predictions for Long Beach State game

So, Kansas beat Asheville by a fair bit more than expected.  Was that
simply a statistical fluctuation, or was Asheville overrated, or was
Kansas underrated, or was it due to the change in starting line-up,
or did the team really improve, or did the team have more energy from
not having to travel so much?  It's probably a combination of all
those factors.  Long Beach State is one of two remaining opponents
that is weaker than Asheville, so if the Jayhawks could blow out
Asheville by 38 points, it could be even more with the 49ers providing
the opposition.  Long Beach State has one thing going for them, namely
being battle-tested already.  Although they opened at home against a
Division II cupcake, their next three opponents are all ranked in the
Top 10, and the 49ers played all three games on the road.  Then came
another road game against a Top 20 opponent, followed by another road
game against a Top Tier opponent.  Losing to a Bottom Tier opponent
at a neutral site in their next game must have been disheartening,
but they took Gulf Coast to overtime in their most recent outing.
Perhaps the greatest danger is having the Jayhawks not take a 1-7
opponent seriously.

Sagarin's Sunday ratings give Kansas a 25.4 point margin, with a 99.7 percent
probability of winning the game.  Long Beach State games have had
an average total points slightly higher than Kansas games, such that
the predicted final score would be Kansas 90, Long Beach State 65.
The margins of victory for Kansas have averaged 0.2 points above
expectation, while those margins for Long Beach State have averaged
4.6 points below expectation, which could make the margin for today's
game up around 30.2 points.  Now that the number of games played is
creeping toward statistical significance, the inconsistency values
are starting to become more reasonable.  Kansas is showing a fair bit
more consistency than Long Beach State, with the most recent game
being the biggest outlier for Kansas.  The Jayhawks have yet to play
anywhere close to 26 points below expectation, so it would take a
meltdown of epic proportions to lose today's game.  Similarly, the
49ers have yet to play anywhere close to 26 points above expectation,
so a win for Long Beach State would be highly unlikely.  Both teams
have positive trends, though it's not statistically significant for
Long Beach State, and while it is formally statistically significant
for Kansas, one game does not make a trend, so take the numbers with
a grain of salt.  Beating up on a weaker team, as Kansas did to
Asheville, is a good way to make your mental toughness rating go
down, but the rating isn't statistically significant for either
team.  Taken at face value, however, the margin would decrease to
just 19.5 points.  Oh, and now that I've seen Sagarin's Monday ratings,
his "Offense-Defense" method puts the margin at 28.4 points, with a
final score of Kansas 95, Long Beach State 66.

Massey gives Kansas a 28.0 point margin, with a 98 percent
probability of winning the game.  His projected final score
is Kansas 91, Long Beach State 63.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 14.0 units, as
well as the better adjusted defense by 12.7 units, which combine to
an advantage of 26.7 units for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is
71.4, which translates into a 19.1 point advantage for Kansas and a
predicted final score of Kansas 82, Long Beach State 63.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 26.0 point margin with 149 total points,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 87.5, Long Beach State 61.5 (you
pick the roundings).  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in all eight categories.  Among the key defensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in all seven categories.  That's a rarity.
The main oddity is that Greenfield has Kansas with the #1 strength
of schedule and Long Beach State with the #32 strength of schedule.
With Indiana's surprising loss to Fort Wayne, the Hoosiers aren't in
the Top 20 (according to Sagarin) anymore, so Kansas has played just
one Top 20 team, whereas Long Beach State has played four Top 20
teams.  I'd have to agree with Sagarin's and Pomeroy's strength of
schedule ratings here.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 30.0 point margin and claims that a Vegas line
is at 25 points, so he's picking Kansas against the spread.  His
total points is 154, suggesting a final score of Kansas 92, Long
Beach State 62, whereas the Vegas total is 149, suggesting a final
score of Kansas 87, Long Beach State 62.

Real Time gives Kansas a 28.0 point margin with a final score of
Kansas 86, Long Beach State 58.  That is, unless you also click on
the Scouting link, where the margin is only 19 points, the probability
of victory is 84.5 percent, and the final score is Kansas 83, Long
Beach State 64.

Collegiate Basketball News is now doing the RPI for this season.
Seems a little earlier than usual.  Anyway, Kansas has the #20
strength of schedule compared to Long Beach State's #22.  Because
the RPI only looks at wins and losses, the 49ers' schedule doesn't
look quite as impressive as it does when looking at power rankings.

Dolphin isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

The latest schedule projection that Don Davis sent me has Kansas with
a 33.5 point margin and a final score of Kansas 94, Long Beach State 61.

Colley is now on board with this season.  He only does rankings, not
game predictions.  His rankings are, shall we say, a bit unusual at
this stage.  For example, he has TCU ranked ahead of Kansas.

