Big 12 projection, Round 8

TCU lost to Oklahoma State, and by a fair bit more than expected, which caused
the Horned Frogs to slip behind both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State into eighth
place.  Although Texas Tech also lost, their game with Baylor was a lot closer,
and that helped to move them above TCU.  And of course Oklahoma State is the
opponent that beat TCU by that wider-than-expected margin, which improved their
standing by enough to move ahead of TCU, but not quite enough to move ahead of
Texas Tech.  That's the only change in the projected standings for Round 8.

Conference play will now take a brief one-game hiatus for the Big 12/SEC
Challenge.  Seven Big 12 teams are projected to win their games.  The projected
losers are the top team and the two bottom teams.  Kansas State is in a toss-up
contest with Tennessee, who just beat Kentucky.

                      Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  8  Kansas          13.01  13.40  13.60  13.84  14.52  14.52  14.05    7  1  @UK  (Sa)   UK  by  6.2
# 12  Baylor          12.69  12.73  12.17  12.63  12.68  13.27  13.34    7  1  @Mis (Sa)   BU  by  9.6
#  1  West Virginia   13.76  13.84  14.26  14.23  12.95  12.04  12.53    5  3   TAM (Sa)   WVU by 17.3
# 19  Iowa State      10.24  10.29  11.02  10.42   9.79  10.18  10.41    5  3  @Van (Sa)   ISU by  5.3
# 31  Kansas State     6.95   7.43   7.26   6.72   7.62   8.63   8.44    4  4  @Ten (Sa)   KSU by  0.3
# 37  Texas Tech       8.88   8.48   8.78   7.68   8.14   7.10   7.04    3  5   LSU (Sa)   TTU by 14.9
# 27  Oklahoma State   7.17   7.21   6.61   6.53   5.52   6.51   7.00    2  6   Ark (Sa)   OSU by  6.3
# 36  TCU              7.24   7.21   7.72   8.57   8.13   7.49   6.97    3  5   Aub (Sa)   TCU by  9.5
# 56  Oklahoma         4.62   4.11   3.87   4.56   6.01   5.61   5.19    2  6   Fla (Sa)   Fla by  4.6
# 60  Texas            5.44   5.30   4.71   4.82   4.64   4.65   5.03    2  6  @Geo (Sa)   Geo by  4.0

ESPN's BPI took honors for best prognostications in Round 8.  Sagarin retains the
season lead.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Error         1     1                                   1     3           1           1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
UT  over OU      2.5   1.0   2.2   2.5  -1.5   2.5   0.7   2.5   1.9   3.0   2.0   2.5   2.2   2.7   5.6            1     1.5   0.0   1.2   1.5   2.5   1.5   0.3   1.5   0.9   2.0   1.0   1.5   1.2   1.7   4.6      
OSU over TCU     4.4   4.0   4.0   4.0  -3.0   4.0  -2.0   3.5   2.4   4.5   8.0   3.5   3.9   4.4   4.4           13     8.6   9.0   9.0   9.0  16.0   9.0  15.0   9.5  10.6   8.5   5.0   9.5   9.1   8.6   8.6      
WVU over KU      5.6   2.0   4.8   4.0   0.0   4.5  -5.8   6.3   2.3   8.8   2.0   5.8   7.2   7.6   3.5           16    10.4  14.0  11.2  12.0  16.0  11.5  21.8   9.7  13.7   7.2  14.0  10.2   8.8   8.4  12.5      
ISU over KSU     7.0   3.0   3.4   3.5  13.5   5.0   0.2   5.0   2.9   6.5  -2.0   5.9   7.3   7.7   2.7            5     2.0   2.0   1.6   1.5   8.5   0.0   4.8   0.0   2.1   1.5   7.0   0.9   2.3   2.7   2.3      
BU  over TTU    10.3  14.0  12.4   9.0   5.0  10.5  16.4  10.2  12.2  10.1   7.0  10.9  11.0  11.4  12.6            4     6.3  10.0   8.4   5.0   1.0   6.5  12.4   6.2   8.2   6.1   3.0   6.9   7.0   7.4   8.6      

total this round                                                                                                         28.8  35.0  31.4  29.0  44.0  28.5  54.3  26.9  35.5  25.3  30.0  29.0  28.4  28.8  36.6      
previous total                                                                                                          250.9 254.0 254.1 252.5 297.0 252.0 305.5 265.6 259.6  52.9 275.0 279.3 279.8 284.6 279.3      
cumulative                                                                                                              279.7 289.0 285.5 281.5 341.0 280.5 359.8 292.5 295.1  78.2 305.0 308.3 308.2 313.4 315.9      
per game (total of 40)                                                                                                    7.0   7.2   7.1   7.0   8.5   7.0   9.0   7.3   7.4   7.8   7.6   7.7   7.7   7.8   7.9      

No road wins were projected for Round 8, and none happened, but we're still
very close to the long-term average of one road win in three games.  Round 9
will come after a brief hiatus from conference play.

