predictions for Texas game

Damn.  Another early tip.  I can't help but think that Texas will be out
for a little revenge, given what our football team did to theirs.  Smart
is smart enough to use such a motivational tool.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 14.7 point margin, with a 93.1 percent probability
of winning the game.  The two teams average 146.9 points, so the suggested
final score is Kansas 81, Texas 66.  Kansas has played an average of 0.7
points above expectation, while Texas has played an average of 1.2 points
below expectation, which raises the margin for Kansas to 16.6 points.  And
let's not forget that historically the home court advantage in the Big 12
has been a bit larger than the national average, so the margin could be
as large as 17.1 points.  Kansas still hasn't played a single game more
than 10 points below expectation, so that suggests a 0 percent chance of
losing.  Meanwhile, Texas is over 6 points per game less consistent than
Kansas, and has played 2 of their 18 games by more than 15 points above
expectation, corresponding to an 11 percent chance of winning.  Those two
average to just a 5.6 percent chance of Kansas losing the game, a bit more
optimistic than the 6.9 percent chance of losing derived from the Sagarin
Predictor ratings.  Where things get interesting are in the trend and
mental toughness statistics.  Texas was so dreadful at the beginning of
the season (4 below expectation games out of their first 5) that the
Longhorns have the conference's best trend, while the weakly positive
trend for Kansas isn't statistically significant.  And Texas also has a
positive mental toughness rating, which suggests that they play well
against strong opponents (above expectation against 5 out of 6 conference
opponents, but not by enough to win today's game).  Taken at face value,
the margin for Kansas drops to 13.5 points.  Interestingly, the Sagarin
Predictor rating is the most pessimistic of Sagarin's various rating
methods, with Overall at 15.8 points, Golden Mean at 17.6 points, Recent
at 18.4 points, Elo Chess at 23.8 points, Blue at 16.5 points, and the
new Sagarin "offense-defense" method at 16.4 points, with a final score
of Kansas 81, Texas 65.

Massey gives Kansas a 19.0 point margin, with a 95 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 82, Texas 63.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 18.8 units, but
Texas has the better adjusted defense by 0.3 units, which combine to an
advantage of 18.5 units for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is 70.3,
which translates into a 13.0 point advantage for Kansas.  But we need to
add the home court advantage, which Sagarin has currently pegged at 3.1
points.  That makes the margin 16.1 points, and the predicted final score
Kansas 81, Texas 64, with the rounding working in the Jayhawks' favor.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 16.5 point margin, with a Vegas implied final
score of Kansas 83, Texas 66.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has
the advantage in seven of the eight categories; Texas attempts more free
throws per field goal attempt.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has
the advantage in five of the seven categories; Texas holds opponents to
fewer points per game and commits fewer personal fouls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a whopping 26.0 point margin, and he claims that a
Vegas line has Kansas as a 17.0 point favorite, so he is obviously picking
Kansas against the spread.  His total points is 154, suggesting a final
score of Kansas 90, Texas 64.  Meanwhile, Vegas calls for 148.5 total
points, suggesting a final score of Kansas 83, Texas 66.

Real Time gives Kansas a whopping 28 point margin with a final score of
Kansas 87, Texas 59.  But if you click on the Scouting link, Kansas has
only a 16 point margin, the probability of winning is 81.5 percent, and
the final score is Kansas 90, Texas 74.

Collegiate Basketball News has Villanova back at #1, with Baylor dropping
to #2, Butler is #3, and Kansas is #4.  TCU is back in third place among
Big 12 teams at #25, and West Virginia dropped to #40.  Kansas State is
#48, Texas Tech is #51, Iowa State is #54, and Oklahoma State is #67, so
if you went with just the top 68 teams in RPI, eight conference members
would be dancing in March.  But the Cowboys need to start winning some
games, or they'll soon drop out of the top 68.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 14.5 point margin with an 89.2 percent probability
of winning, with a final score of Kansas 80, Texas 66.

Don Davis' January 7 email gives Kansas a 16.1 point margin, a 99.6 percent
probability of wininng, and a final score of Kansas 81.5 (you pick the
rounding), Texas 65.

Colley gives Kansas a 23.4 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 17.0 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

The new and "improved" BPI gives Kansas a 19.9 point margin, and a 95.2
percent probability of winning.  I used quotation marks around "improved"
because the conference record projection for Kansas was 14-3, despite the
fact that the Big 12 plays 18 conference games.  I did send feedback to
ESPN, and they have now fixed the problem.  The projected conference
record for Kansas is now 14.6 wins and 3.4 losses, which totals to 18
games.  I had 14.5 wins after Wednesday's Sagarin ratings were released.

The LRMC has Kansas ranked #8.  West Virginia is still #1.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 13.0 point margin with an 89 percent probability
of winning the game.  The suggested final score is Kansas 80, Texas 67.  By the
way, Seven Overtimes also has Kansas State beating West Virginia by 4, Oklahoma
beating Iowa State by 5, and TCU beating Baylor by 2.  Wouldn't that be sweet?
They're the next three in the projected standings.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 17.0 point margin.

There are six common opponents, two non-conference (Long Beach State and UAB),
and four conference:

KU  +30 LBS at home (+26 neutral court)
UT   +6 LBS at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU  +28 UT  at home (+24 neutral court)

KU  +20 UAB at home (+16 neutral court)
UT  +36 UAB at home (+32 neutral court)
KU  -12 UT  at home (-16 neutral court)

KU   +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
UT   -3 KSU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU   +1 UT  at home ( -3 neutral court)

KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
UT   +3 OSU at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU   +8 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)

KU   +4 ISU on road ( +8 neutral court)
UT   -9 ISU on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU  +17 UT  at home (+13 neutral court)

KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)
UT   -3 TCU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU  +21 UT  at home (+17 neutral court)

The average is just 10.5 points in favor of Kansas, with 5 out of 6 calling
for a Kansas victory.