Whitlock isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

ESPN isn't on board with its BPI this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

The LRMC isn't available for this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a whopping 55.0 point margin with a
100 percent probability of winning the game.  The suggested final
score is Kansas 105, Long Beach State 50.  Ouch.  Then again, Seven
Overtimes has the 49ers ranked #318 out of 351 teams.

The Crotistics web site is back!  But it's still stuck on last season.

There are no common opponents.

Players to watch:  Guard Justin Bibbins plays the most minutes, dishes
the most assists, is their leading thief, but also commits the most
turnovers; forward Gabe Levin scores the most points, grabs the most
rebounds, and blocks the most shots; forward Roschon Prince commits
the most personal fouls.  Looks pretty much like a two-man team;
control Bibbins and Levin, and you control the game.

The average of the various prognostications is 27.6 points in favor of
Kansas.  Make it Kansas 91, Long Beach State 64.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   # 35   #  7   #  7   #  9   +0.2    7.9   +2.63 +/- 1.65   -0.19 +/- 0.35
Long Beach St. #191   #  2   #189   #193   #227   -4.6   10.5   +1.41 +/- 2.08   +0.09 +/- 0.37
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  5  #  5   #  6   # 26   #  5  #  1    #  5    #  1   #  3   # 13   # 20
Long Beach St. #223  # 12   #165   #  1   #189  # 32    #208    #151   # 77   #214   # 22
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         # (1)  # (1)  # (2)  # (2)  # (1)  # (1)  # (1)           5-1     #     #   
Long Beach St. #(93)  #(94)  #(109) #(97)  #(84)  #(92)  #(97)           1-7     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         # 24  # 60    # (1) #       # (5) #       # (1) #       #  3  # 16    # (1) #   
Long Beach St. #314  #  8    #(109)#       #(107)#       #(105)#       #318  #  9    #(113)#   

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 24-7,
just barely rounding down to 24 wins, rather than rounding up to 25 wins
as it was previously; projected losses at Iowa State, at West Virginia,
and at Kentucky; projected double-digit wins until the first conference
game, then lots of nail-biters:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 21 Indiana                     99 103    +4.36    -8.36
NEUT   #  3 Duke                        77  75    -1.78    +3.78
HOME   #173 Siena                       86  65   +24.39    -3.39
HOME   #119 UAB                         83  63   +20.86    -0.86
HOME   # 63 Georgia                     65  54   +14.90    -3.90
HOME   #160 NC Asheville                95  57   +23.84   +14.16
HOME   #188 Long Beach State                     +25.38             0.997
HOME   # 51 Stanford                             +13.53             0.921
HOME   #191 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +25.86             0.997
HOME   # 87 Nebraska                             +17.91             0.969
HOME   # 64 Davidson                             +14.94             0.941
AWAY   #120 UNLV                                 +14.62             0.937
AWAY   # 48 TCU                                   +6.70             0.784
HOME   # 57 Kansas State                         +13.97             0.961
HOME   # 29 Texas Tech                           +10.26             0.902
AWAY   # 34 Oklahoma                              +4.98             0.699
HOME   # 35 Oklahoma State                       +11.49             0.901
AWAY   # 11 Iowa State                            -1.62             0.418
HOME   # 65 Texas                                +15.06             0.936
AWAY   #  4 West Virginia                         -4.19             0.331
AWAY   #  5 Kentucky                              -4.01             0.339
HOME   # 18 Baylor                                +6.82             0.756
HOME   # 11 Iowa State                            +4.62             0.723
AWAY   # 57 Kansas State                          +7.73             0.835
AWAY   # 29 Texas Tech                            +4.02             0.694
HOME   #  4 West Virginia                         +2.05             0.585
AWAY   # 18 Baylor                                +0.58             0.524
HOME   # 48 TCU                                  +12.94             0.935
AWAY   # 65 Texas                                 +8.82             0.814
HOME   # 34 Oklahoma                             +11.22             0.880
AWAY   # 35 Oklahoma State                        +5.25             0.721

Here is Long Beach State's season to date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
Div2        Cal State-Los Angeles       95  59
AWAY   #  9 Wichita State               55  92   -24.30   -12.70
AWAY   #  2 North Carolina              67  93   -28.34    +2.34
AWAY   #  6 Louisville                  56  88   -25.51    -6.49
AWAY   # 16 UCLA                        77 114   -21.73   -15.27
AWAY   # 62 Washington                  88  94   -13.69    +7.69
NEUT   #303 Binghamton-NY               64  72    +7.82   -15.82
AWAY   #103 Florida Gulf Coast          67  68    -8.88    +7.88
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                               -25.38             0.003