predictions for Nebraska game

With the exception of the UNLV game, every remaining opponent is in
the Sagarin Top 100.  The Big 12 is looking every bit as strong as
it did last season, despite the loss of several high profile players.
Echoing Fraschilla once again, if Kansas is expected to play five
games worse than you are, you'd like to save those for the weaker
opponents so you don't pick up losses in the process.  Meanwhile, it
looks like the Jayhawks have played two games better than they are,
but did so against weaker opponents, when they didn't need to and
still win the game.  Oh well.  The season projection still calls for
five more losses, though only the consecutive road games with West
Virginia and Kentucky are projected losses.  The other three would
arise from statistical fluctuations, and there are three toss-up
games that are likely candidates.  Hey Missouri!  Guess who Kansas
is playing today?

Sagarin gives Kansas a 19.0 point margin, with a 97.2 percent
probability of winning the game.  Nebraska has played decidedly
low-scoring games, with 83 points being the most scored by the
winner in any of their games.  The average of the Kansas and
Nebraska total points suggests 145 total points for today's game,
with a final score of Kansas 82, Nebraska 63.  Both teams are
performing above expectation, though Kansas has the edge by almost
a point.  Both teams are also more consistent than the national
average, Nebraska moreso than Kansas, but that makes it even harder
for the Huskers to overcome the margin.  Nebraska has yet to play a
game anywhere close to more than 19 points above expectation, and
Kansas has yet to play a game anywhere close to more than 19 points
below expectation, so for Kansas to lose today's game would take
quite an aberration.  Kansas has a positive trend, thanks to strong
recent performances against Asheville and UMKC, while Nebraska has
a negative trend, thanks to poor recent performances against
Virginia Tech and Creighton.  Both teams have negative mental
toughness ratings, though Nebraska's is statistically insignificant.
You can get a negative rating by either playing poorly against the
toughest competition, or playing really well against the weaker
opponents.  For Kansas, it's the latter that has produced the
negative rating.  Taken at face value, the trend and mental
toughness ratings imply a margin of 25.6 points.  The new Sagarin
"offense-defense" method puts the margin at 19.4 points and the
final score at Kansas 79, Nebraska 60.

Massey gives Kansas an 18.0 point margin, with a 94 percent
probability of winning the game.  His projected final score
is Kansas 79, Nebraska 61.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 15.6 units, as
well as the better adjusted defense by 4.5 units, which combine to
an advantage of 20.1 units for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is
70.2, which translates into a 14.1 point advantage for Kansas and a
predicted final score of Kansas 78, Nebraska 64.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 19.5 point margin, with a Vegas implied
final score of Kansas 81, Nebraska 61.  Among the key offensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in seven of eight categories; Nebraska has an
ever-so-slight edge in turnover percentage.  Among the key defensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in five out of seven categories, with
Nebraska holding opponents to fewer points per game and committing
fewer personal fouls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 22.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas
line is at 19.5 points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.
His total points is 133, suggesting a final score of Kansas 77.5,
Nebraska 55.5 (you pick the roundings).  Meanwhile, Vegas calls for
142 total points, suggesting a final score of Kansas 81, Nebraska 61,
matching Greenfield, as is often the case.

Real Time gives Kansas a whopping 27.0 point margin with a final score
of Kansas 88, Nebraska 61.  That is, unless you also click on the Scouting
link, where the margin is 25 points, the probability of victory is 95.2
percent, and the final score is Kansas 90, Nebraska 65.

Collegiate Basketball News is now doing the RPI for this season.
Baylor is #1 with a strength of schedule that ranks #11.  TCU dropped
to #15 with a strength of schedule way down to #52.

Dolphin isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Don Davis gives Kansas a 17.8 point margin with an 88.3 percent
probability of winning the game.

Colley is now on board with this season.  He only does rankings, not
game predictions.  Finally he has Kansas ahead of TCU.  Baylor is still
his #1 team.

Whitlock isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

ESPN isn't on board with its BPI this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

The LRMC isn't available for this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 16.0 point margin with a 92 percent
probability of winning the game.  The suggested final score is
Kansas 81, Nebraska 65.

Crotistics is now on board for this season.  He gives Kansas a 12.5 point
margin.

There are no common opponents.

