early predictions for NC Asheville game

So, Kansas walked off with the CBE Classic title.  But wait!  The
CBE Classic is not over!  We still have another game to play!
What???  It's just a loophole that allows teams to play more
games (and make more money from ticket sales and television
rights).  It used to be that the season was limited to 28 games,
but there were a handful of multi-game "exempt" tournaments like
the Maui Invitational, the Great Alaska Shootout, and so on, that
counted as only a single game against the 28 game limit.  But you
couldn't play in one of those exempt tournaments every year.  You
know, spread the wealth around.  Well, that "two in four" limit
was eliminated (and new tournaments have sprouted up all over the
place to handle the increased availabilty of teams).  The new rules
allow teams to play either 29 regular season games or 27 games plus
at most four games in a multi-team tournament.  You still can't
play in the same tournament more than once every four years, and
the tournament can accept only one team from a conference to avoid
potential matchups between teams from the same conference (with
loopholes for conflicts created by the signing of contracts and
subsequent conference realignment).  Post-season tournaments don't
count (conference, NIT, NCAA) against the limit.  So, three-game
tournaments like the Maui started to lose their appeal, because it
meant teams would have to give up two potential home games to
participate in the exempt tournamant and play just one more game
than would otherwise be the case.  Therefore most expanded to a
four-game format, with early-round games being played at campus
sites rather than at the tournament location.  The rules require
that the games be played within a two-week period.  So the Maui
now has one campus game followed by the three-game bracketed
tournament, while the CBE has two campus games and a two-game
bracketed mini-tournament.  I'm guessing that the two campus
CBE games would have normally been played before the two-game
mini-tournament, except that Kansas was also slated to play in
the Armed Forces and Champions Classics, which forced the odd
situation we have here, with the NC Asheville game occurring
after the CBE Classic title had been decided.  Squeezing in two
campus games between the AFC-CC combination and the two-game CBE
was asking for too much.  As it is, Self has said that his team
is tired.  So here we are with NC Asheville in the fourth CBE
game after the title has already been decided.  Strange indeed.

And because I'll be on travel during Friday's game, I'm preparing
most of this game prediction on Wednesday, rather than the day of
the game, when the ratings have the most results incorporated in
them.  Some prognosticators, like Dunkel, don't post their
predictions this far in advance, so I'll see if I can squeeze in
an update later, but if not, this will have to suffice.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 21.1 point margin, with a 100 percent
probability of winning the game.  Once again, both teams have
really small inconsistency values, so 21 points is way off in
the tail of the narrow bell-shaped curve, making the probability
higher than it would otherwise be.  However, even with the national
average of 11 points for inconsistency, 21 points is just shy of
being two standard deviations from the mean, leaving just about
2.5 percent of the area under the curve in the tail where Kansas
would lose the game.  We're still early in the season, so take
the performance numbers with a grain of salt, but Asheville is
playing 3.0 points above expectation, while Kansas is playing
1.2 points below expectation.  The trend and mental toughness
statistics are not statistically significant for Kansas, while
formally they are for Asheville, but it's still small-number
statistics.  Still, as also shown by the common opponents, the
predicted margin of 21 points seems a bit high.  But with 145
total points, we'd be looking at a prediction of Kansas 83,
Asheville 62.

Massey gives Kansas a 22.0 point margin, with a 96 percent
probability of winning the game.  His projected final score
is Kansas 83, Asheville 61.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 13.5 units, as
well as the better adjusted defense by 11.4 units, which combine to
an advantage of 24.9 units for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is
70.55, which translates into a 17.6 point advantage for Kansas and a
predicted final score of Kansas 81, Asheville 63.

Greenfield doesn't have its prediction up yet.

Dunkel doesn't have its prediction up yet.

Real Time gives Kansas a 24 point margin with a final score of
Kansas 89, Asheville 65.  That is, unless you also click on the
Scouting link, where the margin is only 18 points, the probability
of victory is 85.0 percent, and the final score is Kansas 83,
Asheville 65.

It's still too early for the RPI.

Dolphin isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Calling Don Davis.  Will the DPPI be back for this season?

Colley isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Whitlock isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

ESPN isn't on board with its BPI this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

The LRMC isn't available for this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a whopping 36.0 point margin with a
100 percent probability of winning the game.  The suggested final
score is Kansas 90, Asheville 54.

