Big 12 streak in Jeopardy?

As of games through 12/1, KU is ranked 19th in the DPPI which is good for 3rd in the Big 12 (West Virginia is ranked 1st and Baylor is ranked 12th). Texas has fallen to an embarrassing 194th but the other 9 Big 12 teams are all ranked in the top 47. You can see below, if this all holds to form, KU will finish 3rd in the Big 12 with a record of 12-6. This looks to be the strongest Big 12, 1 through 9, in many years. It is early but the thing that has me alarmed is that KU has played well within a standard deviation in every game thus far except the Asheville game. In other words KU has been very consistently playing to their ranking. On the bright side, I think the assessment is that KU, while consistent thus far, actually does have great upside and expectation to be consistently better. But consider me officially on alert that this will not be a cake walk through to a 13th Big 12 title. I have not elevated to "alarmed" but if this does not change over the next 6 games, I will probably elevate.

Ken, you bring up leg image points. There is certainly no gaurantee that this team will get significant better. Having said that, I do believe they have a good chance of getting much better. To answer your question or at least to weigh in with my opinion here are some things to consider.
1. Ink is being spilled about what a phenom Josh Jackson is. I do not disagree that he may well be a phenom but in my opinion he has not played particularly well to this point. Sure, he has showed great promise in a number of ways but his actual play has been decent for the most part but nothing approaching great. And the things he has or has not done that is short of excellence are for the most part, things players tend to learn and get better. Things like spacing and positioning, anticipation (although he has shown some great flashes there), timing, scouting, knowing when to help the helper on defense, blocking out to name a few. I believe Josh will be a much better "team" contributor as the season goes on.
2. Will Lucas return to form? I don't know but it is clear he has been far short of his effectiveness last season. I honestly do not think he can be worse than he has been so the only options are he is cut out of the lineup or he improves. There is only upside here.
3. Vick has been a huge surprise. But like Josh, he has been spotty in his effectiveness. He did almost everything right in the last game against against UCLB. But against Asheville he made a number of mistakes. Basically his positioning for rebounding. He will be possibly the 4 man in the 4 guard lineup. I think he has shown he is well suited for that. But it is going to take him some more reps to play that role well. Knowing when, where and how to attack the glass. And maybe the biggest area for improvement as we utilize the 4 guard lineup is screening. We have actually done pretty well but we certainly have room for improvement.
4. Svi - Not sure we will see much different from Svi. But if he continues to get better on the boards that will be huge.
5. Bragg - There is no doubt that Bragg is a little lost right now. He has been pretty effective on defense but offensively he is a little lost. Will he "get it" befor the season ends. I don't know, but given the steady train of bigs that have come through this program and improved radically my bet i that he will get much much better,
6. Backcourt - I agree with you that Frank and Devonte' are playing at a high level and will most likely continue at this level. But the overall team performance around them is largely dependent on their ability to make it happen in a game. Getting to know the guys proclivities and tendencies and knowing when and how to adjust on the fly will get better.
7. Defense - Name a single KU defense over the Bill Self era that did not get significantly better over the season. There actually are one or two I think that you could argue fall into this category. But by and large, Self coached teams improve steadily on defense. This is a team that has significant minutes from freshmen or new players. I am willing to bet we will improve greatly on defense as the season goes on.

This is just a quick brain dump on my opinions. In general, barring injury, just about every Self coached team tended to improve. This team should be no different.

