predictions for UAB game

With 7:10 remaining in the game with Siena, Kansas had a mere 5 point
lead.  My predicted margin had been 21 points for the game.  Surely
that prediction was going to be off, and by quite a bit.  Right?
Well, the final score was Kansas 86, Siena 65, a 21 point margin!
Kansas somehow managed to boost the margin by over 2 points per
minute over those last 7 minutes.  Heck, some teams struggle to
score 2 points per minute (which makes for an 80 point game), let
alone increase their margin by 2 points per minute.  Those last
7 minutes were a thing of beauty.  Does that mean the Jayhawks are
starting to click as a unit, or did Siena simply run out of gas?
We'll learn more today against UAB.  It's home away from home for
the Jayhawks, playing their third game out of four away from the
friendly confines of Allen Field House, but the Sprint Center
represents enough of a home advantage that I'm calling it a home
game in the table below.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 19.9 point margin, with a 97.7 percent
probability of winning the game.  Both teams have played only
three games, so we're looking at the statistics of small numbers,
but the average point total is 157, with UAB scoring at a decidedly
slower pace than Kansas, suggesting a final of Kansas 88, UAB 68.
It's too early to look at performance, inconsistency, trend, or
mental toughness, though Kansas has the advantage in all but trend,
and UAB's trend is being driven by a stinker of a performance against
Furman, in which they played over 17 points below expectation, followed
by an above expectation game against Troy.  Sagarin has added a "New
Feature" to his ratings, which shows predicted margins using his four
rating methods.  Curiously, I can't reproduce his results, which range
from 18.45 ("Points") to 20.41 ("Recent"); perhaps he's treating the
Sprint Center as a "semi-home" game and using a slightly different
home advantage value.  But he's also added an "Offense-Defense Method
Prediction", which has it as Kansas 84, UAB 73, a significantly
smaller margin.  Historically, his ratings have been competitive with
Massey, Pomeroy, and Greenfield (who usually matches Vegas), so this
"Offense-Defense Method" would seem to have some bugs in it at first
glance.  We shall see.

Massey gives Kansas an 18.0 point margin, with a 94 percent
probability of winning the game.  His projected final score
is Kansas 84, UAB 66.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 11.5 units, as
well as the better adjusted defense by 9.3 units, which combine to
a 20.8 units advantage for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is
71.95, which translates into a 15.0 point advantage for Kansas and a
predicted final score of Kansas 82, UAB 67.

Greenfield gives Kansas an 18.5 point margin, with 151 total points,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 85, UAB 66.  Among the key offensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in half of the eight categories; UAB
has a larger average score margin (well, yeah, considering the
opponents), more assists per game, more total rebounds per game, and
more free throw attempts per field goal attempt.  Considering how
poorly Kansas has been shooting charities so far, perhaps it's for the
best that the Jayhawks don't have a large number of free throw attempts
per field goal attempt.  Among key defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in only two of seven categories, namely offensive rebounds
per game and steals per game.  That sort of belies Pomeroy's indication
that Kansas has the better adjusted defense.

Dunkel favors Kansas by 23.0 points, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 18.0 points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  Dunkel's
total points is 158, suggesting a final score of Kansas 90.5, UAB 67.5
(you pick the roundings), while Vegas' total points is 151.0, suggesting
a final score of Kansas 84.5, UAB 66.5 (you again pick the roundings).

The schizophrenia at Real Time continues.  The schedule page gives
Kansas a 13 point margin and a final score of Kansas 80, UAB 67,
while the Scouting link has it as just a 6 point margin and a final
score of Kansas 73, UAB 67, with a 63.0 percent probability of Kansas
winning the game.  Seriously?

It's still too early for the RPI.

Dolphin isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Calling Don Davis.  Will the DPPI be back for this season?

Colley isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Whitlock isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

ESPN isn't on board with its BPI this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

The LRMC isn't available for this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas an 11.0 point margin with an 88 percent
probability of winning the game.  The suggested final score is
Kansas 84, UAB 73.  Hmm, that's identical to Sagarin's new
"Offense-Defense Method".

