Big 12 projection, Round 4

Bruce Weber picked up a technical, which gave his opponent 2 points, which was
just enough for Texas Tech to pick up a 1 point win.  It cost the Wildcats a
road win and a spot in the projected standings, as Kansas State slips behind
TCU.  No other changes in the standings, though the margin between West Virginia
and Kansas widened some, but after rounding, we're now looking at a shared
conference championship with 14-4 records.

All five upper division teams are playing lower division teams in Round 5.  Four
of them are on the road, so there are four projected road wins.  However, only
West Virginia has what could be called a comfortable margin.  With Baylor's
confidence possibly shattered and Kansas State out to atone for Tuesday's
meltdown in Lubbock, the Bears could quite possibly pick up another loss.  With
Woodard back, Oklahoma's chances against Texas Tech just got somewhat better,
and Iowa State is expected to be in a one-possession game with TCU that ought
to go down to the wire.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  1  West Virginia   14.20  14.75  13.76  13.84  14.26    3  1  @UT  (Sa)   WVU by 13.3  proj. road win
#  7  Kansas          13.34  13.49  13.01  13.40  13.60    4  0   OSU (Sa)   KU  by 10.0
# 12  Baylor          11.51  12.36  12.69  12.73  12.17    3  1  @KSU (Sa)   BU  by  2.9  proj. road win
# 16  Iowa State       9.97  10.34  10.24  10.29  11.02    3  1  @TCU (Sa)   ISU by  1.5  proj. road win
# 28  Texas Tech       8.00   7.73   8.88   8.48   8.78    2  2  @OU  (Sa)   TTU by  2.3  proj. road win
# 33  TCU              7.42   7.25   7.24   7.21   7.72    2  2   ISU (Sa)
# 35  Kansas State     6.26   6.38   6.95   7.43   7.26    2  2   BU  (Sa)
# 30  Oklahoma State   8.55   7.97   7.17   7.21   6.61    0  4  @KU  (Sa)
# 64  Texas            5.04   4.85   5.44   5.30   4.71    1  3   WVU (Sa)              
# 66  Oklahoma         5.71   4.88   4.62   4.11   3.87    0  4   TTU (Sa)              

Yours truly took honors for best prognostications in Round 4.  Sagarin retains
the season lead by a hair over Greenfield.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Error               1                                         1           1           1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
TTU over KSU     4.6   1.0   3.1   5.5  14.5   5.5   0.7   4.6   2.7         4.0   4.9   4.7   5.1   2.2            1     3.6   0.0   2.1   4.5  13.5   4.5   0.3   3.6   1.7         3.0   3.9   3.7   4.1   1.2  
OSU over ISU     0.3   2.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   1.8   0.6   1.5         7.0   3.3   0.4   0.8   3.8          -10    10.3  12.0  12.0  11.0  13.0  11.0  11.8  10.6  11.5        17.0  13.3  10.4  10.8  13.8  
TCU over UT      1.1   2.0   2.1   0.0  -8.5   1.0   7.2   3.0   3.2         2.0   3.6   4.5   4.2  -0.3            3     1.9   1.0   0.9   3.0  11.5   2.0   4.2   0.0   0.2         1.0   0.6   1.5   1.2   3.3  
WVU over BU      8.2   4.0   4.9   6.0   9.5   6.0  -6.0   8.6   3.8         4.0   5.0  10.0  10.4   2.6           21    12.8  17.0  16.1  15.0  11.5  15.0  27.0  12.4  17.2        17.0  16.0  11.0  10.6  18.4  
KU  over OU      8.9  10.0   9.8  11.0   1.0  11.0  17.5  10.0  11.2         4.0   8.8  10.9  10.5  12.9           11     2.1   1.0   1.2   0.0  10.0   0.0   6.5   1.0   0.2         7.0   2.2   0.1   0.5   1.9  

total this round                                                                                                         30.7  31.0  32.3  33.5  59.5  32.5  49.8  27.6  30.8        45.0  36.0  26.7  27.2  38.6  
previous total                                                                                                           93.0  98.0  96.0  91.0 106.0  92.5 122.7 102.3 101.6       129.0 113.6 106.7 109.5 111.2
cumulative                                                                                                              123.7 129.0 128.3 124.5 165.5 125.0 172.5 129.9 132.4       174.0 149.6 133.4 136.7 149.8  
per game (total of 20)                                                                                                    6.2   6.4   6.4   6.2   8.3   6.3   8.6   6.5   6.6         8.7   7.5   6.7   6.8   7.5  

Two road wins were projected in Round 4, but three occurred, as the
Iowa State game at Stillwater was deemed pretty much a toss-up.  There
are four projected road wins in Round 5.

