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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
initial Big 12 projection
- asteroid
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7 years 10 months ago #10102
by asteroid
On Tuesday evening, Texas played (and lost) the last non-conference game
before conference play begins on Friday. The Sagarin ratings that include
that game are now out, so we can do the initial projection for the Big 12
conference race.
West Virginia starts the conference campaign as the team to beat, at least
according to Sagarin Predictor. The talking heads will still say that the
road to the conference title goes through Lawrence. The Mountaineers have
played such a weak schedule that their Sagarin Predictor rating must have a
fairly large uncertainty to it. We'll see how they do against Top 70 teams
twice a week. The Big 12 is the #1 conference, with nobody ranked in the
triple digits, unlike previous seasons. When a Shaka Smart team is ranked
at the bottom of the conference, that is saying something about the overall
strength of the conference. It's going to be a grind.
Init.
Pred Proj.
Rank Big XII Team Wins
---- -------------- -----
# 1 West Virginia 14.20
# 7 Kansas 13.34
# 13 Baylor 11.51
# 18 Iowa State 9.97
# 28 Oklahoma State 8.55
# 31 Texas Tech 8.00
# 33 TCU 7.42
# 42 Kansas State 6.26
# 52 Oklahoma 5.71
# 67 Texas 5.04
Round 1 features only a single game between upper division teams, and it
involves the two highest scoring teams in the conference. It's got the
biggest projected margin of the bunch, thanks to West Virginia's stingy
defense and Oklahoma State's porous defense, and would normally qualify for
"ugly game of the round", but it has implications for the conference race,
if the Cowboys can defend their home court.
Predictions
--------------------
Saga
BU over OU 5.3 projected road win
KU over TCU 5.3 projected road win
ISU over TTU 6.4
KSU over UT 6.5
WVU over OSU 7.4 projected road win
The long-term average is one road win in every three conference games, and
that average has been maintained season after season. There are three
projected road wins in Round 1. The conference championship is won with
road wins. Contenders tend to win at home.
Road wins (0 out of 0) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------- --------------------
0 Baylor 0 Baylor 0 Baylor
0 Iowa State 0 Iowa State 0 Iowa State
0 Kansas 0 Kansas 0 Kansas
0 Kansas State 0 Kansas State 0 Kansas State
0 Oklahoma 0 Oklahoma 0 Oklahoma
0 Oklahoma State 0 Oklahoma State 0 Oklahoma State
0 TCU 0 TCU 0 TCU
0 Texas 0 Texas 0 Texas
0 Texas Tech 0 Texas Tech 0 Texas Tech
0 West Virginia 0 West Virginia 0 West Virginia
In many cases, the trend and mental toughness statistics are not statistically
significant. The uncertainties generally drop to the 0.2 level by the end of
the season. Recall that mental toughness is a measure of how a team plays
relative to expectation versus the strength of an opponent. You can get a
negative rating by beating up on cupcakes, or a positive rating by letting
your foot off the gas against cupcakes. Because some conference members have
played such weak schedules, they haven't been tested against stronger opponents,
but if they can play above expectation against them, they can generate a positive
mental toughness rating.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points) Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
--------------------- ---------------------- ------------------------------ ------------------------------
West Virginia +4.36 Kansas 6.71 Texas +0.80 +/- 1.17 Kansas State +0.36 +/- 0.27
TCU +2.85 Kansas State 6.95 Oklahoma State +0.77 +/- 1.54 Baylor +0.32 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma State +2.32 Baylor 7.24 TCU +0.62 +/- 0.92 West Virginia +0.09 +/- 0.35
Iowa State +1.82 Texas Tech 8.39 Kansas +0.49 +/- 0.57 Oklahoma State +0.02 +/- 0.34
Baylor +1.71 TCU 9.35 Baylor +0.47 +/- 0.71 Oklahoma -0.19 +/- 0.28
Texas Tech +1.43 Oklahoma 9.94 Kansas State +0.24 +/- 0.61 Texas -0.21 +/- 0.45
Kansas +1.06 Texas 13.68 Texas Tech -0.07 +/- 0.74 Iowa State -0.27 +/- 0.36
Kansas State +0.89 West Virginia 13.73 West Virginia -0.37 +/- 1.20 Kansas -0.30 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma -1.03 Oklahoma State 15.54 Oklahoma -1.06 +/- 0.94 Texas Tech -0.33 +/- 0.29
Texas -1.81 Iowa State 16.08 Iowa State -1.47 +/- 1.54 TCU -0.37 +/- 0.31
Three Big 12 teams have played schedules that are ranked in the bottom thirteen.
Because they haven't really been tested yet, that makes their projections more
uncertain. Oklahoma State has a potent offense, but doesn't play defense.
