predictions for Oklahoma game

Triple overtime, anyone?

It seems unlikely, if for no other reason than it appears that Woodard
is still out.  But last year's game in Norman is one of the all-time
classics that I'm sure some people would love to see again.  But alas,
no Buddy Hield for Devonte Graham to school this time.

Sagarin gives Kansas an 8.9 point margin, with an 84.6 percent probability
of winning the game.  The two teams average 152.0 points per game (Kansas
about 11 more than Oklahoma), so the suggested final score would be
Kansas 80, Oklahoma 72, with the rounding working in the Sooners' favor.
The Jayhawks are playing an average of 0.7 points above expectation, while
Oklahoma is playing an average of 1.2 points below expectation, which
increases the margin to 10.9 points.  Kansas plays more consistently than
Oklahoma by about 3.3 points.  A repeat of the performance against Kansas
State would produce overtime (9 points below expectation), so perhaps a
7 percent chance of losing, whereas Oklahoma has played 3 games above
expectation by at least 9 points, corresponding to a 21 percent chance of
winning.  Those average to a 14 percent chance of Kansas losing, in good
agreement with the 15 percent chance derived from the Predictor ratings.
Kansas has a weakly positive trend while Oklahoma has a strongly negative
trend, presumably due to Woodard being out.  Both teams have negative
mental toughness ratings of comparable size and significance.  Taken at
face value, they would suggest a margin of 12.9 points.  The new Sagarin
"offense-defense" method puts the margin at 11.5 points, with a final
score of Kansas 87, Oklahoma 75.  Unexpectedly, a new table appeared in
the Sagarin ratings today, showing the old "Elo Chess" rating method and
a new "Blue" rating method, in which Kansas ranks #8 and #7, respectively,
but #4 in the "Combo" rating.  I wonder if these new ranking methods will
disappear or persist through the end of the season?

Massey gives Kansas a 10.0 point margin, with an 82 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 84, Oklahoma 74.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 14.9 units, as well as
the better adjusted defense by 3.1 units, which combine to an advantage of
18.0 units for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is 71.9, which translates
into a 12.9 point advantage for Kansas.  But we need to subtract the home court
advantage, which Sagarin has currently pegged at 3.2 points.  That makes the
margin 9.8 points, with the rounding working in Kansas' favor, and the
predicted final score Kansas 81, Oklahoma 71.

Greenfield gives Kansas an 11.0 point margin, with a Vegas implied final
score of Kansas 82.5, Oklahoma 71.5 (you pick the roundings).  Among the
key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all eight categories.
Woof.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of
the seven categories; Oklahoma steals more balls per game and commits fewer
fouls per game.  (As an aside, when I started preparation of this summary,
the Greenfield margin was just 10.5 points; it went up during the one-hour
hiatus in preparation.  I guess I didn't realize how dynamic their
predictions could be.)

Dunkel gives Kansas just a 1.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line
is at 11.0 points, so he is picking Oklahoma against the spread.  His total
points is 149, suggesting a final score of Kansas 75, Oklahoma 74.  Meanwhile,
Vegas calls for 157 total points, suggesting a final score of Kansas 84,
Oklahoma 73.

Real Time gives Kansas a 13 point margin and a final score of Kansas 84,
Oklahoma 71.  But if you click on the Scouting link, Oklahoma is favored by
4 (!!!), with a probability of winning at 41.5 percent, and a final score of
Kansas 78, Oklahoma 82.  By way of comparison, Real Time has West Virginia
by 3 over Baylor, but the Scouting link has West Virginia by 20!

Collegiate Basketball News has Villanova as #1 in the RPI, with Baylor at #2
leading the Big 12.  Kansas is at #4, and TCU is third in the Big 12 at #38,
with West Virginia hot on their heels at #39.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 10.0 point margin and a 79.2 percent probability of
winning, with a final score of Kansas 83, Oklahoma 73.

Don Davis' January 7 email gives Kansas an 11.5 point margin, a 90.7 percent
probability of wininng, and a final score of Kansas 82, Oklahoma 70.5 (you
pick the rounding).

Colley gives Kansas a 13.0 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.2 point home court advantage.

Whitlock gives Kansas an 11.2 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.2 point home court advantage.

The new and improved BPI still isn't up.

The LRMC is on board for this season!  I wasn't expecting to see it until
the tournament.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 4.0 point margin with a 66 percent probability
of winning the game.  The suggested final score is Kansas 78, Oklahoma 74.
Kansas is back to being Seven Overtimes' #1 team.

Crotistics gives Kansas an 8.8 point margin.

There are two common opponents, namely TCU and Kansas State:

KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)
OU   -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU   +5 OU  on road ( +9 neutral court)

KU   +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
OU  -11 KSU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU   +1 OU  on road ( +5 neutral court)

Players to watch:  Guard Jordan Woodard plays the most minutes, scores the
most points, dishes the most assists, and is their leading thief, but is
not expected to play, as he is still recovering from a pulled leg muscle
(but you can see how much he means to this team); forward Khadeem Lattin
grabs the most rebounds and blocks the most shots, but also commits the
most personal fouls; guard Christian James commits the most turnovers.

