Updated Big 12 Projections (through tonight's games)

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CorpusJayhawk
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7 years 10 months ago #10489 by CorpusJayhawk

This was a key win. This draws us much closer to West Virginia. Obviously there will be movement over the next two nights as the other 8 teams play their 6th game. But I am impatient and wanted to see what this win did to our probability.

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!

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konza63
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c'85 Towering toward the Blue

7 years 10 months ago #10493 by konza63

Looking forward a bit:

If we can pocket all home wins, including big ones vs WVU and Baylor...and if we go down in Morgantown (per the projections) and potentially Waco (despite our pretty solid past performances there, when we needed big wins)...then I think the really pivotal games for #13 will be at KSU and at OSU (to close the season). Both will be pitched battles, given that both played us to almost a draw at Allen and both fan bases despise KU. Not only that, but their two coaches (current KSU guy and a former KSU player) probably have that game as Pri 1 on their calendars.

Hold serve at home and win all road games except WVU and Baylor and we "should" be in great position to either win the title outright or share it.

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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NotOstertag
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7 years 10 months ago #10510 by NotOstertag

I like how KU's trendline is going in a consistent direction, while the others are more yo-yo rides with recent downward arcs.

Here's how I'm looking at things: 14 games is the magic number. In almost all cases, 14 wins gets you a title in our conference.

We have to count on winning 9 games at home. We've got 3 in the bank. We need 6 more. For every game we lose at home, we'd need to pick up an "extra" on the road, which is no easy feat.

We only need to win 4 1/2 games on the road, which we can round up to 5. With that being said, we need to pick up 2 more wins in hostile gyms to put ourselves in a VERY good position.

So not to count any chickens here, but beating ISU was a big deal last night since they're statistically the 4th best team in the league, and statistically they'll be the toughest gym outside of Baylor or WVU to win at this year. Note I say "statistically" since KSU will always play us tough, we've had trouble winning at OSU, and everybody is going to be gunning for us.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot

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