predictions for UNLV game

By now you've heard that Azubuike is out for the season.  I'll miss his
dunks and blocks.  I won't miss his charities, however.  It means more
minutes for Lucas, Bragg, Lightfoot, and Coleby and probably a lot more
of the four-guard line-up than previously expected.  Most unfortunate.

So Bragg didn't exactly have a monster game against Davidson, but he was
okay.  So was Lucas.  Interesting to see Lightfoot off the bench before
Bragg, however.  Maybe it was just situational, or maybe it was a reward
for a good week of practice for Lightfoot.  Let's see if the order off
the bench is the same for the game at UNLV.  First true road game of the
season for Kansas.  Just in time to tune up for a road game to start off
the conference slate at TCU.  But let's take them one game at a time.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 19.6 point margin, with a 95.9 percent
probability of winning the game.  The two teams have been averaging
152 total points, so the suggested final score would be Kansas 86,
UNLV 66.  Kansas has been playing 1.2 points above expectation, while
the Runnin' Rebels have been playing 0.9 points below expectation, which
would increase the margin to 21.7 points.  Kansas is way more consistent
than UNLV.  The Indiana game still represents the most below expectation
game of the season for Kansas, and those 7 points aren't anywhere close
to being enough to lose today's game.  Meanwhile, UNLV did play more than
20 points above expectation once, against #335 Northern Arizona, which
represents an 8 percent chance that UNLV could win the game.  Average
that with the Jayhawks' zero percent chance of losing, and you get a
96 percent chance of Kansas winning, which is reasonably consistent
with the probability you get from the Sagarin Predictor ratings.
Kansas still has a positive trend of some statistical significance,
while UNLV has a slightly negative trend with no statistical
significance.  Both teams have negative mental toughness ratings,
which works in Kansas' favor when playing weaker teams, as well as
working against UNLV when playing stronger teams (the Runnin' Rebels
played almost 29 points below expectation against Duke).  Taken at
face value, the margin would increase to 27.2 points for Kansas.
The new Sagarin "offense-defense" method puts the margin at 24.3 points
and the final score at Kansas 92, UNLV 68.

Massey gives Kansas a 20.0 point margin, with a 95 percent
probability of winning the game.  His projected final score
is Kansas 87, UNLV 67.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 18.3 units, as
well as the better adjusted defense by 11.1 units, which combine to
an advantage of 29.4 units for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is
72.0, which translates into a 21.2 point advantage for Kansas.  But we
need to deduct the home court advantage, which Sagarin has currently
pegged at 3.1 points.  That makes the margin just 18.1 points and the
predicted final score Kansas 84, UNLV 66.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 22.5 point margin, with a Vegas implied
final score of Kansas 87.5 (you pick the rounding), UNLV 65.  Among
the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven of the eight
categories; UNLV attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.
Perhaps just as well, considering how poorly Kansas has been shooting
charities (which is counterintuitive, considering how well they shoot
the trey).  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in six out of seven categories, with UNLV committing fewer personal
fouls per game.  Fine by me, as that would send fewer Jayhawks to the
stripe to miss charities.

Dunkel gives Kansas just an 11.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas
line is at 20.0 points, so he is picking UNLV against the spread.  His
total points is 166, suggesting a final score of Kansas 88.5, UNLV 77.5
(you pick the roundings).  Meanwhile, Vegas calls for 153.5 total points,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 87, UNLV 67.  Dunkel's small margin
must have something to do with this being the first true road game for
Kansas.

Real Time's web site has not been responding, nor do I intend to wait any
longer for it to reappear, especially considering how Real Time has
historically been among the least accurate of the various prognosticators
plus the inconsistency in predictions between his two pages for each
team.

Collegiate Basketball News is now doing the RPI for this season.  Last
season's Jayhawk killer, Villanova, is still in the #1 spot with Baylor
at to #2.  Kentucky and Duke are #9 and #10.  Third place in the Big 12
belongs to TCU at #23.

Dolphin isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.  But he usually appears right
around when the teams become connected, so if he's going to come on
board for this season, it should be Real Soon Now.

Don Davis gives Kansas a 20.6 point margin and a 91.6 percent probability
of winning the game.  The suggested final score is Kansas 86, UNLV 66,
with the rounding not in the Jayhawks' favor.

Colley is now on board with this season.  He only does rankings, not
game predictions.  However, let's try using the same scaling trick that
I use for Whitlock.  Colley has Villanova at #1 with a power rating of
1.052490, and Alabama A&M as #351 with a power rating of -0.011020, for
a difference from top to bottom of 1.06351 units.  Meanwhile, Sagarin
gives Villanova a Predictor rating of 93.30 points and Alabama A&M a
rating of 48.39 points, for a difference of 44.91 points.  Once again,
Villanova is not Sagarin's #1 team, so we're not seeing the full range
of Sagarin's power ratings, but it's close and it's what I ultimately
used for scaling Whitlock, so let's stick with it.  The scaling would
then be 42.23 points per unit.  The difference between Colley's power
ratings for Kansas and UNLV is 0.457359, which scales to 19.3 points,
minus Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage, or a 16.2 point margin
for Kansas.

Although Whitlock came on board for this season prior to the Davidson
game, his web site is currently not responding, so no margin to
extract from the Whitlock power ratings.  (That's one reason for trying
to use Colley's ratings.)

ESPN isn't on board with its BPI this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.  Like Dolphin, the BPI for this
season should be appearing soon.

