Big 12 Analysis

For thos 3 of you out there that like weird analysis, here is my first edition of the Big 12 Team analysis. This is a measure of the actual scoring margin vs. the projected margin. If you are interested here is a brief explanation of the analysis.

As you know I have developed an algorithm to rate all the teams. With all due respect to KenPom, Sagarin and other wannabe's, my DPPI will soon be the gold standard. It is "Pure Predictor" model which means it is not swayed by anything other than variables that can be used to predict future performance. Secondly, it can be used to determine various aspects of a teams collective resume'. One aspect that turns out to be somewhat important is the consistency of a team. It is important for several reasons. The most important is that it is critical to determining the probability of winning against an opponent. Without going into the gory detail, suffice it to say that a very consistent team will have a higher probability of winning for a given predicted scoring margin. For instance, if KU's consistency factor is 0.94 and we are favored by 5 points we would have a 80% chance of winning whereas a team with a consistency factor of 1.5 would have a probability of winning with a 5 point margin of maybe 65%. So when you see a lower consistency factor, that is generally speaking a good thing. Plus it means that the team performs pretty consistently. TCU has been crazily consistent in Big 12 play. Baylor is being Baylor which means they start out pretty well and fade. Iowa St. has been very consistent. West Virginia is the highest rated team in the Big 12 but they also have been fairly inconsistent. This means they are more likely on any goven night to ghave a bad game. But they can also have a crazy good game like they did against Baylor. The two craziest games thus far in Big 12 play is Baylors blowout of OU and Texas Tech's win against West Virginia. Overall for the season KU has been the 9th most consistent team in the country. I hope you are able to see this graphic. I went to the extra trouble to use accurate schools colors.

Cool stuff. I would think that predictability is a good thing with this, as it means you're probably more consistent. So "less ink on the page" is preferable to wild deviations in both directions. I would also imagine that as more data gets accumulated, there will be even smaller deviations.

Baylor and TCU have clear trends going. With TCU it looks like their data is flattening and becoming more stable as they approach the statistical average that they're supposed to be at. If I were Baylor, I'd be concerned. Not only is the trend toward underperformance, but it's getting wider. Of course WVU will throw a wrench in anyone's gears, particularly in Morgantown where I think the refs will let the "thuggieball" game happen more than they will elsewhere.