predictions for Oklahoma State game

Long-timers know that I hate these early tips.  I either have to do
without several of the usual prognostications to prepare the summary
the evening before, or cut sleep short to get up extra early to do
the preparation just before tip-off.  The game is at 9:00 a.m. Hawaii
time.  I chose the latter approach this time.  I fully expect to see
some post wondering where I am.

In 16 games, Oklahoma State has soared over the century mark in 5 of
them, scoring over 90 in another 4, leading to conference's second
most potent offense at 87.5 points per game.  Then again, those 100+
point outbursts came against cupcakes.  Problem is, the Cowboys don't
play defense.  They've given up over 100 points once and at least 90
in another 4 games, including their most recent outing with Iowa State,
leading to the conference's most porous defense (by a wide margin) of
78.6 points per game.  Although the Cowboys have had the Jayhawks'
number in Stillwater in recent years, this game is being played in
Lawrence, fortunately.  The Cowboys have had the misfortune of playing
upper division opponents in three of their first four conference games,
with the lone lower division opponent being a road game, which they
lost by 3 points.  But don't let that winless conference record fool
you by lulling you into a false sense of security.  We're talking about
Division I's #28 ranked team, according to Sagarin Predictor.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 10.01 point margin, with an 82.2 percent probability
of winning the game.  The Big 12's top two teams in total points scored are
Oklahoma State and Kansas, which one could expect would lead to a high
scoring game.  The two teams average 161.1 points per game (Oklahoma State
about 10 more than Kansas), so the suggested final score would be
Kansas 86, Oklahoma State 75, with the rounding definitely working in the
Jayhawks' favor.  The Jayhawks are playing an average of 0.8 points above
expectation, while Oklahoma State is playing an average of 1.3 points
above expectation, which decreases the margin to 9.6 points.  Kansas plays
much more consistently than Oklahoma State by over 7 points!  Indeed,
today's game pits the Big 12's most consistent team against the conference's
least consistent team.  Kansas has yet to play a game more than 10 points
below expectation (the Kansas State game was just 9.2 points below
expectation), so one could argue that Kansas has a 0 percent chance of
losing.  However, Oklahoma State has played 4 games more than 10 points
above expectation (3 of those being more than 20 points above expectation),
so the Cowboys would seem to have a 27 percent chance of winning.  Those
average to about a 13 percent chance of Kansas losing the game, somewhat
more optimistic than the 18 percent chance of losing indicated by the
Sagarin Predictor ratings.  Note, however, that Oklahoma State's wild
inconsistency occurred during the non-conference portion of the season.
Since conference play started, they've played all 4 games within 10 points
of expectation.  Kansas has a positive trend while Oklahoma State has a
negative trend, though neither is statistically significant.  Both teams
have negative mental toughness ratings, which works in the Jayhawks' favor.
Taken at face value, the margin would increase to 12.1 points.  The new
Sagarin "offense-defense" method puts the margin at 11.1 points, with a
final score of Kansas 96, Oklahoma State 84.  Kansas slipped to #8 in
Sagarin's new "Blues" rating method and climbed to #7 in the old "Elo
Chess" method, remaining at #4 in the "Combo" rating.

Massey gives Kansas a 13.0 point margin, with an 88 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 93, Oklahoma State 80.
Note that Massey shows a "future" strength of schedule ranking, where Kansas
is #1.  Not unexpected, what with two games against West Virginia, two games
against Baylor, and a road game with Kentucky still on the schedule.

Pomeroy actually has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 3.2 units,
as well as the better adjusted defense by 7.9 units, which combine to an
advantage of 11.1 units for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is 73.0,
which translates into an 8.1 point advantage for Kansas.  But we need to add
the home court advantage, which Sagarin has currently pegged at 3.1 points.
That makes the margin 11.2 points, and the predicted final score Kansas 86,
Oklahoma State 74, with the rounding once again working in the Jayhawks'
favor.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 13.0 point margin, with a Vegas implied final
score of Kansas 92, Oklahoma State 79.  Among the key offensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in five of the eight categories; Oklahoma State
scores more points per game, has a higher offensive rebound percentage,
and attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the key
defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of the seven categories;
Oklahoma State grabs more offensive rebounds per game and steals more balls
per game.  By the way, Greenfield has Kansas State over Baylor by 2.

