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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 3
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7 years 10 months ago #10278
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Kansas State won while TCU and Oklahoma State lost on Saturday, which enabled the
Wildcats to leapfrog both of those teams in the projected standings. Although TCU
and Oklahoma State appear to be in a virtual tie, TCU has the edge if you look at
thousandths of a win. No other changes in the standings, though the gap between
West Virginia and Kansas narrowed a bit more. West Virginia remained #1 in
Sagarin Predictor, but slipped to #2 behind Kentucky overall.
For the first time in the history of these conference projections, we have a
projected toss-up down to thousandths of a game. Iowa State is better than
Oklahoma State by the same amount as the home court advantage, leading to a
projected tie in that game. However, a Big 12 home court has historically been
worth more than the national average, so give the edge to Oklahoma State. Best
game of Round 4? Obviously Baylor at West Virginia. Not just a matchup between
upper division teams, but also a matchup of contenders. Here's a chance for
Huggins to hang a conference loss on Baylor and remove another team from the
list of undefeateds.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 1 West Virginia 14.20 14.75 13.76 13.84 2 1 BU (Tu) WVU by 8.1
# 6 Kansas 13.34 13.49 13.01 13.40 3 0 @OU (Tu) KU by 9.0 projected road win
# 11 Baylor 11.51 12.36 12.69 12.73 3 0 @WVU (Tu)
# 17 Iowa State 9.97 10.34 10.24 10.29 2 1 @OSU (We) ISU by 0.0 toss-up
# 29 Texas Tech 8.00 7.73 8.88 8.48 1 2 KSU (Tu) TTU by 4.6
# 40 Kansas State 6.26 6.38 6.95 7.43 2 1 @TT (Tu)
# 34 TCU 7.42 7.25 7.24 7.21 1 2 @UT (We) TCU by 1.1 projected road win
# 30 Oklahoma State 8.55 7.97 7.17 7.21 0 3 ISU (We) OSU by 0.0 toss-up
# 65 Texas 5.04 4.85 5.44 5.30 1 2 TCU (We)
# 66 Oklahoma 5.71 4.88 4.62 4.11 0 3 KU (Tu)
Greenfield took honors for best prognostications in Round 3 and also moved into
the season lead.
Predictions Reality Error 1 1 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Coll Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd DPPI Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Coll Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd DPPI
KSU over OU 6.4 8.0 8.5 11.0 7.5 11.0 14.0 8.6 9.8 9.0 9.5 8.5 8.9 11.3 11 4.6 3.0 2.5 0.0 3.5 0.0 3.0 2.4 1.2 2.0 1.5 2.5 2.1 0.3
KU over TTU 9.0 12.0 8.5 11.0 8.0 10.5 13.0 7.0 8.7 7.0 10.0 8.3 8.7 7.9 7.4 17 8.0 5.0 8.5 6.0 9.0 6.5 4.0 10.0 8.3 10.0 7.0 8.7 8.3 9.1 9.6
BU over OSU 9.5 12.0 11.1 12.0 4.0 11.5 14.3 11.9 13.7 9.0 10.5 9.8 10.2 13.9 4 5.5 8.0 7.1 8.0 0.0 7.5 10.3 7.9 9.7 5.0 6.5 5.8 6.2 9.9
ISU over UT 12.0 12.0 9.9 9.0 14.0 9.5 10.5 12.4 10.2 5.0 14.5 15.0 15.4 9.1 9 3.0 3.0 0.9 0.0 5.0 0.5 1.5 3.4 1.2 4.0 5.5 6.0 6.4 0.1
WVU over TCU 15.0 12.0 11.9 13.0 5.5 13.0 4.8 15.2 11.3 5.0 10.8 16.5 16.8 18.3 12 3.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 6.5 1.0 7.2 3.2 0.7 7.0 1.2 4.5 4.8 6.3
total this round 24.1 19.0 19.1 15.0 24.0 15.5 26.0 26.9 21.1 28.0 21.7 27.5 27.8 25.7
previous total 68.9 79.0 76.9 76.0 82.0 77.0 96.7 75.4 80.5 101.0 91.9 79.2 81.7 85.5
cumulative 93.0 98.0 96.0 91.0 106.0 92.5 122.7 102.3 101.6 129.0 113.6 106.7 109.5 111.2
per game (total of 15) 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.1 7.1 6.2 8.2 6.8 6.8 8.6 7.6 7.1 7.3 7.4
All the home courts won in Round 3, as projected.
