predictions for Kansas State game

First, a warning:  I'll be on travel for the next two games; I plan to
post the usual predictions, but circumstances may cause those plans to
fail.

It doesn't "feel" right having a Sunflower Showdown game this early in
the conference season.  But as the tautology goes, it is what it is.
The game features the conference's two most consistent teams, and with
that level of consistency, one might expect the end result to be rather
close to the predicted final score Kansas 79, Kansas State 66.  It would
be perverse to see a result that would represent the least consistent
game of the season for both teams.  But it could happen.  Kansas State
struggled, at home, to defeat the conference cellar dwellar by just 3
points.  The only other team of comparable strength on their non-conference
schedule was Maryland, and that was a 1 point loss on a neutral court.
The rest of their schedule is littered with cupcakes, leaving them with
the #337 strength of schedule ranking among 351 Division I teams.  The
Wildcats simply don't have the experience with an opponent the caliber of
Kansas.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 12.6 point margin, with a 97.2 percent probability
of winning the game.  Kansas State has been playing the lowest scoring
games among Big 12 conference teams, while Kansas has been playing the
second-highest scoring games.  The average is 144.7 total points, so the
suggested final score would be Kansas 79, Kansas State 66.  Kansas has been
playing an average of 0.9 points above expectation, while the Wildcats have
been playing an average of 0.8 points above expectation, which is nearly a
wash.  And the consistency!  Ten of Kansas State's games have been within
6 points of expectation; one was about 8 points below expectation, and the
other two were 13 and 14 points above expectation, so based on that alone,
the Wildcats would have a 15 percent chance of winning the game.  Similarly,
Kansas has played 10 games within 5 points of expectation; one was about 8
points below expectation (Indiana), and the other two were 12 and 14 points
above expectation, so Kansas has yet to play badly enough to lose the game.
That averages to just an 8 percent chance of Kansas losing, somewhat more
than the Sagarin ratings would imply.  Both teams have positive trends, but
while Kansas' is of marginal significance, Kansas State's is not at all
significant.  In the mental toughness statistic, Kansas State has a positive
value, which works in their favor, reducing the margin to just 9.8 points.
The new Sagarin "offense-defense" method puts the margin at just 12.9 points,
and the final score is still Kansas 79, Kansas State 66.

Massey gives Kansas an 11.0 point margin, with an 86 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 76, Kansas State 65.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 8.4 units, as well as
the better adjusted defense by 2.6 units, which combine to an advantage of
11.0 units for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is 68.7, which translates
into a 7.6 point advantage for Kansas.  But we need to add the home court
advantage, which Sagarin has currently pegged at 3.1 points.  That makes the
margin 10.7 points and the predicted final score Kansas 76, Kansas State 66,
with the rounding working in the Wildcats' favor.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 13.5 point margin, with a Vegas implied final score
of Kansas 77, Kansas State 63, with the rounding working in the Jayhawks'
favor this time.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in
seven of the eight categories; Kansas State attempts more free throws per
field goal attempt.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in just three of the seven categories, namely grabbing more offensive rebounds
per game, grabbing more defensive rebounds per game, and blocking more shots
per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 16.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at
12.5 points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  His total points is
148, suggesting a final score of Kansas 82, Kansas State 66.  Meanwhile, Vegas
calls for 142 total points, suggesting a final score of Kansas 77, Kansas State 65.
By the way, Dunkel is picking Texas Tech over West Virginia by 1 point.  Wouldn't
that be nice?

Real Time is back among the living and gives Kansas a 12 point margin and a final
score of Kansas 88, Kansas State 76, unless if you click on the Scouting link,
where the margin is 20 points, the probability of winning is 86.5 percent, and
the final score is Kansas 90, Kansas State 70.  I fail to understand the
inconsistency.  I would have been just as happy if the web site had continued
to not exist.

Collegiate Basketball News has Villanova as #1 in the RPI, with Baylor up to
#2 leading the Big 12.  Kansas is at #7, and TCU is third in the Big 12 at #26.

Dolphin gives Kansas an 11.5 point margin and an 83.6 percent probability of
winning, with a final score of Kansas 77, Kansas State 66.

Don Davis' email graphic is damn near impossible to read, and zooming in only
makes matters worse, as the JPEG compression pixellation takes over.  I think
it gives Kansas a 12.6 point margin, but it sure looks like the score is given
as Kansas 78.5, Kansas State 66, which is only a 12.5 point margin.  Maybe it's
just the rounding kicking in.  It looks like the probability of victory is
90.2 percent.

Colley gives Kansas a 9.4 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 10.7 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

Curiously, there is a web site that discusses ESPN's BPI and how it doesn't
necessarily rank teams the same way as the human polls, with a slide show
showing the current Top 25, with West Virginia as #1, so it is clearly referring
to this season, yet the BPI for this season is still missing from the ESPN web
site.  However, there is a note saying "A new and improved BPI page will be
launched in early 2017."  It refers readers to an "analytics" page where one
can find the Top 30 listed, but no numbers from which to compute predicted
margins.  And they couldn't get that done before conference play started?
At least we know that Kansas is ranked #6.

The LRMC is on board for this season!  I wasn't expecting to see it until
the tournament.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 7.0 point margin with a 75 percent probability
of winning the game.  The suggested final score is Kansas 76, Kansas State 69.
Would you believe West Virginia 70, Texas Tech 75?  Then again, the wacky
Round 1 predictions didn't exactly pan out very well for Seven Overtimes,
finishing last by a wide margin among the various prognosticators I track.
They are the second-worst at predicting games, "worsted" only by Real Time.

