predictions for Iowa State game

Now things get interesting.  With the exception of Saturday's home game
with Texas, Kansas has their next ten games with predicted margins of
fewer than 7 points and four projected losses.  Today's Big Monday affair
is close to being a fifth projected loss.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 0.2 point margin, with a 50.7 percent probability
of winning the game.  The two teams average 152.6 points, so the suggested
"final" score is Kansas 76, Iowa State 76, or in other words, overtime.
Kansas has played an average of 0.7 points above expectation, but Iowa
State has played an average of 1.3 points above expectation, which tilts
things in favor of Iowa State by 0.4 points.  Kansas is by far the more
consistent of the two teams, but consistency doesn't help much in a 
toss-up game.  The Jayhawks have played 9 of their 17 games below
expectation by more than 0.2 points, making it a 52.9 percent chance of
losing the game.  Meanwhile, Iowa State has played 7 of their 16 games
above expectation by more than 0.2 points, giving them a 43.8 percent
chance of winning.  Those average to a 48.3 percent chance of Kansas
losing, which isn't quite as pessimistic as the 49.3 percent chance of
losing derived from the Sagarin Predictor ratings.  Kansas has a positive
trend while Iowa State has a negative trend, though neither is statistically
significant.  I suspect that Iowa State's negative trend is largely due to
the 34 points played above expectation against The Citadel in their third
game of the season; their last 7 games have all been played within 10 points
of expectation, so not much of a trend.  Both teams have negative mental
toughness values.  Taken at face value, the margin for Kansas is 1.1 points.
The new Sagarin "offense-defense" method puts the margin for Kansas at just
0.01 points, with a "final" score of Kansas 76, Iowa State 76, or in other
words, once again an overtime prediction.

Massey gives Kansas a 4.0 point margin, with a 62 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 78, Iowa State 74.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 7.4 units, but Iowa
State has the better adjusted defense by 0.2 units, which combine to an
advantage of 7.2 units for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is 70.6,
which translates into a 5.1 point advantage for Kansas.  But we need to
subtract the home court advantage, which Sagarin has currently pegged at
3.1 points.  That makes the margin 2.0 points, and the predicted final score
Kansas 75, Iowa State 73.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 2.0 point margin, with a Vegas implied final
score of Kansas 78, Iowa State 76.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas
has the advantage in seven of the eight categories; Iowa State has a smaller
turnover percentage.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in just three of the seven categories, namely a lower opponent effective
field goal percentage, more offensive rebounds per game, and more blocked
shots per game.

Dunkel makes Kansas a 7.0 point underdog, and he claims that a Vegas line
has Kansas as a 2.0 point favorite, so he is obviously picking Iowa State
both in the game and against the spread.  His total points is 148, suggesting
a final score of Kansas 70.5, Iowa State 77.5 (you pick the roundings).
Meanwhile, Vegas calls for 154.0 total points, suggesting a final score of
Kansas 78, Iowa State 76.  Go Vegas!

Real Time makes Kansas a 4 point underdog with a final score of Kansas 80,
Iowa State 84.  But if you click on the Scouting link, Kansas is only a
1 point underdog, the probability of winning is 46.9 percent, and the
final score is Kansas 79, Iowa State 80.

Collegiate Basketball News has Baylor as the new #1 in the RPI, despite
their loss to West Virginia, with Villanova at #2, Florida at #3, and
Kansas at #4, while West Virginia stayed at #23, despite the win over
Baylor.  TCU is #25, Iowa State is #47, Oklahoma State is #52, Kansas State
is #54, and Texas Tech is down at #61.  If you went with just the top 68
teams in RPI, eight conference members would be dancing in March.

Dolphin makes Kansas a 0.1 point underdog with a 49.7 percent probability of
winning, with a final score of Kansas 75, Iowa State 75, or in other words,
overtime.

Don Davis' January 7 email gives Kansas a 0.1 point margin, a 50.8 percent
probability of wininng, and a "final" score of Kansas 75, Iowa State 75.
Yet another overtime prediction.

Colley gives Kansas an 8.1 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.
With Iowa State way down at #52 in his rankings, it's clear that Colley
doesn't think that highly of the Cyclones.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 3.3 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

The new and improved BPI still isn't up.

The LRMC is on board for this season!  I wasn't expecting to see it until
the tournament.

If Colley's ranking indicates that he doesn't respect the Cyclones, Seven
Overtimes REALLY doesn't respect the Cyclones, who are down at #93.  Thus
Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 4.0 point margin with a 67 percent probability
of winning the game.  The suggested final score is Kansas 78, Iowa State 74.

Crotistics makes Kansas a 0.6 point underdog.

There are three common opponents:

KU  +17 TTU at home (+13 neutral court)
ISU  +7 TTU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU   +6 ISU on road (+10 neutral court)

KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
ISU +10 OSU on road (+14 neutral court)
KU  -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court)

KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)
ISU  -7 TCU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU   +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)

The Texas Tech and TCU advantages for Kansas are excatly canceled out by
the Oklahoma State disadvantage, so the common opponents are also calling
for a toss-up game.

Players to watch:  Guard Monte Morris plays the most minutes and dishes the most
assists; guard Nazareth Mitrou-Long scores the most points; guard Deonte Burton
grabs the most rebounds, blocks the most shots, and is their leading thief,
while are also committing the most turnovers and the most personal fouls.  It's
a three guard show for Iowa State.  Gee, that sounds familiar.

