predictions for Stanford game

I'm told it wasn't Fraschilla who originated it, but he's the first
one I've heard it from, namely a layman's way of explaining some
simple statistics:  you play five games better than you are, five
games worse than you are, and the other twenty games are who you
are.  So far, Kansas has played six games within 8 points of
expectation and one game 14 points above expectation.  I suspect
that the Asheville game counts as one of the "better than you are"
games, and none so far count as a "worse than you are" game.  Let's
hope one of those "worse than you are" games doesn't happen today,
because Stanford is good enough to overcome the predicted margin.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 14.8 point margin, with a 96.7 percent
probability of winning the game.  Stanford started out as a
relatively high-scoring team in its first two games.  Since then,
the Cardinal haven't scored more than 67 points, and also haven't
given up more than 67 points.  The two teams average just 140 total
points, suggesting a final score of Kansas 78, Stanford 63.  Both
teams are slightly underrated by almost identical amounts, so that
statistic is pretty much a wash.  Both teams are also more consistent
than the national average, with Kansas being a bit more than 1.6 points
more consistent than Stanford.  The Cardinal have played above or below
expectation by double digits three times, while that has happened to
the Jayhawks only once.  Stanford's best game came against Seton Hall,
when they played 14.4 points above expectation; a repeat performance
wouldn't be quite enough to overcome the predicted margin for today's
game.  And Kansas' worst effort so far came in the opener against
Indiana, when the Jayhawks played almost 8 points below expectation.
It would take their worst game of the season so far to lose today's
game.  Kansas is showing a positive trend with some statistical
significance, but take away the Asheville result and that would
vanish; I wouldn't put a lot of stock in that one result.  Meanwhile,
Stanford shows a negative trend, but it is not statistically
significant.  Both teams have negative mental toughness ratings,
with Stanford's showing some statistical significance, courtesy of
below expectation performances against their two toughest opponents,
namely Miami and St. Mary's.  Taken at face value these factors
would increase the margin for Kansas to 26.4 points.  The new
Sagarin "offense-defense" method has the margin as 14.3 points, with
a projected final score of Kansas 73, Stanford 59.

Massey gives Kansas a 19.0 point margin, with a 94 percent
probability of winning the game.  His projected final score
is Kansas 78, Stanford 59.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 13.9 units, as
well as the better adjusted defense by 3.5 units, which combine to
an advantage of 17.4 units for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is
70.4, which translates into a 12.3 point advantage for Kansas and a
predicted final score of Kansas 76, Stanford 64.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 16.0 point margin with 136.5 total points,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 76, Stanford 60.  Among the key
offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all but free throw attempts
per field goal attempt (perhaps just as well, considering how badly the
Jayhawks have been shooting charities).  Among the key defensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in four out of seven categories; Stanford holds
opponents to fewer points per game, a slightly lower effective field
goal percentage, and commits fewer personal fouls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas just a 9.5 point margin and claims that a Vegas line
is at 17 points, so he's picking Stanford against the spread.  His total
points is 139, suggesting a final score of Kansas 74, Stanford 65, whereas
the Vegas total is 137.5, suggesting a final score of Kansas 77, Stanford 60.

Real Time gives Kansas a 19.0 point margin with a final score of
Kansas 89, Stanford 70.  That is, unless you also click on the Scouting
link, where the margin is 22 points, the probability of victory is 91.0
percent, and the final score is Kansas 90, Stanford 68.

Collegiate Basketball News is now doing the RPI for this season.
Baylor is #2 with a strength of schedule that ranks #25, and
today they're playing #3 Xavier.  TCU at #9 is also ahead of Kansas.

Dolphin isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

The latest schedule projection that Don Davis sent me has Kansas with
a 13.8 point margin and a final score of Kansas 77, Stanford 63.

Colley is now on board with this season.  He only does rankings, not
game predictions.  His rankings are, shall we say, a bit unusual at
this stage.  For example, he has TCU ranked ahead of Kansas.  Oh well,
so does the RPI.

Whitlock isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

ESPN isn't on board with its BPI this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

The LRMC isn't available for this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 12.0 point margin with a 90 percent
probability of winning the game.  The suggested final score is
Kansas 76, Stanford 64.

The Crotistics web site is back!  But it's still stuck on last season.