Road wins (14 out of 40)                Home losses                             Differential (RW-HL)
-------------------------------------   -------------------------------------   --------------------
3 Baylor          OU  KSU TCU           0 Baylor                                +3 Baylor        
3 Kansas          TCU OU  ISU           0 Kansas                                +3 Kansas        
2 West Virginia   OSU UT                1 Iowa State      KU                    +1 West Virginia 
2 Iowa State      OSU OU                1 Kansas State    BU                    +1 Iowa State    
1 Kansas State    OSU                   1 Texas Tech      OSU                    0 Kansas State  
1 Oklahoma        WVU                   1 West Virginia   OU                    -1 TCU           
1 Oklahoma State  TTU                   2 TCU             KU  BU                -1 Texas Tech    
1 TCU             UT                    2 Texas           TCU WVU               -2 Oklahoma      
0 Texas                                 3 Oklahoma        BU  KU  ISU           -2 Oklahoma State
0 Texas Tech                            3 Oklahoma State  WVU ISU KSU           -2 Texas         

The inconsistency for Kansas jumped a little, but remains amazingly low.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
West Virginia   +2.32    Kansas            6.36    
TCU             +1.37    Kansas State      7.32    
Oklahoma State  +1.21    TCU               7.39    
Iowa State      +1.05    Texas Tech        8.81    
Baylor          +0.94    Baylor            8.89    
Kansas State    +0.79    Oklahoma         10.29    
Kansas          +0.47    Texas            11.67    
Texas Tech      +0.37    Iowa State       12.74    
Oklahoma        -0.71    West Virginia    13.12    
Texas           -1.03    Oklahoma State   13.77    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas           +0.55 +/- 0.45    Kansas State    +0.29 +/- 0.12
Kansas State    +0.41 +/- 0.27    Baylor          +0.21 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma        +0.11 +/- 0.44    Texas           +0.19 +/- 0.25
Oklahoma State  +0.02 +/- 0.59    Oklahoma        +0.01 +/- 0.21
Kansas          -0.07 +/- 0.25    Oklahoma State  -0.05 +/- 0.24
Baylor          -0.13 +/- 0.38    West Virginia   -0.09 +/- 0.23
TCU             -0.25 +/- 0.31    Texas Tech      -0.15 +/- 0.14
Texas Tech      -0.29 +/- 0.34    Iowa State      -0.23 +/- 0.23
Iowa State      -0.50 +/- 0.54    Kansas          -0.27 +/- 0.14
West Virginia   -0.67 +/- 0.50    TCU             -0.29 +/- 0.13

Everybody is now in the top 100 in strength of schedule.  Seven teams
are in the top 10 percent of Division I.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
West Virginia   87.30   Baylor          61.68   Oklahoma State  166.00   West Virginia   +21.60   
Oklahoma State  86.95   Kansas State    65.30   Kansas          155.60   Kansas          +12.00   
Kansas          83.80   West Virginia   65.70   West Virginia   153.00   Iowa State      +11.84   
Iowa State      80.58   Texas Tech      66.15   Oklahoma        152.53   Baylor          +10.95   
Oklahoma        76.58   TCU             68.21   Iowa State      149.32   Kansas State    +10.00   
Texas Tech      75.50   Iowa State      68.74   TCU             143.00   Texas Tech       +9.35   
Kansas State    75.30   Texas           69.90   Texas Tech      141.65   Oklahoma State   +7.89   
TCU             74.79   Kansas          71.80   Kansas State    140.60   TCU              +6.58   
Baylor          72.63   Oklahoma        75.95   Texas           139.40   Oklahoma         +0.63   
Texas           69.50   Oklahoma State  79.05   Baylor          134.32   Texas            -0.40   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma State  81.09 ( 1)
Oklahoma        80.26 ( 4)
Baylor          79.94 ( 7)
Texas           79.39 (10)
Iowa State      78.58 (13)
Kansas          78.53 (14)
TCU             77.85 (24)
West Virginia   74.76 (64)
Kansas State    74.15 (71)
Texas Tech      73.32 (91)