Big 12 projection, Round 5

Texas Tech had been projected to win on the road, while TCU had been projected
to lose at home.  Neither happened, so the two teams swapped places in the
projected standings, but if Texas Tech wins the head-to-head in Round 6, they
could be right back in the upper division.

In Round 5, four of the five favorites were on the road.  By contrast, four of
the five favorites are at home in Round 6.  The Kansas margin is actually 0.04
points.  After performance is taken into account, the sign flips into the
Cyclones' favor, but after trend is taken into account, the sign flips back
into the Jayhawks' favor.  Critical game in the quest for #13.  And it's the
only game between upper division teams in Round 6.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  1  West Virginia   14.20  14.75  13.76  13.84  14.26  14.23    4  1   OU  (We)   WVU by 18.7
#  7  Kansas          13.34  13.49  13.01  13.40  13.60  13.84    5  0  @ISU (Mo)   KU  by  0.0   road win
# 11  Baylor          11.51  12.36  12.69  12.73  12.17  12.63    4  1   UT  (Tu)   BU  by 13.1
# 17  Iowa State       9.97  10.34  10.24  10.29  11.02  10.42    3  2   KU  (Mo)
# 31  TCU              7.42   7.25   7.24   7.21   7.72   8.57    3  2  @TTU (We)
# 33  Texas Tech       8.00   7.73   8.88   8.48   8.78   7.68    2  3   TCU (We)   TTU by  2.7
# 35  Kansas State     6.26   6.38   6.95   7.43   7.26   6.72    2  3  @OSU (We)
# 29  Oklahoma State   8.55   7.97   7.17   7.21   6.61   6.53    0  5   KSU (We)   OSU by  4.7
# 60  Texas            5.04   4.85   5.44   5.30   4.71   4.82    1  4  @BU  (Tu)              
# 63  Oklahoma         5.71   4.88   4.62   4.11   3.87   4.56    1  4  @WVU (We)              

Seven Overtimes took honors for best prognostications in Round 5.  Sagarin retains
the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Error               1                                         2           1           1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
ISU over TCU     1.5   1.0  -0.9  -1.0   2.0  -1.0  -6.3  -0.1  -1.6        -3.0  -3.1   1.2   0.8  -1.1           -7     8.5   8.0   6.1   6.0   9.0   6.0   0.7   6.9   5.4         4.0   3.9   8.2   7.8   5.9      
TTU over OU      2.3   2.0   3.2   0.0  -7.5   0.0   7.3   4.4   4.5         1.0   3.8   4.4   4.0   5.8           -9    11.3  11.0  12.2   9.0   1.5   9.0  16.3  13.4  13.5        10.0  12.8  13.4  13.0  14.8      
BU  over KSU     3.0   2.0   1.6  -2.0  -8.5  -1.5   7.2   2.2   2.8        -5.0   2.8   3.2   2.8   1.0            9     6.0   7.0   7.4  11.0  17.5  10.5   1.8   6.8   6.2        14.0   6.2   5.8   6.2   8.0      
KU  over OSU    10.1  13.0  11.2  13.0   4.0  13.5  15.6  11.2  12.3         9.0   9.2   9.6  10.0  12.1            7     3.1   6.0   4.2   6.0   3.0   6.5   8.6   4.2   5.3         2.0   2.2   2.6   3.0   5.1      
WVU over UT     13.3  13.0  13.1  10.5  16.5  10.0   8.5  15.3  13.5         3.0   9.8  18.1  17.7  12.3            2    11.3  11.0  11.1   8.5  14.5   8.0   6.5  13.3  11.5         1.0   7.8  16.1  15.7  10.3      

total this round                                                                                                         40.2  43.0  41.0  40.5  45.5  40.0  33.9  44.6  41.9        31.0  32.9  46.1  45.7  44.1      
previous total                                                                                                          123.7 129.0 128.3 124.5 165.5 125.0 172.5 129.9 132.4       174.0 149.6 133.4 136.7 149.8      
cumulative                                                                                                              163.9 172.0 169.3 165.0 211.0 165.0 206.4 174.5 174.3       205.0 182.5 179.5 182.4 193.9      
per game (total of 25)                                                                                                    6.6   6.9   6.8   6.6   8.4   6.6   8.3   7.0   7.0         8.2   7.3   7.2   7.3   7.8      

Four road wins were projected in Round 5, but only two occurred.  The
three contenders are now at the top of the differential.  We're now
very close to the one-in-three road wins long-term average.  Only one
road win is projected for Round 6, and that's a toss-up game.