There are no common opponents.

Players to watch:  Guard Dorian Pickens plays the most minutes, but leads
the Cardinal only in turnovers; forward Reid Travis (sounds backwards)
scores the most points and grabs the most rebounds; guard Robert Cartwright
is their leading thief; guard Christian Sanders dishes the most assists;
forward Michael Humphrey commits the most personal fouls.

The average of the various prognostications is 15.8 points in favor of
Kansas.  Make it Kansas 78, Stanford 62.  Those first two games that
Stanford played persuade me to think the total will be a little higher
than 140.  As for the margin, I doubt that Self will run up the score
on Jerod Haase, so I'm not persuaded to make the margin any larger than
16 points.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   # 53   #  6   #  6   #  6   +0.7    7.2   +2.04 +/- 1.18   -0.25 +/- 0.28
Stanford       # 56   # 73   # 59   # 52   # 49   +0.8    8.8   -1.06 +/- 1.41   -0.58 +/- 0.38
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  5  #  7   #  6   # 47   #  4  #  2    #  5    #  1   # 13   # 22   # 60
Stanford       # 62  # 45   # 68   # 97   # 58  # 41    # 72    # 75   # 18   # 74   #125
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         # (1)  # (1)  # (2)  # (2)  # (1)  # (1)  # (1)           6-1     #     #   
Stanford       #(85)  #(85)  #(101) #(90)  #(88)  #(146) #(86)           6-2     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         # 24  # 60    # (1) #       # (5) #       # (1) #       #  5  # 19    # (1) #   
Stanford       # 40  #233    #(92) #       #(94) #       #(130)#       # 27  # 44    #(113)#   

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 25-6;
projected losses at Iowa State (barely), at West Virginia, and at Kentucky;
projected double-digit wins until the first conference game, then lots of
nail-biters:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 18 Indiana                     99 103    +3.88    -7.88
NEUT   #  5 Duke                        77  75    -0.74    +2.74
HOME   #153 Siena                       86  65   +24.06    -3.06
HOME   #115 UAB                         83  63   +20.90    -0.90
HOME   # 61 Georgia                     65  54   +15.10    -4.10
HOME   #148 NC Asheville                95  57   +23.76   +14.24
HOME   #192 Long Beach State            91  61   +26.13    +3.87
HOME   # 59 Stanford                             +14.82             0.967
HOME   #194 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +26.17             0.998
HOME   # 77 Nebraska                             +17.51             0.970
HOME   # 53 Davidson                             +14.35             0.939
AWAY   #132 UNLV                                 +16.20             0.959
AWAY   # 43 TCU                                   +6.56             0.787
HOME   # 50 Kansas State                         +14.06             0.968
HOME   # 30 Texas Tech                           +10.67             0.920
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma                              +6.44             0.757
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma State                       +11.67             0.912
AWAY   # 11 Iowa State                            -0.52             0.472
HOME   # 74 Texas                                +16.90             0.961
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia                         -5.17             0.290
AWAY   #  3 Kentucky                              -5.00             0.297
HOME   # 13 Baylor                                +6.22             0.742
HOME   # 11 Iowa State                            +5.66             0.775
AWAY   # 50 Kansas State                          +7.88             0.850
AWAY   # 30 Texas Tech                            +4.49             0.723
HOME   #  2 West Virginia                         +1.01             0.543
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                                +0.04             0.502
HOME   # 43 TCU                                  +12.74             0.939
AWAY   # 74 Texas                                +10.72             0.868
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma                             +12.62             0.914
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma State                        +5.49             0.737

Here is Stanford's season to date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #180 Harvard                     80  70   +10.57    -0.57
HOME   #230 CS Northridge               96  69   +16.69   +10.31
HOME   #161 Weber State                 67  49   +12.63    +5.37
HOME   # 95 Colorado State              56  49    +7.62    -0.62
NEUT   # 26 Miami-Florida               53  67    -5.76    -8.24
NEUT   #114 Indiana State               65  62    +6.06    -3.06
NEUT   # 54 Seton Hall                  66  52    -0.35   +14.35
HOME   # 24 Saint Mary's-Cal.           51  66    -3.57   -11.43
AWAY   #  6 Kansas                               -14.82             0.037