There are two projected road wins in Round 4.
Road wins (3 out of 15) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------- --------------------
1 Baylor OU 0 Baylor +1 Baylor
1 Kansas TCU 0 Iowa State +1 Kansas
1 West Virginia OSU 0 Kansas +1 West Virginia
0 Iowa State 0 Kansas State 0 Iowa State
0 Kansas State 0 Texas 0 Kansas State
0 Oklahoma 0 Texas Tech 0 Texas
0 Oklahoma State 0 West Virginia 0 Texas Tech
0 TCU 1 Oklahoma BU -1 Oklahoma
0 Texas 1 Oklahoma State WVU -1 Oklahoma State
0 Texas Tech 1 TCU KU -1 TCU
Seeing Kansas at the bottom of the conference in mental toughness shouldn't
be too big a concern. The statistical significance of the quantity just
isn't very high, and against the weaker opponents, such as Oklahoma on
Tuesday, it actually helps a little. Now, when we go to Lexington and
Morgantown, it might matter a bit more.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
West Virginia +3.40 Kansas 6.97
TCU +2.02 Kansas State 6.99
Baylor +1.56 TCU 7.07
Oklahoma State +1.52 Baylor 8.40
Iowa State +1.40 Texas Tech 8.54
Texas Tech +1.00 Oklahoma 10.27
Kansas State +0.92 West Virginia 12.62
Kansas +0.72 Texas 12.96
Oklahoma -1.21 Iowa State 14.15
Texas -1.38 Oklahoma State 14.36
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Texas +0.81 +/- 0.77 Baylor +0.33 +/- 0.20
Kansas State +0.30 +/- 0.43 Kansas State +0.31 +/- 0.16
Baylor +0.27 +/- 0.57 Texas +0.06 +/- 0.35
Kansas +0.21 +/- 0.43 West Virginia -0.04 +/- 0.25
TCU +0.06 +/- 0.58 Oklahoma State -0.08 +/- 0.27
Texas Tech -0.02 +/- 0.53 Texas Tech -0.13 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma State -0.06 +/- 0.99 Oklahoma -0.20 +/- 0.24
West Virginia -0.48 +/- 0.77 Iowa State -0.21 +/- 0.28
Oklahoma -0.82 +/- 0.67 TCU -0.21 +/- 0.19
Iowa State -0.85 +/- 0.95 Kansas -0.23 +/- 0.20
One more game before Texas Tech gets out of the 300s in strength of schedule.
If the current Predictor rankings were to hold, by the end of the season,
Kansas will have played #1 twice (West Virginia), #2 once (Kentucky, on the
road, no less), and #3 once (Duke, on a neutral court). Kansas should be
near the top of Division I in strength of schedule when it's all said and done.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
West Virginia 89.20 Baylor 59.93 Oklahoma State 164.93 West Virginia +26.87
Oklahoma State 87.71 Kansas State 62.13 Kansas 156.40 Iowa State +15.14
Kansas 85.47 West Virginia 62.33 West Virginia 151.53 Kansas +14.53
Iowa State 80.14 Texas Tech 63.67 Oklahoma 147.57 Texas Tech +14.40
Texas Tech 78.07 Iowa State 65.00 Iowa State 145.14 Baylor +13.79
TCU 76.64 TCU 66.71 TCU 143.36 Kansas State +13.27
Kansas State 75.40 Texas 68.13 Texas Tech 141.73 Oklahoma State +10.50
Oklahoma 74.57 Kansas 70.93 Texas 137.73 TCU +9.93
Baylor 73.71 Oklahoma 73.00 Kansas State 137.53 Oklahoma +1.57
Texas 69.60 Oklahoma State 77.21 Baylor 133.64 Texas +1.47
Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Oklahoma State 77.46 ( 14)
Baylor 76.96 ( 19)
Oklahoma 76.63 ( 24)
Texas 76.05 ( 28)
Kansas 75.84 ( 32)
Iowa State 73.83 ( 71)
TCU 73.75 ( 72)
West Virginia 69.38 (256)
Kansas State 69.00 (278)
Texas Tech 68.24 (306)
The following user(s) said Thank You: konza63, HawkErrant
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