Texas is offensively challenged. West Virginia looks strong on paper, but they
put up that second-ranked offense and second-ranked defense against a cupcake
schedule, save for the road game at Virginia, which they won.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts) Schedule Strength
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- --------------------------
Oklahoma State 92.27 Kansas State 59.50 Oklahoma State 169.36 West Virginia +30.92 Kansas 74.33 ( 69)
West Virginia 90.50 West Virginia 59.58 Kansas 154.08 Texas Tech +19.58 Baylor 73.87 ( 84)
Kansas 85.25 Baylor 60.64 Oklahoma 153.09 Iowa State +18.36 Texas 73.28 (100)
Iowa State 83.55 Texas Tech 61.08 West Virginia 150.08 Kansas +16.42 Oklahoma 73.13 (108)
Texas Tech 80.67 TCU 64.27 Iowa State 148.73 Kansas State +15.92 Oklahoma State 72.66 (123)
Oklahoma 79.18 Iowa State 65.18 TCU 142.91 Oklahoma State +15.18 TCU 70.78 (196)
TCU 78.64 Texas 66.75 Texas Tech 141.75 Baylor +15.00 Iowa State 70.00 (231)
Baylor 75.64 Kansas 68.83 Baylor 136.27 TCU +14.36 West Virginia 65.99 (339)
Kansas State 75.42 Oklahoma 73.91 Texas 135.75 Oklahoma +5.27 Kansas State 65.95 (341)
Texas 69.00 Oklahoma State 77.09 Kansas State 134.92 Texas +2.25 Texas Tech 64.23 (350)
P.S. To keep the columns aligned in tables, one needs to use the "code" attribute on the
text, but apparently the "code" attribute overrides the font size attribute, so I don't see any
easy way to prevent the lines from wrapping, other than to reduce the number of tables
placed side-by-side. But tables like the Home-Road differential make the most sense
when placed side-by-side. Maybe you can try copy and paste into some editor with a
monospaced font to see it without wrapping.
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, porthawk, Junkman, Illhawk, newtonhawk
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- NotOstertag
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7 years 10 months ago #10104
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
Good stuff as always, Asteroid. Thanks for posting. By my reckoning, it takes at least 13 wins (based on history) to win at least a share of the Big 12 title. 14 or more pretty much locks it up. That allows for 4-5 conference losses based on an 18 game schedule.
So while TCU is in the lower half of the conference, the fact remains that we're taking our show on the road, and any road win can help contribute to the minimum 4 or 5 necessary to have a shot at the title (assuming you win out at home).
Suffice it to say that I'm VERY interested in how KU, WVU and Baylor all do with opening up on the road. In particular, I think WVU@OSU could be an upset that would help us.
So while TCU is in the lower half of the conference, the fact remains that we're taking our show on the road, and any road win can help contribute to the minimum 4 or 5 necessary to have a shot at the title (assuming you win out at home).
Suffice it to say that I'm VERY interested in how KU, WVU and Baylor all do with opening up on the road. In particular, I think WVU@OSU could be an upset that would help us.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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- CorpusJayhawk
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7 years 10 months ago #10110
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
I'll weigh in with my DPPI initial Big 12 projections. It is West Virginia's to lose at this point and as I write this they are crushing Oklahoma St. in Stillwater. I am an eternal optimist so I think the superior coaching and home court advantage will turn the tide for the Jayhawks. But good golly Miss Molly this is going to be the toughest road to a conference championship we have ever had. As it stands this minute, KU has a 11.4% probability of winning the Big 12 in a shared title and only a 4.9% probability of winning outright. Lets go git 'er done boys.
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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- newtonhawk
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7 years 10 months ago #10112
by newtonhawk
I will be honest in saying that when I first saw asteroid's projections above, I was relieved and felt better about our status in the Big 12 race rather than adhering to Corpus' DPPI model. No offense, Corpus, but I tend to be a "homer," donning my rose-colored glasses almost all of the time, when it comes to Jayhawk BB. If WV puts the kind of a show with the rest of the league that they are displaying with OSU right now, your numbers might be closer than I was wanting to believe. On the other hand, asteroid plays a pretty savvy statistical game, and I definitely like our chances with his model, more so than with yours. Huggins' boys seemed to be dialed in, but it is a long, grueling season. Let's hope our guys can rise to the challenge, one game at a time ... one possession at a time!
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- CorpusJayhawk
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7 years 10 months ago #10113
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
Newton, Just to be clear, these are not "my numbers". This is an algorithm designed with the cumulative knowledge of my understanding of statistics, college basketball and measurable attributes that can be predictive in quasi determinative way. I did not develop the algorithm with KU or any other school in mind. It is purely developed as a "pure predictor" model. So the numbers are what they are. Things like blowouts of cupcakes and generally weak schedules are all fully considered in the algorithm. It is a highly complex and iterative multi-variable interdependent neural algorithm. Last season in it's first year it competed against all the big boys and finished in the top 40%. I fully intend ot to be superior to Sagarin and any other. Will I achieve that? Only time will tell. So you can not like that fact that it does not project KU as highly as Sagarin and I don't like that either. But the uncertainty at this point is something that would probably glass over most eyes but given the uncertainty KU certainly has plenty of possibilities to reign again. But the probabilities as of the data input thus far make it an uphill climb.
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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- newtonhawk
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7 years 10 months ago #10126
by newtonhawk
Thanks for the clarification. My reference to "your nunbers" was more of a reference to you being the poster and also that it is a reflection of your understanding of statistics. I am not even close to being a statistical novice, but I do get the fact that numbers can tell us lots of things and I totally respect those of you who have the interest to run the numbers as you do. In any case, here's hoping that KU is able to bust the numbers and bring home #13.
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