terrific thread guys. agree with the early concern and your assessment corpus. my view for what its worth is that the biggest upside for this team will come from just playing more together. the individual skill level is perhaps as good as its been since 2008 but both the coach and the players are essentially learning new systems both offensively and defensively given the players coach has chosen ( rightly in my view) to play. while it surely wont be a straight line ( and may put the big 12 championship at risk) by march i think we will be playing at a transcedent level. but what will really make us a much much better tournament team are two things: 1) i think we are 9 deep with players who arent afraid by virtue of experience and/ or attitude to be out there at crunch time- not sure weve had this kind of big game depth in the 60 yrs ive been watching; and, 2) we have not had this many shooters in a long time and as we know not being reliant on one or two guys to make that big shot in a big game is a huge advantage ( see villanove last yr). so while the stats analysis will say what it says as we know the close games will be determined by big shots and fearless players. i think we have both in abundance and am happy to go on record predicting at least a final four appearance. beyond that only fools go. and viv a vis the other thread re participation on this board i think we as a country are suffering a little clinical depression still from the election ( if not the result, certainly the pricess). when one is depressed the most common symptom is no longer enjoying the things one once enjoyed ( see nfl ratings this yr as but one example). hopefully all of our favorite posters will return as the mood and the natural cycle of human spirits strike them. i certainly hope so as i find this board and our shared passion massively life enhancing. RC

Landen has to regain his passion and confidence (Self said as much the other day--this isn't just some injury issue).

Indulge me on this chilly gray morning in a little armchair analysis. A decade or so back we had a tall (duh) ginger sharp shooter who didn't play much because of a non-physical illness. [Somebody who didn't destroy their brain in the '70's can recall the name for us.] Regarding our beloved Landen, peruse these symptoms of depression:

* Mood: anxiety, apathy, general discontent, guilt, hopelessness, loss of interest, loss of interest or pleasure in activities, mood swings, or sadness
* Sleep: early awakening, excess sleepiness, insomnia, or restless sleep
* Whole body: excessive hunger, fatigue, loss of appetite, or restlessness
* Behavioral: agitation, excessive crying, irritability, or social isolation
* Cognitive: lack of concentration, slowness in activity.

I don't know anymore than anyone else about him, but I hope the man is feeling better real soon for his own sake; or better yet, may I be completely wrong about his mental health.

RC

Are you thinking of Luke Axtell

Yes!
But I hope I'm wrong about Landen.

Meanwhile, thanks for the impending DPPI link,

RC

you may be right but i think its probably simpler than that. landon is a smart kid but hes not a natural athlete so his body is not so smart. he not only is learning to play without perry ( a dream post mate) but hes having to play as the only big with four guards. he wont be any good im afraid until he mentally paints footsteps on the floor for all the new situations that will arise ( this is also causing him to foul way too much on D). so now its a race between him and bragg and dok and coleby for who learns it fastest. im betting a bragg/ dok rotation because bragg is an athlete who can adjust and dok, well as they say you cant teach height. landon will be relegated to clean up/ high foul minutes with coleby. he deserves better but it is what it is.

Do any of you ever listen to sports talk radio? If you do, you know that one 'host' is scripted to say something so absurd that it creates controversy, which creates calls, which improves the ratings of the show. The hosts NEVER agree with each other, and there are enough people of differing opinions in their listening audience to keep those calls coming, as long as there is something to rant about. Perhaps we simply needed one or two posts that some of us might find a bit 'odd,' or perhaps 'lacking credibility,' or even find 'meritless.' Of course this doesn't happen often, because we are all so very astute and insightful, but once in a while an old reliable will post something that gets the juices flowing, mandating a response or two or more. One must be careful, though, not to attack the messenger, but the message? It's not protected, so here goes. I will approach this dissection with discretion and taste, but will, nonetheless, make my points.

First, as has been mentioned in this thread by one of our more astute and reliable posters, basketball is a team game, which by implication, requires 'teamwork' in order to be successful. Having a superstar does, of course, improve the likelihood of a team being successful, but only a team functioning as a 'team' is likely to achieve the ultimate goal, a national championship. So where is this team right now? If we are to believe one of our posters, pretty much where we will end up. His view is that there is not a lot of 'upside' here, and here are his reasons. "It is hard to say that the guards are going to get a great deal better." I would posit that seniors do improve, and I know that juniors improve, and if we consider that Josh Jackson is a guard, that he is absolutely going to improve by a lot. Vick? Absolutely. Svi? Almost certainly. He's only 19, and although he may seem 'old' by some standards, by college basketball standards he's a baby. And we must also remember that these guards are not playing 2 on 5. They require a group of players around them who understand the offense and defense that THEY understand, so they can play in synch. RIght now they are 2 experienced guys playing with novices, and that alone makes the likelihood of vast improvement almost a certainty. And just to make the point even more compellingly, can any of you recall any guards who got better during the course of a season, even a senior guard?

