    -2.08
HOME   #128 NC Asheville                95  57   +21.07   +16.93
HOME   #216 Long Beach State            91  61   +27.07    +2.93
HOME   # 91 Stanford                    89  74   +17.61    -2.61
HOME   #263 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +29.91   +13.09
HOME   # 90 Nebraska                    89  72   +17.59    -0.59
HOME   # 80 Davidson                    89  71   +16.99    +1.01
AWAY   #189 UNLV                        71  53   +18.96    -0.96
AWAY   # 37 TCU                         86  80    +4.59    +1.41
HOME   # 31 Kansas State                90  88    +9.79    -7.79
HOME   # 38 Texas Tech                  85  68   +11.03    +5.97
AWAY   # 56 Oklahoma                    81  70    +7.14    +3.86
HOME   # 26 Oklahoma State              87  80    +8.57    -1.57
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                  76  72    +0.03    +3.97
HOME   # 59 Texas                       79  67   +13.83    -1.83
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia               69  85    -6.36    -9.64
AWAY   #  2 Kentucky                              -6.21             0.238
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +4.36             0.712
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                            +6.21             0.730
AWAY   # 31 Kansas State                          +3.61             0.699
AWAY   # 38 Texas Tech                            +4.85             0.734
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                         -0.18             0.493
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                -1.82             0.408
HOME   # 37 TCU                                  +10.77             0.939
AWAY   # 59 Texas                                 +7.65             0.791
HOME   # 56 Oklahoma                             +13.32             0.939
AWAY   # 26 Oklahoma State                        +2.39             0.588

Here is Kentucky's season to date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #220 Stephen F. Austin           87  64   +30.53    -7.53
HOME   #166 Canisius                    93  69   +27.02    -3.02
NEUT   # 42 Michigan State              69  48   +11.88    +9.12
HOME   #205 Duquesne                    93  59   +29.59    +4.41
HOME   #235 Cleveland State            101  70   +31.22    -0.22
HOME   #210 Tennessee-Martin           111  76   +30.05    +4.95
NEUT   #105 Arizona State              115  69   +19.56   +26.44
HOME   # 16 UCLA                        92  97    +9.14   -14.14
HOME   # 76 Valparaiso                  87  63   +19.82    +4.18
NEUT   #182 Hofstra                     96  73   +24.84    -1.84
NEUT   #  3 North Carolina             103 100    +0.86    +2.14
AWAY   #  4 Louisville                  70  73    -1.59    -1.41
AWAY   # 82 Mississippi                 99  76   +14.12    +8.88
HOME   # 61 Texas A&M                  100  58   +17.11   +24.89
HOME   # 43 Arkansas                    97  71   +14.98   +11.02
AWAY   # 64 Vanderbilt                  87  81   +11.54    -5.54
HOME   # 81 Auburn                      92  72   +20.17    -0.17
AWAY   # 77 Mississippi State           88  81   +13.73    -6.73
HOME   # 28 South Carolina              85  69   +11.85    +4.15
AWAY   # 55 Tennessee                   80  82   +10.16   -12.16
HOME   #  8 Kansas                                +6.21             0.762