The Crotistics web site is back!  But it's still stuck on last season.

There are two common opponents, courtesy of the CBE Classic:

KU  +11 Ga  at home ( +7 neutral)
Ash -14 Ga  on road (-10 neutral)
KU  +21 Ash at home (+17 neutral)

KU  +21 Sie at home (+17 neutral)
Ash +12 Sie at home ( +8 neutral)
KU  +13 Ash at home ( +9 neutral)

These average to a 17 point margin for Kansas.

Players to watch:  Guard Ahmad Thomas plays the most minutes, scores the
most points, grabs the most rebounds, blocks the most shots, commits the
most personal fouls, and is their leading thief.  Guard Kevin Vannatta
dishes the most assists but also commits the most turnovers.  So the
Bulldogs are a very one-dimensional team.  Control Thomas, and you
control the game.

The average of the various prognostications is 22.3 points in favor of
Kansas.  Make it Kansas 83, Asheville 61, identical to Massey's prediction.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  8   # 28   # 11   #  7   #  7   -1.2    4.1   +0.52 +/- 1.48   +0.05 +/- 0.22
NC Asheville   #133   #113   #134   #130   #109   +3.0    4.9   +2.42 +/- 1.09   -0.44 +/- 0.12
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  5  #  8   #  6   # 23   #  4  #  3    #  3    #  1   #  2   #      #   
NC Asheville   #101  # 43   #149   # 63   #138  # 43    #145    #128   #216   #      #   
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         # (1)  # (1)  # (2)  # (2)  # (1)  # (1)  # (1)           4-1     #     #   
NC Asheville   #(140) #(140) #(127) #(129) #(132) #(125) #(139)          3-2     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         # (2) #       # (1) #       # (5) #       # (1) #       #  2  # 16    # (1) #   
NC Asheville   #(137)#       #(117)#       #(110)#       #(111)#       #196  #160    #(130)#   

Here is Kansas' season, with the season record projected as 25-6 based on the
current ratings, with projected losses at Iowa State, at West Virginia, and at
Kentucky:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 18 Indiana                     99 103    +2.85    -6.85
NEUT   #  5 Duke                        77  75    -2.40    +4.40
HOME   #156 Siena                       86  65   +22.67    -1.67
HOME   #113 UAB                         83  63   +19.29    +0.71
HOME   # 62 Georgia                     65  54   +13.40    -2.40
HOME   #134 NC Asheville                         +21.13             1.000
HOME   #177 Long Beach State                     +23.51             0.998
HOME   # 51 Stanford                             +11.92             0.924
HOME   #203 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +25.00             0.999
HOME   # 87 Nebraska                             +16.47             0.976
HOME   # 71 Davidson                             +14.53             0.960
AWAY   #108 UNLV                                 +13.21             0.944
AWAY   # 63 TCU                                   +7.74             0.862
HOME   # 54 Kansas State                         +12.57             0.976
HOME   # 47 Texas Tech                           +11.32             0.963
AWAY   # 26 Oklahoma                              +1.91             0.591
HOME   # 59 Oklahoma State                       +13.03             0.957
AWAY   # 10 Iowa State                            -3.05             0.312
HOME   # 65 Texas                                +13.67             0.943
AWAY   #  4 West Virginia                         -5.55             0.253
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                              -4.69             0.288
HOME   # 28 Baylor                                +8.50             0.838
HOME   # 10 Iowa State                            +2.81             0.674
AWAY   # 54 Kansas State                          +6.71             0.854
AWAY   # 47 Texas Tech                            +5.46             0.805
HOME   #  4 West Virginia                         +0.31             0.515
AWAY   # 28 Baylor                                +2.64             0.620
HOME   # 63 TCU                                  +13.60             0.972
AWAY   # 65 Texas                                 +7.81             0.816
HOME   # 26 Oklahoma                              +7.77             0.826
AWAY   # 59 Oklahoma State                        +7.17             0.828

Here is North Carolina Ashville's season to date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 39 VCU(Va. Commonwealth)       65  80   -13.91    -1.09
AWAY   # 62 Georgia                     46  60   -10.66    -3.34
AWAY   #321 USC Upstate                 73  57    +9.86    +6.14
HOME   #156 Siena                       92  80    +4.47    +7.53
AWAY   #196 Furman                      64  58    +0.43    +5.57
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                               -21.13             0.000