"Lucas is not showing signs of a great upside." It's actually hard to comment on this, but I will try. If Lucas merely returns to the player he was last year, especially the 2nd half of the season, he will improve this team dramatically. Will he? I think that the chances of a revived Lucas are greater than the benchwarmer we have seen so far. Whatever the reason or reasons for his regression, it it not likely to continue for the rest of the season.

"Bragg might have some, but how much is the question." MIGHT HAVE SOME? Whoa, we are entering the twilight zone with this comment. Bill Self has never had a talent like Bragg stagnate for an entire season unless the player was injured or lacked 'character.' Is Bragg going to get better? A lot better? I am absolutely certain of it. Self is too good a coach, and Bragg is too talented a player not to improve, and improve a lot.

"Coleby? I don't see it." I'd like to ask this prognosticator what he bases his opinion on? How many games has he seen Coleby play? How many minutes has Coleby played so far this season? I would posit (I like positing) that Coleby is a guy with a proven history of performance on a lousy team in a lousy league, as both a freshman and sophomore. He is coming off a major injury, so it will certainly take a while more before he's really fully recovered, but when he does recover, I expect that he will perform as well or better than any back up center in the Big 12. Would that constitute 'improvement?' I think so. And as he learns how to play with his teammates, and as they learn to play with him, all of them will 'improve.'

"So how much impact will that growth in Udoka and perhaps Bragg and Landon a bit really have. As I said, I think our guards are nearly fully baked and don't have a great deal of room for growth/upside. It is hard for me to see a dramatic level of improvement there. Everyone is already playing at a high level.

Help me out here. What am I missing in this team regarding potential upside?" Well, my friend, you are missing pretty much everything. Everyone is not "playing at a high level." Corpus has pointed that out several times, in several different way. Are they playing well enough to win every game? Pretty much. Do they have a lot of upside? HUGE upside. Every Bill Self team has improved dramatically over the course of the season. Roy's teams? Not so much. They were great in November, but not much better in March. Bill's problems have been almost entirely in the NCAAs, not the regular season, and that is a question for another time. This team is raw right now, and as the temperature of the competition increases, we will start to cook. I'd expect something in the 'medium rare' stage by the start of the Big 12 season, and by March we'll be well done. Hopefully there will be no injuries, and we can then fully expect a deep run given the incredible talent and depth we have.

And I agree with your sentiments. While I worry about Landen, it doesn't change your point.

Thanks for the post,

RC

Knock on wood that you are wrong on that and it does not seen that way to me. He is consistently called for ticky-tack fouls that he does not get the benefit of. That frustrates him and that makes the game not fun. I really believe as the season goes along and the refs get a little more adjusted to basketball he will do well. Some reason the refs like the way other bigs push him but do not like the way he pushes them. As for his lack of finishing at the rim I think the first part will take care of that.

And lots of posts surrounding today's game. I believe I'm the 13th post in this thread, which is the high number of posts (outside of the "Senex redux" thread). Hopefully more good commentary to come!

I think the key is as you started with at the top it is a team game. I know lot's of folks felt we should have played Diallo more last year but though he 1 on 1 was a better player than some of the guys getting those minutes the team was worse with him on the floor. I hope Mr. Diallo has a long and lucrative career but he did not make the team better as much as his talent could have. I think this years guys have shown such good intentions of trying to play the right way that as they get more comfortable with exactly what they should and should not try we have a long way to reach for our ceiling.

Here is why I think there is great room for improvement on this team. I do not believe Lucas has regressed like it appears so far. I think all of our bigs are adjusting to the way the game is being called this year. I am not sure why he is having trouble adjusting but I think he and Mr. Bragg will adjust. When our post play becomes good watch out.