Road wins (6 out of 20)                 Home losses                                 Differential (RW-HL)
-------------------------------------   -----------------------------------------   --------------------
2 Kansas          TCU OU                0 Baylor                                    +2 Kansas        
1 Baylor          OU                    0 Iowa State                                +1 Baylor        
1 Iowa State      OSU                   0 Kansas                                    +1 West Virginia 
1 TCU             UT                    0 Kansas State                              +1 Iowa State    
1 West Virginia   OSU                   0 Texas Tech                                 0 Kansas State  
0 Kansas State                          0 West Virginia                              0 TCU           
0 Oklahoma                              1 TCU             KU                         0 Texas Tech    
0 Oklahoma State                        1 Texas           TCU                       -1 Texas         
0 Texas                                 2 Oklahoma        BU  KU                    -2 Oklahoma      
0 Texas Tech                            2 Oklahoma State  WVU ISU                   -2 Oklahoma State

Baylor's trend took quite a hit after the huge loss to West Virginia,
but only Oklahoma's trend has any statistical significance, and the
return of Woodard might reverse that trend.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
West Virginia   +3.47    Kansas            6.69    
TCU             +1.92    Kansas State      6.88    
Iowa State      +1.56    TCU               8.06    
Oklahoma State  +1.27    Texas Tech        8.27    
Baylor          +1.14    Baylor            8.84    
Kansas State    +0.92    Oklahoma         10.05    
Texas Tech      +0.91    Texas            12.58    
Kansas          +0.74    West Virginia    12.65    
Oklahoma        -1.21    Iowa State       14.07    
Texas           -1.34    Oklahoma State   14.07    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas           +0.67 +/- 0.68    Kansas State    +0.29 +/- 0.14
Kansas State    +0.27 +/- 0.38    Baylor          +0.11 +/- 0.20
Kansas          +0.21 +/- 0.37    Texas           +0.08 +/- 0.33
TCU             +0.06 +/- 0.50    West Virginia   +0.03 +/- 0.24
Texas Tech      -0.08 +/- 0.46    Oklahoma State  -0.11 +/- 0.26
Baylor          -0.15 +/- 0.55    Texas Tech      -0.12 +/- 0.15
West Virginia   -0.24 +/- 0.71    Iowa State      -0.16 +/- 0.27
Oklahoma State  -0.43 +/- 0.86    Oklahoma        -0.19 +/- 0.22
Iowa State      -0.49 +/- 0.86    TCU             -0.20 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma        -0.69 +/- 0.59    Kansas          -0.22 +/- 0.19

Two conference members are now in the Top 10 in strength of schedule.  It
will be interesting to see how many get there by the end of the season.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
West Virginia   89.06   Baylor          61.73   Oklahoma State  166.07   West Virginia   +26.25   
Oklahoma State  87.47   Kansas State    62.25   Kansas          156.06   Iowa State      +15.07   
Kansas          85.31   West Virginia   62.81   West Virginia   151.88   Kansas          +14.56   
Iowa State      81.33   Texas Tech      63.88   Oklahoma        147.80   Texas Tech      +13.31   
Texas Tech      77.19   TCU             66.20   Iowa State      147.60   Kansas State    +12.62   
TCU             75.93   Iowa State      66.27   TCU             142.13   Baylor          +11.73   
Kansas State    74.88   Texas           68.00   Texas Tech      141.06   TCU              +9.73   
Oklahoma        74.13   Kansas          70.75   Kansas State    137.12   Oklahoma State   +8.87   
Baylor          73.47   Oklahoma        73.67   Texas           136.94   Texas            +0.94   
Texas           68.94   Oklahoma State  78.60   Baylor          135.20   Oklahoma         +0.47   

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Oklahoma State  78.96 (  6)
Baylor          78.40 (  7)
Oklahoma        77.77 ( 14)
Kansas          76.38 ( 28)
Texas           76.37 ( 29)
Iowa State      75.40 ( 43)
TCU             74.55 ( 63)
West Virginia   70.89 (192)
Kansas State    70.15 (230)
Texas Tech      69.54 (250)