So, the various prognostications range from an 8 point win (Colley) to a 7 point
loss (Dunkel), with the average being 0.9 points, suggesting a final score of
Kansas 77, Iowa State 76.  Nail-biter time.  And if overtime transpires, as
several of the prognostications indicate, another 5 minutes of playing time
would tend to add 9.5 points to each team's scoring.  Could last season's
triple overtime thriller in Norman occur in Ames this season?  That could make
it Kansas 105, Iowa State 104.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   # 24   #  7   #  5   #  5   +0.7    6.5   +0.08 +/- 0.33   -0.27 +/- 0.18
Iowa State     # 20   # 27   # 17   # 22   # 22   +1.3   13.9   -0.61 +/- 0.76   -0.18 +/- 0.26
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  3  # 12   #  7   # 22   #  4  # 13    #  6    #  2   # 28   #  4   # 24
Iowa State     # 28  # 20   # 23   # 36   # 21  # 14    # 27    # 35   # 55   # 47   # 61
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  4   #  4   #  7   #  3   #  4   #  2   #  4   0.898   16-1     #     #   
Iowa State     # 32   # 31   # 20   # 52   # 47   # 30   # 30   0.968   11-5     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  3  # 25    #  5  # 12    #     #       #  7  #  6    #  1  #  6    # 10  # 32
Iowa State     # 52  # 46    # 24  # 35    #     #       # 20  # 41    # 93  # 68    # 23  # 35

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 24 Indiana                     99 103    +4.37    -8.37
NEUT   #  8 Duke                        77  75    +0.06    +1.94
HOME   #183 Siena                       86  65   +25.17    -4.17
HOME   #123 UAB                         83  63   +21.02    -1.02
HOME   # 45 Georgia                     65  54   +12.58    -1.58
HOME   #134 NC Asheville                95  57   +21.90   +16.10
HOME   #221 Long Beach State            91  61   +27.70    +2.30
HOME   # 91 Stanford                    89  74   +18.18    -3.18
HOME   #262 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +30.35   +12.65
HOME   # 82 Nebraska                    89  72   +17.59    -0.59
HOME   # 79 Davidson                    89  71   +17.07    +0.93
AWAY   #184 UNLV                        71  53   +19.03    -1.03
AWAY   # 32 TCU                         86  80    +4.00    +2.00
HOME   # 36 Kansas State                90  88   +11.32    -9.32
HOME   # 33 Texas Tech                  85  68   +10.70    +6.30
AWAY   # 63 Oklahoma                    81  70    +8.71    +2.29
HOME   # 28 Oklahoma State              87  80    +9.79    -2.79
AWAY   # 17 Iowa State                            +0.19             0.507
HOME   # 60 Texas                                +14.69             0.925
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia                         -6.82             0.251
AWAY   #  2 Kentucky                              -6.39             0.241
HOME   # 11 Baylor                                +4.82             0.733
HOME   # 17 Iowa State                            +6.45             0.724
AWAY   # 36 Kansas State                          +5.06             0.778
AWAY   # 33 Texas Tech                            +4.44             0.726
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                         -0.56             0.478
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                                -1.44             0.426
HOME   # 32 TCU                                  +10.26             0.924
AWAY   # 60 Texas                                 +8.43             0.795
HOME   # 63 Oklahoma                             +14.97             0.963
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma State                        +3.53             0.632

Here is Iowa State's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #342 Savannah State             113  71   +36.32    +5.68
HOME   #224 Mount St. Mary's            73  55   +24.59    -6.59
HOME   #321 The Citadel                130  63   +32.61   +34.39
NEUT   #168 Indiana State               73  71   +17.87   -15.87
NEUT   # 27 Miami-Florida               73  56    +3.09   +13.91
NEUT   #  4 Gonzaga                     71  73    -3.78    +1.78
HOME   # 16 Cincinnati                  54  55    +2.89    -3.89
HOME   #181 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           91  47   +21.75   +22.25
AWAY   # 77 Iowa                        64  78    +7.33   -21.33
AWAY   #235 Drake                       97  80   +19.03    -2.03
HOME   #344 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)      88  60   +37.08    -9.08
HOME   # 33 Texas Tech                  63  56    +7.38    -0.38
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                      63  65    -4.76    +2.76
HOME   # 60 Texas                       79  70   +11.37    -2.37
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma State              96  86    +0.21    +9.79
AWAY   # 32 TCU                         77  84    +0.68    -7.68
HOME   #  7 Kansas                                -0.19             0.493
AWAY   # 63 Oklahoma                              +5.39             0.672
HOME   # 36 Kansas State                          +8.00             0.768
AWAY   # 68 Vanderbilt                            +5.99             0.691
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                         -3.88             0.386
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                                -6.45             0.276
AWAY   # 60 Texas                                 +5.11             0.648
HOME   # 63 Oklahoma                             +11.65             0.832
AWAY   # 36 Kansas State                          +1.74             0.563
HOME   # 32 TCU                                   +6.94             0.731
AWAY   # 33 Texas Tech                            +1.12             0.539
HOME   # 11 Baylor                                +1.50             0.551
HOME   # 28 Oklahoma State                        +6.47             0.683
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia                        -10.14             0.224