The LRMC isn't available for this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.  LRMC usually shows up around the
time of the NCAA Tournament.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas just a 10.0 point margin with an 82 percent
probability of winning the game.  The suggested final score is
Kansas 81, UNLV 71.  Once again, perhaps the small margin is due to this
games being Kansas' first true road game of the season.

Crotistics has a difference of 18.81 points between Kansas and UNLV,
from which we need to subtract 3.5 points for the home court advantage,
plus an additional 0.77 points for the team-specific home advantage,
leaving Kansas with a 14.5 point margin.

There is one common opponent, namely Duke:

KU    +2 Duke neutral ( +2 neutral court)
UNLV -49 Duke at home (-53 neutral court)
KU   +51 UNLV on road (+55 neutral court)

That's the most lopsided of the various prognostications.  Of course,
UNLV played their worst game of the season against Duke, almost 29
points below expectation, while Kansas played almost 3 points above
expectation against Duke.  I wonder how UNLV managed to secure
home games against both Duke and Kansas in the same season?

Players to watch:  Guard Jaylen Poyser plays the most minutes, scores
the most points, dishes the most assists, but also commits the most
turnovers; forward Dwayne Morgan grabs the most rebounds and blocks
the most shots, but also commits the most personal fouls, however, he
would appear to be unavailable for this game due to a shoulder injury;
guard Uche Ofoegbu is their leading thief; forward Christian Jones
plays the second-most minutes, but missed the last three games due to
an ankle injury, however, he is expected to play.  It looks like, on
balance, UNLV has it worse with injuries than Kansas does with Udoka
out for this game, and likely the rest of the season.

So, the various prognostications range from 10 points at the low end
to 51 points at the high end, with the average being 20.7 points.
That would make it Kansas 86, UNLV 66.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  7   # 65   #  7   #  5   #  5   +1.2    6.7   +0.73 +/- 0.63   -0.33 +/- 0.20
UNLV           #174   #319   #176   #171   #172   -0.9   14.5   -0.09 +/- 1.27   -0.74 +/- 0.30
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  2  #  6   #  6   # 68   #  3  #  4    #  6    #      #      #  6   # 39
UNLV           #176  #202   #187   #317   #164  #196    #174    #      #      #220   #281
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         # (1)  # (1)  # (2)  # (2)  # (1)  # (1)  # (1)          10-1     #  9  #   
UNLV           #(126) #(126) #(125) #(142) #(149) #(123) #(126)          7-5     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  6  # 24    #  5  #  9    # (5) #       # (1) #       #  1  #  9    #  5  # 12
UNLV           #174  #285    #     #       #(108)#       #(103)#       #152  #182    #187  #135

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 25-6;
we're back up to four more projected losses; the consecutive road games at
West Virginia and Kentucky have been steady as two-possession loss margins,
while two toss-ups keep flipping their signs.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 14 Indiana                     99 103    +3.13    -7.13
NEUT   #  5 Duke                        77  75    -0.67    +2.67
HOME   #150 Siena                       86  65   +24.09    -3.09
HOME   #135 UAB                         83  63   +23.24    -3.24
HOME   # 50 Georgia                     65  54   +14.31    -3.31
HOME   #153 NC Asheville                95  57   +24.53   +13.47
HOME   #174 Long Beach State            91  61   +25.74    +4.26
HOME   # 71 Stanford                    89  74   +16.80    -1.80
HOME   #251 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +30.54   +12.46
HOME   #100 Nebraska                    89  72   +20.10    -3.10
HOME   # 62 Davidson                    89  71   +15.98    +2.02
AWAY   #176 UNLV                                 +19.62             0.959
AWAY   # 35 TCU                                   +5.61             0.773
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                         +13.33             0.971
HOME   # 31 Texas Tech                           +10.71             0.923
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma                              +8.41             0.848
HOME   # 29 Oklahoma State                       +10.33             0.796
AWAY   # 18 Iowa State                            +1.37             0.543
HOME   # 58 Texas                                +15.35             0.953
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia                         -6.41             0.285
AWAY   #  4 Kentucky                              -4.06             0.329
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +5.96             0.786
HOME   # 18 Iowa State                            +7.57             0.725
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                          +7.13             0.845
AWAY   # 31 Texas Tech                            +4.51             0.726
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                         -0.21             0.493
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                -0.24             0.487
HOME   # 35 TCU                                  +11.81             0.942
AWAY   # 58 Texas                                 +9.15             0.842
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma                             +14.61             0.963
AWAY   # 29 Oklahoma State                        +4.13             0.630

Here is UNLV's season to date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #221 South Alabama               68  76    +5.67   -13.67
HOME   #319 UC Riverside                74  62   +13.15    -1.15
HOME   #294 CS Fullerton                77  68   +10.50    -1.50
HOME   #335 Northern Arizona           110  71   +15.73   +23.27
HOME   # 35 TCU                         59  63   -10.91    +6.91
HOME   #229 Western Kentucky            71  61    +6.11    +3.89
AWAY   #326 Southern Utah               89  81    +8.45    -0.45
AWAY   #134 Arizona State               73  97    -6.03   -17.97
HOME   #  5 Duke                        45  94   -20.29   -28.71
HOME   #279 Incarnate Word              92  64    +9.51   +18.49
NEUT   # 27 Oregon                      63  83   -15.96    -4.04
HOME   #168 Southern Illinois           68  61    +2.53    +4.47
HOME   #  7 Kansas                               -19.62             0.041