Updated Big 12 Predictions - Oh how hard they fall!!

West Virginia opened the season an almost prohibitive favorite to win the Big 12. They had one glaring issue from a statistical probabilistic standpoint that opened the door for Kansas especially more so than Baylor. West Virginia had a huge standard deviation of performance. In other words, the confidence interval around their high rating was small. They had a proclivity to have very bad games. That reality has come to bite them big time. They opened the season with greater than a 91% probability of winning the Big 12 but a low confidence interval. After 7 games, their probability of winning the Big 12 has fallen to 16%. Kansas, on the other hand, has the 3rd best confidence interval in all of D-1. We are not blowing anyone away but we continue to perform very consistently. Kansas' probability of winning the Big 12 has risen to 70.4%. But wait just a second. While all of these probabilities include the reality of the schedule which is back-end loaded for Kansas, we must be cautious because the next 8 games represent the toughest stretch for KU. What happened to West Virginia is not as likley to happen to Kansas because of the confidence rating but this is, after all, a game played by young men. So I like our position a lot right about now, but ultimately it only matters what happens on the court.

(I think if you click on the images below they should be a little easier to read)

WVU has committed 3 unforced errors now, and have basically blown their chance at a championship. Losing to Tech and KSU on the road were somewhat bad (you get 4 losses, so you should save those for top teams). Losing at home to OU was huge. If a typical 14 win season (9 home, 5 road) is the path to success, losing at home means that they need to win 6 on the road, and have lost 2 already. That leaves just one road loss left for them and they need to win the rest of their home games. Since they still have to play KU and Baylor on the road, the odds are pretty long against that happening.

As for KU, if you buy into the 9 home + 5 road path to 14, KU has already won 3 road games. With 6 road games to go, we can afford to go 2-4 on the road and, as long as we win our home games, still get to 14 and a probable championship.

Granted, this is just based on history. If Baylor wins out, they could still potentially go 17-1 and we'd need to match that effort. Lots of work left, but if history is a predictor of the future, WVU has backed themselves into a corner, and KU looks pretty good.

As you said "Granted, this is just based on history. If Baylor wins out, they could still potentially go 17-1 and we'd need to match that effort. Lots of work left, but if history is a predictor of the future, WVU has backed themselves into a corner, and KU looks pretty good." which makes this next game so dangerous. WVU knows they need this win. We know if we lose it is not the end of the world. This can be problematic from an intensity stand point. I sure hope the guys are up to the challenge.