predictions for TCU game

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asteroid
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7 years 10 months ago #10111 by asteroid

Captain's Log, Stardate 2456329.5: Kansas 55, Topeka YMCA 62.

And this Horned Frog team is a lot better than that team was. Cellar
dwellar no more, the coaching change in Fort Worth appears to have
yielded dividends. Today's opponent is the highest ranked team for
Kansas to face since the Champions Classic. Even Georgia and Davidson
are ranked down in the 50s. TCU is #34 in Sagarin Predictor. And this
is a true road game for the Jayhawks. I don't think any of the current
players were around for the debacle in Fort Worth four years ago. Perhaps
just as well. But let's hope they're aware of the wacky start to conference
play that we've seen elsewhere. Like Nebraska beating Indiana, in Bloomington
no less (Huskers are second-last in the B1G based on overall record), and
Villanova beating DePaul by only 3 points (DePaul is last in the Big East
based on overall record), and the Wildcats also had the home advantage. You
simply can't take any opponent for granted, particularly in this season's
Big 12, where everybody is ranked in the Top 70.

Sagarin gives Kansas just a 5.0 point margin, with a 73.0 percent probability
of winning the game. The two teams have been averaging 148.5 total points,
so the suggested final score would be Kansas 77, TCU 72. Kansas has been
playing an average of 1.0 points above expectation, but the Horned Frogs have
been playing an average of 2.9 points above expectation, which would decrease
the margin to just 3.1 points. Kansas is more consistent than TCU. Only
once have the Jayhawks played more than 5 points below expectation, and that
was way back in the first game of the season (although the Siena game came
close). That represents a 1 in 12 chance of losing, or 8.3 percent. Meanwhile,
TCU has played five games above expectation by more than 5 points, which would
be enough to win. With TCU's opener against an NAIA school for which there is
no Sagarin rating, that's 5 out of 11 games (including their two most recent
games), for a 45.5 percent chance of winning. Those two average to 26.9 percent,
virtually identical to the 27.0 percent probability of Kansas losing based on
the Sagarin Predictor ratings. Both teams have positive trends of virtually
identical amounts, though the value for Kansas has a somewhat greater
statistical significance to it. Both teams also have negative mental toughness
ratings, which works in Kansas' favor in this case, but only slightly. Taken
at face value, the margin would be 5.3 points for Kansas. The new Sagarin
"offense-defense" method puts the margin at just 2.9 points and the final score
at Kansas 77, TCU 74.

Massey gives Kansas an 8.0 point margin, with a 76 percent probability of
winning the game. His projected final score is Kansas 77, TCU 69.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 8.8 units, as well as
the better adjusted defense by 3.5 units, which combine to an advantage of
12.3 units for Kansas. The average adjusted tempo is 70.6, which translates
into an 8.7 point advantage for Kansas. But we need to deduct the home court
advantage, which Sagarin has currently pegged at 3.2 points. That makes the
margin just 5.5 points and the predicted final score Kansas 73, TCU 68.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 6.5 point margin, with a Vegas implied final score
of Kansas 75, TCU 69, with the rounding working in the Horned Frogs' favor.
Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of the eight
categories; TCU has a higher offensive rebound percentage, attempts more free
throws per field goal attempt, and has a slightly lower turnover percentage.
Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just three of the
seven categories, namely holding opponents to a lower effective field goal
percentage, grabbing more defensive rebounds per game, and blocking more shots
per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas an 8.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at
5.5 points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread. His total points is
157, suggesting a final score of Kansas 82.5, TCU 74.5 (you pick the roundings).
Meanwhile, Vegas calls for 146.5 total points, suggesting a final score of
Kansas 76, TCU 70.5 (you pick the rounding).

Real Time's web site still hasn't been responding (recall that it was down for
the UNLV game). No great loss, considering how it has historically been among
the least accurate of the various prognosticators, plus there has been the
inconsistency in predictions between his two pages for each team.