Crotistics gives Kansas an 11.5 point margin.

There are no common opponents.

Players to watch:  Guard Kamau Stokes plays the most minutes and dishes the
most assists; guard Barry Brown scores the most points and is their leading
thief; forward D. J. Johnson grabs the most rebounds and blocks the most
shots, but also commits the most personal fouls; forward Wesley Iwundu
commits the most turnovers.  The Wildcats have two reserves out with
season-ending injuries and one reserve on indefinite suspension.

So, the various prognostications range from 7.0 points (Seven Overtimes) to
20 points (Real Time Scouting), with the average being 12.3 points, suggesting
a final score of Kansas 78, Kansas State 66.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  5   # 51   #  7   #  5   #  5   +0.9    6.3   +0.48 +/- 0.47   -0.27 +/- 0.19
Kansas State   # 43   #337   # 42   # 42   # 41   +0.8    6.9   +0.05 +/- 0.53   +0.27 +/- 0.26
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  4  #  9   #  5   # 51   #  4  #  7    #  5    #  3   # 47   #  7   # 48
Kansas State   # 27  #166   # 33   #341   # 37  #186    # 32    # 30   #312   # 62   #285
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  6   #  6   #  9   #  4   #  7   #  4   #  6   0.869   12-1     #     #   
Kansas State   # 40   # 40   # 41   # 46   # 62   # 28   # 39  -0.116   12-1     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  5  # 28    #  8  # 17    #  6  #       #  8  # 15    #  1  # 12    #  9  # 44
Kansas State   # 33  #293    # 36  #211    #     #       # 46  #319    # 24  #180    # 45  #334

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 19 Indiana                     99 103    +4.31    -8.31
NEUT   #  6 Duke                        77  75    -0.14    +2.14
HOME   #181 Siena                       86  65   +25.32    -4.32
HOME   #148 UAB                         83  63   +23.09    -3.09
HOME   # 47 Georgia                     65  54   +13.33    -2.33
HOME   #156 NC Asheville                95  57   +23.72   +14.28
HOME   #194 Long Beach State            91  61   +26.20    +3.80
HOME   # 98 Stanford                    89  74   +19.51    -4.51
HOME   #275 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +31.28   +11.72
HOME   # 83 Nebraska                    89  72   +17.72    -0.72
HOME   # 65 Davidson                    89  71   +15.78    +2.22
AWAY   #173 UNLV                        71  53   +18.68    -0.68
AWAY   # 34 TCU                         86  80    +4.60    +1.40
HOME   # 42 Kansas State                         +12.64             0.972
HOME   # 30 Texas Tech                           +10.16             0.915
AWAY   # 62 Oklahoma                              +8.96             0.838
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma State                       +10.27             0.809
AWAY   # 17 Iowa State                            +0.57             0.519
HOME   # 67 Texas                                +15.82             0.935
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia                         -7.46             0.235
AWAY   #  2 Kentucky                              -4.99             0.291
HOME   # 10 Baylor                                +4.20             0.713
HOME   # 17 Iowa State                            +6.87             0.720
AWAY   # 42 Kansas State                          +6.34             0.831
AWAY   # 30 Texas Tech                            +3.86             0.699
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                         -1.16             0.455
AWAY   # 10 Baylor                                -2.10             0.390
HOME   # 34 TCU                                  +10.90             0.922
AWAY   # 67 Texas                                 +9.52             0.819
HOME   # 62 Oklahoma                             +15.26             0.954
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma State                        +3.97             0.632

Here is Kansas State's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #297 Western Illinois            82  55   +23.32    +3.68
HOME   #201 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           81  68   +17.22    -4.22
HOME   #320 Hampton                     89  67   +25.91    -3.91
HOME   #252 Robert Morris               61  40   +20.53    +0.47
NEUT   #170 Boston College              72  54   +12.19    +5.81
NEUT   # 60 Maryland                    68  69    +2.43    -3.43
HOME   #183 Green Bay                   80  61   +15.88    +3.12
AWAY   #310 Saint Louis                 84  53   +18.01   +12.99
HOME   #330 Prairie View A&M            74  55   +27.19    -8.19
HOME   #191 Washington State            70  56   +16.51    -2.51
AWAY   #113 Colorado State              89  70    +4.69   +14.31
HOME   #206 Gardner-Webb                67  54   +17.52    -4.52
HOME   # 67 Texas                       65  62    +6.33    -3.33
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                               -12.64             0.028
HOME   # 62 Oklahoma                              +5.77             0.733
AWAY   # 30 Texas Tech                            -5.63             0.231
HOME   # 10 Baylor                                -5.29             0.247
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma State                        -5.52             0.322
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                        -10.65             0.155
AWAY   # 17 Iowa State                            -8.92             0.228
AWAY   # 59 Tennessee                             -0.93             0.460
HOME   # 34 TCU                                   +1.41             0.571
AWAY   # 10 Baylor                               -11.59             0.067
HOME   #  7 Kansas                                -6.34             0.169
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia                        -16.95             0.053
HOME   # 17 Iowa State                            -2.62             0.413
AWAY   # 67 Texas                                 +0.03             0.501
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma State                        +0.78             0.526
AWAY   # 62 Oklahoma                              -0.53             0.477
AWAY   # 34 TCU                                   -4.89             0.269
HOME   # 30 Texas Tech                            +0.67             0.535