Players to watch:  Guard Tai Webster plays the most minutes, scores the
most points, dishes the most assists, but also commits the most personal
fouls; forward Edward Morrow grabs the most rebounds, but also commits
the most turnovers; guard Glynn Watson Jr. is their leading thief;
foward Michael Jacobson blocks the most shots.

The average of the various prognostications is 19.6 points in favor of
Kansas.  Make it Kansas 83, Nebraska 63.  The intangibles include how
the team will react to Bragg not being available.  The inside game
hasn't been a serious factor, so his absence may not matter much, unless
the bigs get into foul trouble.  But we have Lucas, Azubuike, Coleby,
and Lightfoot available.  That's 20 fouls available.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  4   # 63   #  5   #  5   #  5   +1.6    8.2   +1.91 +/- 0.87   -0.43 +/- 0.27
Nebraska       # 84   # 12   # 83   # 87   # 87   +0.8    6.3   -1.15 +/- 0.94   -0.01 +/- 0.22
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  3  #  5   #  5   # 61   #  2  #  4    #  5    #  1   #  6   #  9   # 30
Nebraska       # 76  # 26   # 83   # 22   # 86  # 32    # 72    #121   # 15   # 61   #  4
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         # (1)  # (1)  # (2)  # (2)  # (1)  # (1)  # (1)           8-1     #     #   
Nebraska       #(114) #(114) #(78)  #(152) #(164) #(155) #(207)          5-4     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  9  # 35    # (1) #       # (5) #       # (1) #       #  2  # 19    # 11  # 16
Nebraska       #100  #  8    #(95) #       #(100)#       #(82) #       # 85  # 28    # 69  #  8

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 19 Indiana                     99 103    +4.92    -8.92
NEUT   #  6 Duke                        77  75    +0.25    +1.75
HOME   #150 Siena                       86  65   +24.55    -3.55
HOME   #111 UAB                         83  63   +21.31    -1.31
HOME   # 58 Georgia                     65  54   +16.25    -5.25
HOME   #133 NC Asheville                95  57   +23.10   +14.90
HOME   #185 Long Beach State            91  61   +26.78    +3.22
HOME   # 55 Stanford                    89  74   +15.77    -0.77
HOME   #209 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +28.83   +14.17
HOME   # 83 Nebraska                             +19.01             0.972
HOME   # 59 Davidson                             +16.57             0.956
AWAY   #166 UNLV                                 +19.35             0.977
AWAY   # 48 TCU                                   +8.12             0.825
HOME   # 47 Kansas State                         +14.41             0.963
HOME   # 27 Texas Tech                           +11.10             0.915
AWAY   # 43 Oklahoma                              +7.49             0.781
HOME   # 35 Oklahoma State                       +12.41             0.914
AWAY   # 16 Iowa State                            +0.66             0.533
HOME   # 66 Texas                                +17.09             0.956
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia                         -6.27             0.259
AWAY   #  3 Kentucky                              -3.49             0.360
HOME   # 13 Baylor                                +6.62             0.747
HOME   # 16 Iowa State                            +7.00             0.810
AWAY   # 47 Kansas State                          +8.07             0.841
AWAY   # 27 Texas Tech                            +4.76             0.722
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                         +0.07             0.503
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                                +0.28             0.511
HOME   # 48 TCU                                  +14.46             0.952
AWAY   # 66 Texas                                +10.75             0.859
HOME   # 43 Oklahoma                             +13.83             0.924
AWAY   # 35 Oklahoma State                        +6.07             0.748

Here is Nebraska's season to date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #331 Sacramento State            83  61   +22.75    -0.75
Div2        University of Mary          70  38
HOME   # 81 Louisiana Tech              65  54    +2.85    +8.15
NEUT   # 41 Dayton                      80  78    -5.38    +7.38
NEUT   # 14 UCLA                        71  82   -12.36    +1.36
NEUT   # 51 Virginia Tech               53  66    -3.89    -9.11
AWAY   # 49 Clemson                     58  60    -7.45    +5.45
HOME   #191 South Dakota                73  61   +11.45    +0.55
HOME   # 17 Creighton                   62  77    -8.23    -6.77
AWAY   #  5 Kansas                               -19.01             0.005