Dunkel gives Kansas just a 4.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line
is at 13.5 points, so he is picking Oklahoma State against the spread.  His
total points is 163, suggesting a final score of Kansas 83.5, Oklahoma
State 79.5 (you pick the roundings).  Meanwhile, Vegas calls for 174.5 total
points, suggesting a final score of Kansas 94, Oklahoma State 80.5 (you pick
the rounding).

Real Time gives Kansas a 17 point margin and a final score of Kansas 89,
Oklahoma State 72.  But if you click on the Scouting link, Kansas is favored
by a whopping 27 points, the probability of winning is 92.9 percent, and the
final score is Kansas 88, Oklahoma State 61.  The inconsistency in Real Time's
predictions is bizarre.  Then again, Real Time had the most lopsided prediction
for West Virginia hosting Baylor, and it turned out to be the closest of the
bunch.  I'll take a 27 point victory over the Cowboys.

Collegiate Basketball News has Villanova as #1 in the RPI, with Baylor at #2
leading the Big 12.  Kansas is at #4, and West Virginia has finally taken
over 3rd place in the conference at #23, thanks to the big win over Baylor.
TCU dropped to #32.

Dolphin gives Kansas an 11.2 point margin and an 80.6 percent probability of
winning, with a final score of Kansas 84, Oklahoma State 82, with the rounding
once again working in the Jayhawks' favor.

Don Davis' January 7 email gives Kansas a 9.4 point margin, a 93.8 percent
probability of wininng, and a final score of Kansas 86, Oklahoma State 77.

Colley gives Kansas a 15.6 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 12.3 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

The new and improved BPI still isn't up.

The LRMC is on board for this season!  I wasn't expecting to see it until
the tournament.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 9.0 point margin with an 82 percent probability
of winning the game.  The suggested final score is Kansas 85, Oklahoma State 76.
By the way, Seven Overtimes is picking Kansas State over Baylor by 5.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 9.2 point margin.

There are no common opponents (yet).

Players to watch:  Guard Phil Forte (is he STILL around?) plays the most
minutes, but that's it; guard Jawun Evans scores the most points, dishes
the most assists, and is their leading thief, but he also commits the most
turnovers; guard Jeffrey Carroll grabs the most rebounds; forward Mitchell
Solomon blocks the most shots and is tied for most personal fouls with
forward Leyton Hammonds.  Guard Lindy Waters has been fighting neck
soreness and isn't expected to play (but then again, Jordan Woodard wasn't
expected to play in Tuesday's game against Kansas, but did anyway).  Guard
Tavarius Shine has a back injury and is expected to miss the rest of the
season.  Those two combined for an average of 38+ minutes per game, so not
insignificant losses.

So, the various prognostications range from a 27 point win (Real Time Scouting)
to a 4 point win (Dunkel), with the average being 11.9 points, suggesting a
final score of Kansas 86, Oklahoma State 75, with the rounding working in the
Cowboy's favor for a change.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  5   # 26   #  7   #  4   #  4   +0.8    6.7   +0.19 +/- 0.37   -0.24 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma State # 29   #  5   # 28   # 30   # 31   +1.3   13.9   -0.45 +/- 0.86   -0.13 +/- 0.26
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  3  #  9   #  5   # 27   #  4  # 12    #  6    #  3   # 27   #  4   # 24
Oklahoma State # 43  # 17   # 33   #  8   # 37  # 13    # 42    # 70   # 34   # 60   # 31
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  4   #  4   #  8   #  4   #  4   #  2   #  4   0.879   15-1     #     #   
Oklahoma State # 48   # 48   # 36   # 81   # 60   # 53   # 46   0.911   10-6     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  4  # 18    #  5  # 17    #     #       #  7  #  7    #  1  #  6    # 10  # 32
Oklahoma State # 70  # 47    # 49  # 47    #     #       # 36  # 52    # 46  # 17    # 28  #  9