Collegiate Basketball News has Villanova as #1 in the RPI, with Baylor at #3
leading the Big 12. Kansas is at #10, and TCU is third in the Big 12 at #23.
Even Oklahoma State at #40 is higher than West Virginia at #45, thanks to the
Mountaineers' incredibly weak non-conference schedule.

Dolphin is finally on board for this season. He gives Kansas a 2.8 point
margin, a 59.2 percent probability of winning, and a predicted final score
of Kansas 75, TCU 72.

Don Davis gives Kansas a 4.8 point margin and a 68.7 percent probability
of winning the game. I think he's got the final score as Kansas 77, TCU 72
(rounded to the nearest integers), but the font size in the email graphic
is pushing the limits of what I can make out.

Colley is now on board with this season. Using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined last time, the neutral court margin would be just 3.8 points,
or just 0.7 points after accounting for the home court advantage.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 3.9 point margin.

ESPN still isn't on board with its BPI this season yet. Very surprising, as
I seem to recall having a complete set of predictions for conference games
based on the BPI last season. I'm still using last season's rankings in
the table below, which is rather unfair to TCU.

The LRMC isn't available for this season yet, as usual. I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below. LRMC usually shows up around the
time of the NCAA Tournament.

Seven Overtimes makes Kansas a 1.0 point underdog with a 50 percent
probability of winning the game. The suggested final score is
Kansas 74, TCU 75. And if that isn't odd enough for you, they are also
picking Oklahoma over Baylor by 3, Oklahoma State over West Virginia by 4,
and Texas Tech on the road over Iowa State by 1. Only Kansas State over
Texas by 11 doesn't break the mold. What I don't understand is how he's
picking Oklahoma over Baylor, unless he's using a huge home court advantage,
but in that case, Iowa State should have the edge over Texas Tech. It's a
bizarre set of predictions. And Kansas is Seven Overtimes' #1 team!

Crotistics gives Kansas a 2.4 point margin.

There is one common opponent, namely UNLV:

KU +18 UNLV on road (+22 neutral court)
TCU +4 UNLV on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU +10 TCU on road (+14 neutral court)

That's the most favorable of the various prognostications.

Players to watch: Guard Alex Robinson plays the most minutes, scores
the most points, dishes the most assists, and is their leading thief;
forward Vladimir Brodziansky blocks the most shots; guard Kenrich
Williams grabs the most rebounds by far; guard Jaylen Fisher commits
the most turnovers; guard Brandon Parrish commits the most personal
fouls; conspicuous by his absence from this list is forward Karviar
Shepherd; forward Kouat Noi is out due to eligibilty issues.

So, the various prognostications range from a 1 point loss to a 10 point
victory, with the average being 4.6 points. That would make it Kansas 77,
TCU 72.

Rock Chalk!

=================================== Sagarin ====================================
Rate SoS PP GM Rcnt Perf Inc. Trend Mental Tufness
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -------------- --------------
Kansas # 7 # 70 # 6 # 7 # 7 +1.0 6.6 +0.56 +/- 0.55 -0.28 +/- 0.20
TCU # 34 #197 # 34 # 39 # 38 +2.9 9.4 +0.60 +/- 0.92 -0.40 +/- 0.32

= Massey = = Pomeroy = Greenfield Dunkel Real Time === RPI ===
Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate Rate SoS Rate SoS
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Kansas # 3 # 8 # 6 # 75 # 5 # 7 # 5 # # # 10 # 54
TCU # 37 #140 # 36 #257 # 43 #119 # 40 # # # 23 #122

======================= Dolphin ====================== ===== == DPPI ==
Std. Med. Pre. IRPI RPI Pair Poll Sched Recrd Rate SoS
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ---- ----
Kansas # 9 # 9 # 9 # 8 # 10 # 7 # 10 0.818 11-1 # 6 # 36
TCU # 26 # 27 # 31 # 25 # 23 # 22 # 26 0.307 11-1 # 27 #206

= Colley = Whitlock ESPN BPI == LRMC == == 7OT === Crotistics
Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SoS
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Kansas # 5 # 35 # 7 # 17 # (5) # # (1) # # 1 # 7 # 5 # 12
TCU # 25 #166 # 33 #157 #(142)# #(157)# # 38 #149 # 30 #185

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 25-6;
we're still at four more projected losses; the consecutive road games at
West Virginia and Kentucky have been steady as two-possession loss margins,
while two toss-ups (also consecutive games) keep flipping their signs.

SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 17 Indiana 99 103 +3.95 -7.95
NEUT # 5 Duke 77 75 -1.18 +3.18
HOME #185 Siena 86 65 +25.87 -4.87
HOME #148 UAB 83 63 +23.24 -3.24
HOME # 51 Georgia 65 54 +13.77 -2.77
HOME #159 NC Asheville 95 57 +23.95 +14.05
HOME #192 Long Beach State 91 61 +26.33 +3.67
HOME # 75 Stanford 89 74 +17.06 -2.06
HOME #265 Kansas City(UMKC) 105 62 +30.98 +12.02
HOME # 90 Nebraska 89 72 +18.52 -1.52
HOME # 59 Davidson 89 71 +15.11 +2.89
AWAY #181 UNLV 71 53 +19.45 -1.45
AWAY # 34 TCU +4.96 0.730
HOME # 41 Kansas State +12.82 0.969
HOME # 31 Texas Tech +10.40 0.913
AWAY # 53 Oklahoma +7.89 0.820
HOME # 27 Oklahoma State +9.99 0.800
AWAY # 18 Iowa State +0.94 0.531
HOME # 67 Texas +16.14 0.933
AWAY # 1 West Virginia -6.97 0.258
AWAY # 4 Kentucky -4.77 0.301
HOME # 13 Baylor +5.80 0.802
HOME # 18 Iowa State +7.26 0.724
AWAY # 41 Kansas State +6.50 0.827
AWAY # 31 Texas Tech +4.08 0.703
HOME # 1 West Virginia -0.65 0.476
AWAY # 13 Baylor -0.52 0.470
HOME # 34 TCU +11.28 0.918
AWAY # 67 Texas +9.82 0.819
HOME # 53 Oklahoma +14.21 0.951
AWAY # 27 Oklahoma State +3.67 0.622

Here is TCU's season:

SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NAIA St. Thomas (TX) 82 64
HOME #338 Alabama State 98 62 +31.02 +4.98
HOME #199 Jacksonville State 79 60 +18.65 +0.35
HOME # 63 Illinois State 80 71 +7.50 +1.50
AWAY #181 UNLV 63 59 +11.33 -7.33
NEUT # 80 Washington 93 80 +5.93 +7.07
HOME # 80 Washington 86 71 +9.09 +5.91
HOME #107 Arkansas State 77 54 +12.09 +10.91
AWAY # 35 SMU 59 74 -3.04 -11.96
HOME #191 Wofford 72 63 +18.11 -9.11
HOME #200 Texas Southern 96 59 +18.65 +18.35
HOME #235 Bradley 74 42 +20.77 +11.23
HOME # 6 Kansas -4.96 0.270
HOME # 53 Oklahoma +6.09 0.732
AWAY # 1 West Virginia -15.09 0.099
AWAY # 67 Texas +1.70 0.557
HOME # 18 Iowa State -0.86 0.474
AWAY # 31 Texas Tech -4.04 0.327
HOME # 13 Baylor -2.32 0.390
AWAY # 27 Oklahoma State -4.45 0.364
HOME # 82 Auburn +9.19 0.816
AWAY # 41 Kansas State -1.62 0.423
HOME # 67 Texas +8.02 0.752
HOME # 31 Texas Tech +2.28 0.600
AWAY # 13 Baylor -8.64 0.149
HOME # 27 Oklahoma State +1.87 0.558
AWAY # 18 Iowa State -7.18 0.292
AWAY # 6 Kansas -11.28 0.082
HOME # 1 West Virginia -8.77 0.227
HOME # 41 Kansas State +4.70 0.713
AWAY # 53 Oklahoma -0.23 0.491

The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, Bayhawk, jayhawk969, Junkman, newtonhawk

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