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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Tracking KUMBB's Winningest Coaches Rankings
- HawkErrant
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7 years 11 months ago - 7 years 11 months ago #9991
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
As I noted in
an earlier post,
with a very successful regular and postseason run this year, BIll Self can pass Roy Williams for second place in the All-Time WInningest KUMBB coaches rankings.
As of 2016-12-18,
HCBS needs 24 more wins to pass RW, and there are
20 Regular season games left,
3 Big 12 Tournament wins possible, and
6 NCAA Tournament wins possible.
As also noted in the earlier post linked above, if KU can make the Final Four this year, Self will be one short of tying RW for most FF appearances at KU. He could then tie Roy -- in the same 15 year time frame -- with another FF run next season! Phog only had 3 FF appearances in the 18 years -- 1939 to 1956 -- he had a chance to get KU there. Of course, while RW had 4 FF appearances in 15 years, Phog actually won an NCAA title (1952) during his KU career and made the title game every time his team made the FF (1940, 1952, 1953). RW-s teams only made the title game twice in his 4 FF appearances, and he never won it all, so...
As of 2016-12-18,
HCBS needs 24 more wins to pass RW, and there are
20 Regular season games left,
3 Big 12 Tournament wins possible, and
6 NCAA Tournament wins possible.
TOP 3 WINNINGEST COACHES IN KUMBB HISTORY
WON-LOST HEAD COACH (W-L%) Self's Projected Pass Year*
590-219 Phog Allen (.729) 2023?
418-101 Roy Williams (.805) 2017?
395- 84 Bill Self (.825)
*The "Passing Phog" projection assumes KU averages 30 wins a year from the 2016-17 season on.
(31-6 is the average W-L record for Self KUMBB teams over last 10 seasons [2007 thru 2016])As also noted in the earlier post linked above, if KU can make the Final Four this year, Self will be one short of tying RW for most FF appearances at KU. He could then tie Roy -- in the same 15 year time frame -- with another FF run next season! Phog only had 3 FF appearances in the 18 years -- 1939 to 1956 -- he had a chance to get KU there. Of course, while RW had 4 FF appearances in 15 years, Phog actually won an NCAA title (1952) during his KU career and made the title game every time his team made the FF (1940, 1952, 1953). RW-s teams only made the title game twice in his 4 FF appearances, and he never won it all, so...
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Last Edit: 7 years 11 months ago by HawkErrant.
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- NotOstertag
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7 years 11 months ago #9993
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
500 wins at any one school puts you in pretty elite company no matter what. Self will hit that in 3-4 years. To get past Phog's 590 and to surpass the 600 mark will take a minimum of at LEAST another 3 years, more likely 4. Here's what that looks like:
Now: 395 wins.
End of this season: low 400's
500: at least 3 years, maybe 4 (2020 - 2012)
600: at least 3 MORE years, maybe as long as 5 (2023 - 2025)
Self is going to turn 54 next week, so that puts him at 57 when he's at 500, 60-62 to hit 600.
Assuming that Self doesn't bolt for the NBA (not likely but possible) or another college job (even less likely), he'll certainly be young enough to get to 600 at KU without being aged out of the job. That also puts 800 total wins in his crosshairs, and if he can go into his late 60's he could potentially get 1000 wins (total career).
Obviously, the longer out in time these projections go, the more variables come into play that could derail him.
Nevertheless, if 13 years ago, we knew that this dude from Illinois was going to have an .825 record between then and now, and average just shy of 30 wins per season, I don't think anybody would have believed it.
If I were to place some bets, here's where I'd put my money:
400: sure thing. Bet the house (if anybody is dumb enough to take the bet)
500: Solid money. Probably an 85% chance that this will happen. Higher if you could eliminate left-field variables like health, or completely unanticipated tragedies.
600: 50/50: if Self WANTS this he can get it. But 10 years is a long time and the variables start to stack up.
1000 (career): 50/50. On the upside, he can hit 1000 even if he's no longer at KU, which eliminates one of the variables. On the downside, he's got to get another 400 wins, which is at minimum another 12 years which puts him at at least 66 years, but might take him until 70. In that regard, it all comes down to how long he wants to stay in coaching vs. retirement.
Now: 395 wins.
End of this season: low 400's
500: at least 3 years, maybe 4 (2020 - 2012)
600: at least 3 MORE years, maybe as long as 5 (2023 - 2025)
Self is going to turn 54 next week, so that puts him at 57 when he's at 500, 60-62 to hit 600.
Assuming that Self doesn't bolt for the NBA (not likely but possible) or another college job (even less likely), he'll certainly be young enough to get to 600 at KU without being aged out of the job. That also puts 800 total wins in his crosshairs, and if he can go into his late 60's he could potentially get 1000 wins (total career).
Obviously, the longer out in time these projections go, the more variables come into play that could derail him.
Nevertheless, if 13 years ago, we knew that this dude from Illinois was going to have an .825 record between then and now, and average just shy of 30 wins per season, I don't think anybody would have believed it.
If I were to place some bets, here's where I'd put my money:
400: sure thing. Bet the house (if anybody is dumb enough to take the bet)
500: Solid money. Probably an 85% chance that this will happen. Higher if you could eliminate left-field variables like health, or completely unanticipated tragedies.
600: 50/50: if Self WANTS this he can get it. But 10 years is a long time and the variables start to stack up.
1000 (career): 50/50. On the upside, he can hit 1000 even if he's no longer at KU, which eliminates one of the variables. On the downside, he's got to get another 400 wins, which is at minimum another 12 years which puts him at at least 66 years, but might take him until 70. In that regard, it all comes down to how long he wants to stay in coaching vs. retirement.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, Bayhawk
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