The Crotistics web site is back!  But it's still stuck on last season.

There are no common opponents.  I'm leaving this text here as a
placeholder to remind me to check for common opponents in the future.

Players to watch:  Guard Deion Lavender plays the most minutes, dishes
the most assists, and is their leading thief.  Forward Chris Cokley
scores the most points and grabs the most rebounds.  Forward William Lee
blocks the msot shots and is tied with Cokley for most rebounds.  Guard
Dirk Williams commits the most turnovers, and forward Tosin Mehinti
commits the most personal fouls.  Guard Nick Norton is out for the
season with a torn ACL.

The average of the various prognostications is 16.0 points in favor of
Kansas.  Make it Kansas 86, UAB 70.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  8   # 13   #  9   #  5   #  6   -0.9    4.7   +1.41 +/- 4.43   +0.11 +/- 0.32
UAB            #110   #333   #111   #108   #138   -3.7   13.4   +6.00 +/- 12.0   -0.81 +/- 1.55
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  5  #  4   #  6   # 14   #  3  #  1    #  3    #  1   #  1   #      #   
UAB            #160  #299   #100   #333   # 97  #275    #125    # 95   #329   #      #   
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         # (1)  # (1)  # (2)  # (2)  # (1)  # (1)  # (1)           2-1     #     #   
UAB            #(87)  #(87)  #(118) #(84)  #(81)  #(88)  #(89)           2-1     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         # (2) #       # (1) #       # (5) #       # (1) #       #  6  # 16    # (1) #   
UAB            #(84) #       #(108)#       #(113)#       #(113)#       # 67  #335    #(99) #   

Here is Kansas' season, including both possible opponents for the CBE game
after UAB (I must say that I like the fact that there are no opponents with Sagarin
Predictor ratings down in the 200 or 300 range; with the weakest opponent being
Long Beach State at #198, there is only one opponent from the bottom half of
Division I; no cupcakes!):

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 12 Indiana                     99 103    +0.88    -4.88
NEUT   #  4 Duke                        77  75    -2.21    +4.21
HOME   #161 Siena                       86  65   +23.05    -2.05
HOME   #111 UAB                                  +19.91             0.977
HOME   #134 George Washington                    +21.17             0.994
HOME   # 64 Georgia                              +13.84             0.949
HOME   #152 NC Asheville                         +22.69             0.996
HOME   #198 Long Beach State                     +25.12             0.999
HOME   # 47 Stanford                             +11.37             0.911
HOME   #169 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +23.32             0.997
HOME   # 87 Nebraska                             +16.80             0.977
HOME   # 74 Davidson                             +14.90             0.961
AWAY   #151 UNLV                                 +16.70             0.976
AWAY   # 76 TCU                                   +9.28             0.900
HOME   # 56 Kansas State                         +12.98             0.977
HOME   # 45 Texas Tech                           +11.03             0.954
AWAY   # 26 Oklahoma                              +2.26             0.606
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma State                       +10.74             0.918
AWAY   # 10 Iowa State                            -2.83             0.329
HOME   # 30 Texas                                 +9.01             0.847
AWAY   #  3 West Virginia                         -5.28             0.267
AWAY   #  5 Kentucky                              -4.56             0.296
HOME   # 25 Baylor                                +8.04             0.821
HOME   # 10 Iowa State                            +3.01             0.681
AWAY   # 56 Kansas State                          +7.14             0.863
AWAY   # 45 Texas Tech                            +5.19             0.787
HOME   #  3 West Virginia                         +0.56             0.526
AWAY   # 25 Baylor                                +2.20             0.599
HOME   # 76 TCU                                  +15.12             0.981
AWAY   # 30 Texas                                 +3.17             0.641
HOME   # 26 Oklahoma                              +8.10             0.832
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma State                        +4.90             0.737

Here is UAB's season to date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #346 Ark.-Pine Bluff             86  66   +22.74    -2.74
HOME   #191 Furman                      74  84    +7.48   -17.48
HOME   #278 Troy                        74  51   +13.74    +9.26
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                               -19.91             0.024