Players to watch:  Guard Tevin Mack plays the most minutes and scores the most
points, but he has been suspended indefinitely for violating team rules.
However, we found that the indefinite suspension of Grayson Allen lasted all
of a single game, and when Woodard wasn't expected to play against Kansas, he
played anyway, so it's really hard to know what to expect in this particular
case.  If Mack plays, I'd go with a smaller margin; if Mack doesn't play, I'd
go with a larger margin.  Forward Jarrett Allen grabs the most rebounds and
blocks the most shots, but he also commits the most turnovers.  Guard Kerwin
Roach Jr. dishes the most assists and is their leading thief, but he also
commits the most personal fouls.

So, the various prognostications range from a 10.5 point win (common opponents)
to a 28 point win (Real Time), with the average being 17.4 points, suggesting a
final score of Kansas 82, Texas 65.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   # 18   #  7   #  5   #  4   +0.7    6.3   +0.13 +/- 0.30   -0.19 +/- 0.17
Texas          # 65   # 10   # 60   # 71   # 84   -1.2   12.6   +0.71 +/- 0.56   +0.22 +/- 0.20
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  3  #  5   #  7   # 16   #  5  #  9    #  5    #  2   # 32   #  4   # 30
Texas          #113  # 27   # 75   # 17   # 62  # 31    # 88    #159   # 19   #156   # 29
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  4   #  4   #  8   #  3   #  4   #  2   #  4   0.983   17-1     #     #   
Texas          #141   #141   # 66   #187   #156   #159   #132   0.668    7-11    #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  3  # 25    #  4  # 14    #  6  # 31    #  8  #  4    #  1  #  6    #  9  # 25
Texas          #151  # 28    # 86  # 12    # 78  # 14    # 67  # 20    #127  # 20    #116  # 18

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 24 Indiana                     99 103    +4.66    -8.66
NEUT   #  9 Duke                        77  75    +0.18    +1.82
HOME   #182 Siena                       86  65   +25.53    -4.53
HOME   #125 UAB                         83  63   +21.43    -1.43
HOME   # 47 Georgia                     65  54   +12.64    -1.64
HOME   #134 NC Asheville                95  57   +21.98   +16.02
HOME   #224 Long Beach State            91  61   +27.97    +2.03
HOME   # 88 Stanford                    89  74   +18.09    -3.09
HOME   #262 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +30.52   +12.48
HOME   # 81 Nebraska                    89  72   +17.76    -0.76
HOME   # 80 Davidson                    89  71   +17.62    +0.38
AWAY   #185 UNLV                        71  53   +19.54    -1.54
AWAY   # 30 TCU                         86  80    +4.31    +1.69
HOME   # 35 Kansas State                90  88   +11.06    -9.06
HOME   # 32 Texas Tech                  85  68   +10.66    +6.34
AWAY   # 54 Oklahoma                    81  70    +7.85    +3.15
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma State              87  80   +10.65    -3.65
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                  76  72    +0.52    +3.48
HOME   # 60 Texas                                +14.74             0.931
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia                         -5.81             0.289
AWAY   #  1 Kentucky                              -6.05             0.252
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +5.04             0.740
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                            +6.72             0.739
AWAY   # 35 Kansas State                          +4.86             0.766
AWAY   # 32 Texas Tech                            +4.46             0.733
HOME   #  2 West Virginia                         +0.39             0.515
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                -1.16             0.441
HOME   # 30 TCU                                  +10.51             0.933
AWAY   # 60 Texas                                 +8.54             0.805
HOME   # 54 Oklahoma                             +14.05             0.943
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma State                        +4.45             0.665

Here is Texas' season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #309 Incarnate Word              78  73   +22.42   -17.42
HOME   #266 Louisiana-Monroe            80  59   +18.99    +2.01
HOME   #210 Eastern Washington          85  52   +15.50   +17.50
NEUT   # 34 Northwestern                58  77    -3.73   -15.27
NEUT   # 72 Colorado                    54  68    +1.48   -15.48
HOME   # 99 Texas-Arlington             61  72    +7.60   -18.60
HOME   # 64 Alabama                     77  68    +3.54    +5.46
AWAY   # 38 Michigan                    50  53    -6.13    +3.13
HOME   #224 Long Beach State            71  65   +16.33   -10.33
NEUT   # 46 Arkansas                    74  77    -2.26    -0.74
HOME   #125 UAB                         96  60    +9.79   +26.21
HOME   #158 Kent State                  58  63   +12.40   -17.40
AWAY   # 35 Kansas State                62  65    -6.78    +3.78
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma State              82  79    -0.99    +3.99
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                  70  79   -11.12    +2.12
HOME   # 30 TCU                         61  64    -1.13    -1.87
HOME   #  2 West Virginia               72  74   -11.25    +9.25
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                      64  74   -12.80    +2.80
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                               -14.74             0.069
HOME   # 54 Oklahoma                              +2.41             0.581
AWAY   # 47 Georgia                               -5.20             0.290
HOME   # 32 Texas Tech                            -0.98             0.463
AWAY   # 30 TCU                                   -7.33             0.240
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                            -4.92             0.353
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma State                        -7.19             0.289
AWAY   # 54 Oklahoma                              -3.79             0.373
HOME   # 35 Kansas State                          -0.58             0.477
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia                        -17.45             0.089
HOME   #  7 Kansas                                -8.54             0.195
AWAY   # 32 Texas Tech                            -7.18             0.247
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                -6.60             0.273