So, the various prognostications range from a 17.5 point win (Colley)
to a 4 point loss (Real Time), with the average being 9.3 points,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 81, Oklahoma 71, with the rounding
working in the Jayhawks' favor.

Personally, I'm having a hard time deciding how to go on this one.
The expected absence of Woodard suggests a larger margin than the
various computer projections.  On the other hand, the two common
opponents suggest a smaller margin, and both of those games were
played without Woodard.  Decisions, decisions.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   # 30   #  6   #  4   #  4   +0.7    7.0   +0.20 +/- 0.43   -0.23 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma       # 71   # 23   # 66   # 76   # 78   -1.2   10.3   -0.81 +/- 0.67   -0.20 +/- 0.24
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  4  # 10   #  6   # 34   #  5  #  8    #  5    #  2   # 22   #  4   # 21
Oklahoma       # 96  # 17   # 75   # 31   # 65  # 31    # 70    #169   # 57   #171   # 58
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  4   #  4   #  8   #  4   #  4   #  3   #  4   0.875   14-1     #     #   
Oklahoma       #143   #142   # 82   #194   #169   #164   #134   0.550    6-8     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  4  # 18    #  6  # 15    #  6  #       #  9  #  6    #  1  #  8    #  9  # 44
Oklahoma       #165  # 51    # 97  # 21    #     #       # 85  # 48    # 84  # 15    # 33  #309

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 23 Indiana                     99 103    +4.21    -8.21
NEUT   #  4 Duke                        77  75    -1.11    +3.11
HOME   #186 Siena                       86  65   +25.50    -4.50
HOME   #142 UAB                         83  63   +22.29    -2.29
HOME   # 54 Georgia                     65  54   +13.97    -2.97
HOME   #137 NC Asheville                95  57   +21.89   +16.11
HOME   #209 Long Beach State            91  61   +26.71    +3.29
HOME   #102 Stanford                    89  74   +19.51    -4.51
HOME   #279 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +31.09   +11.91
HOME   # 85 Nebraska                    89  72   +17.76    -0.76
HOME   # 74 Davidson                    89  71   +16.19    +1.81
AWAY   #187 UNLV                        71  53   +19.45    -1.45
AWAY   # 34 TCU                         86  80    +4.61    +1.39
HOME   # 40 Kansas State                90  88   +11.24    -9.24
HOME   # 29 Texas Tech                  85  68    +9.80    +7.20
AWAY   # 66 Oklahoma                              +8.92             0.846
HOME   # 27 Oklahoma State                        +9.57             0.803
AWAY   # 17 Iowa State                            +0.27             0.510
HOME   # 65 Texas                                +15.09             0.927
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia                         -6.92             0.249
AWAY   #  2 Kentucky                              -6.78             0.232
HOME   # 10 Baylor                                +4.42             0.717
HOME   # 17 Iowa State                            +6.61             0.724
AWAY   # 40 Kansas State                          +4.90             0.758
AWAY   # 29 Texas Tech                            +3.46             0.672
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                         -0.58             0.477
AWAY   # 10 Baylor                                -1.92             0.402
HOME   # 34 TCU                                  +10.95             0.923
AWAY   # 65 Texas                                 +8.75             0.800
HOME   # 66 Oklahoma                             +15.26             0.959
AWAY   # 27 Oklahoma State                        +3.23             0.613

Here is Oklahoma's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #303 Northwestern State          97  61   +20.83   +15.17
NEUT   #286 Tulane                      89  70   +16.50    +2.50
NEUT   #139 Northern Iowa               67  73    +6.80   -12.80
NEUT   # 26 Clemson                     70  64    -5.82   +11.82
HOME   #305 Abilene Christian           72  64   +21.18   -13.18
HOME   #237 Northern Colorado           87  66   +16.45    +4.55
AWAY   # 12 Wisconsin                   70  90   -13.77    -6.23
HOME   #213 Oral Roberts                92  66   +14.92   +11.08
HOME   # 16 Wichita State               73  76    -5.80    +2.80
HOME   # 67 Memphis                     94  99    +3.25    -8.25
NEUT   # 87 Auburn                      70  74    +2.65    -6.65
HOME   # 10 Baylor                      50  76    -7.67   -18.33
AWAY   # 34 TCU                         57  60    -7.48    +4.48
AWAY   # 40 Kansas State                64  75    -7.19    -3.81
HOME   #  6 Kansas                                -8.92             0.155
HOME   # 29 Texas Tech                            -2.29             0.404
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia                        -19.01             0.049
HOME   # 17 Iowa State                            -5.48             0.328
AWAY   # 65 Texas                                 -3.34             0.387
HOME   # 15 Florida                               -6.08             0.284
HOME   # 27 Oklahoma State                        -2.52             0.420
AWAY   # 29 Texas Tech                            -8.63             0.180
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                        -12.67             0.135
AWAY   # 17 Iowa State                           -11.82             0.169
HOME   # 65 Texas                                 +3.00             0.601
AWAY   # 27 Oklahoma State                        -8.86             0.238
AWAY   # 10 Baylor                               -14.01             0.067
HOME   # 40 Kansas State                          -0.85             0.461
AWAY   #  6 Kansas                               -15.26             0.041
HOME   # 34 TCU                                   -1.14             0.451