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 24 Indiana                     99 103    +4.61    -8.61
NEUT   #  6 Duke                        77  75    -0.34    +2.34
HOME   #189 Siena                       86  65   +25.93    -4.93
HOME   #132 UAB                         83  63   +21.79    -1.79
HOME   # 47 Georgia                     65  54   +12.99    -1.99
HOME   #135 NC Asheville                95  57   +22.01   +15.99
HOME   #214 Long Beach State            91  61   +27.36    +2.64
HOME   # 93 Stanford                    89  74   +18.47    -3.47
HOME   #258 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +30.16   +12.84
HOME   # 88 Nebraska                    89  72   +17.92    -0.92
HOME   # 81 Davidson                    89  71   +17.51    +0.49
AWAY   #180 UNLV                        71  53   +19.01    -1.01
AWAY   # 33 TCU                         86  80    +4.57    +1.43
HOME   # 35 Kansas State                90  88   +11.21    -9.21
HOME   # 29 Texas Tech                  85  68   +10.10    +6.90
AWAY   # 66 Oklahoma                    81  70    +9.24    +1.76
HOME   # 28 Oklahoma State                       +10.09             0.822
AWAY   # 16 Iowa State                            -0.11             0.496
HOME   # 64 Texas                                +15.44             0.936
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia                         -7.32             0.236
AWAY   #  2 Kentucky                              -6.39             0.243
HOME   # 11 Baylor                                +5.11             0.742
HOME   # 16 Iowa State                            +6.19             0.713
AWAY   # 35 Kansas State                          +4.91             0.763
AWAY   # 29 Texas Tech                            +3.80             0.693
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                         -1.02             0.460
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                                -1.19             0.440
HOME   # 33 TCU                                  +10.87             0.929
AWAY   # 64 Texas                                 +9.14             0.816
HOME   # 66 Oklahoma                             +15.54             0.967
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma State                        +3.79             0.635

Here is Oklahoma State's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #299 Campbell                   102  65   +25.84   +11.16
HOME   #313 Central Arkansas           102  90   +27.42   -15.42
HOME   #260 New Orleans                117  72   +23.31   +21.69
NEUT   # 84 Connecticut                 98  90    +7.68    +0.32
NEUT   #  3 North Carolina              75 107    -8.72   -23.28
NEUT   # 45 Georgetown                  97  70    +2.76   +24.24
Div2        Rogers State               101  85
AWAY   # 53 Maryland                    70  71    +0.40    -1.40
AWAY   #122 Tulsa                       71  67    +7.74    -3.74
HOME   #348 Ark.-Pine Bluff            102  66   +35.03    +0.97
AWAY   # 18 Wichita State               93  76    -6.54   +23.54
HOME   #234 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi     92  70   +21.51    +0.49
HOME   #  1 West Virginia               75  92    -7.96    -9.04
AWAY   # 64 Texas                       79  82    +2.20    -5.20
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                      57  61    -8.13    +4.13
HOME   # 16 Iowa State                  86  96    -0.75    -9.25
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                               -10.09             0.178
HOME   # 35 Kansas State                          +4.27             0.651
AWAY   # 29 Texas Tech                            -3.14             0.392
HOME   # 33 TCU                                   +3.93             0.635
HOME   # 46 Arkansas                              +5.92             0.681
AWAY   # 66 Oklahoma                              +2.30             0.575
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia                        -14.26             0.143
HOME   # 11 Baylor                                -1.83             0.438
HOME   # 64 Texas                                 +8.50             0.738
AWAY   # 33 TCU                                   -2.37             0.417
HOME   # 66 Oklahoma                              +8.60             0.761
AWAY   # 35 Kansas State                          -2.03             0.427
HOME   # 29 Texas Tech                            +3.16             0.609
AWAY   # 16 Iowa State                            -7.05             0.307
HOME   #  7 Kansas                                -3.79             0.365