Road wins (8 out of 25)                 Home losses                             Differential (RW-HL)
-------------------------------------   -------------------------------------   --------------------
2 Baylor          OU  KSU               0 Baylor                                +2 Baylor        
2 Kansas          TCU OU                0 Iowa State                            +2 Kansas        
2 West Virginia   OSU UT                0 Kansas                                +2 West Virginia 
1 Iowa State      OSU                   0 Texas Tech                            +1 Iowa State    
1 TCU             UT                    0 West Virginia                          0 TCU           
0 Kansas State                          1 Kansas State    BU                     0 Texas Tech    
0 Oklahoma                              1 TCU             KU                    -1 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                        2 Oklahoma        BU  KU                -2 Oklahoma      
0 Texas                                 2 Oklahoma State  WVU ISU               -2 Oklahoma State
0 Texas Tech                            2 Texas           TCU WVU               -2 Texas         

A hord-fought home loss to West Virginia has the Longhorns at the top of
the conference in trend and mental toughness.  Kansas gets the most
downward trending opponent for the first Big Monday game of the season.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
West Virginia   +3.06    Kansas            6.49    
TCU             +1.92    Kansas State      6.77    
Iowa State      +1.36    TCU               7.81    
Oklahoma State  +1.23    Texas Tech        8.24    
Baylor          +1.15    Baylor            8.89    
Kansas State    +0.75    Oklahoma          9.95    
Kansas          +0.72    West Virginia    12.83    
Texas Tech      +0.66    Texas            12.92    
Oklahoma        -1.04    Oklahoma State   13.35    
Texas           -1.23    Iowa State       13.76    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas           +0.81 +/- 0.63    Texas           +0.21 +/- 0.31
TCU             +0.17 +/- 0.44    Kansas State    +0.20 +/- 0.14
Kansas          +0.09 +/- 0.33    Baylor          +0.14 +/- 0.19
Kansas State    +0.09 +/- 0.35    West Virginia   -0.02 +/- 0.24
Baylor          -0.03 +/- 0.50    Oklahoma State  -0.12 +/- 0.24
Texas Tech      -0.24 +/- 0.42    Oklahoma        -0.16 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma        -0.27 +/- 0.55    Texas Tech      -0.16 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma State  -0.34 +/- 0.74    TCU             -0.18 +/- 0.17
West Virginia   -0.47 +/- 0.64    Iowa State      -0.19 +/- 0.26
Iowa State      -0.61 +/- 0.75    Kansas          -0.26 +/- 0.18

Everybody but Texas Tech is now in the upper half of Division I in strength
of schedule.  Six members are in the top ten percent.  By the way, Nebraska
is #1 in strength of schedule.  Both the Huskers and the Cowboys played
Kansas in Lawrence.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
West Virginia   88.29   Baylor          62.00   Oklahoma State  166.13   West Virginia   +25.06   
Oklahoma State  87.13   Kansas State    63.24   Kansas          156.71   Iowa State      +13.94   
Kansas          85.29   West Virginia   63.24   West Virginia   151.53   Kansas          +13.88   
Iowa State      81.19   Texas Tech      64.94   Oklahoma        148.50   Texas Tech      +12.24   
Texas Tech      77.18   TCU             67.00   Iowa State      148.44   Baylor          +11.81   
TCU             76.31   Iowa State      67.25   TCU             143.31   Kansas State    +11.12   
Oklahoma        74.63   Texas           68.47   Texas Tech      142.12   TCU              +9.31   
Kansas State    74.35   Kansas          71.41   Kansas State    137.59   Oklahoma State   +8.13   
Baylor          73.81   Oklahoma        73.88   Texas           137.47   Oklahoma         +0.75   
Texas           69.00   Oklahoma State  79.00   Baylor          135.81   Texas            +0.53   

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Oklahoma State  80.41 (  2)
Baylor          79.25 (  6)
Oklahoma        78.01 ( 12)
Texas           77.43 ( 19)
Kansas          77.07 ( 26)
Iowa State      76.84 ( 27)
TCU             75.60 ( 40)
West Virginia   71.88 (145)
Kansas State    71.20 (173)
Texas Tech      70.31 (216)