predictions for Siena game

I guess the real danger in today's game is playing down to the
level of the opponent.  Which is not to demean the Siena Saints.
They're a fair middle-tier team, not a bottom tier cupcake.  But
at the same time, they are no Indiana or Duke.  If the Jayhawks
expect a breather, they could be surprised.  Still, the various
prognostications suggest that Coleby ought to get some playing
time, along with the walk-ons, perhaps enabling Graham to get
some rest and avoid cramping.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 22.2 point margin, with a 97.8 percent
probability of winning the game.  Both teams have played only
two games, so we're looking at the statistics of small numbers,
but the average point total is 168, suggesting a final score of
Kansas 95, Siena 73.  It's too early to look at performance,
inconsistency, trend, or mental toughness, though I think it's
safe to say that Frank Mason has mental toughness in spades.

Massey gives Kansas a 24.0 point margin, with a 97 percent
probability of winning the game.  His projected final score
is Kansas 89, Siena 65.  Recall that Massey got the final
score of the Duke game nearly correct, being off by just one
point for each team.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 7.2 units, as
well as the better adjusted defense by 11.4 units, which combine to
an 18.6 units advantage for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is
73.35, which translates into a 13.6 point advantage for Kansas and a
predicted final score of Kansas 83, Siena 69.  That's actually the
most conservative prediction of the bunch, but it wouldn't be the
first time that a Kansas team let its foot off the gas against a
lesser opponent.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 21.0 point margin, with 160.0 total points,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 90.5, Siena 69.5 (you pick the
roundings).  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in six of eight categories; Siena has a larger average score margin
(well, yeah, considering the opponents) and a smaller turnover
percentage.  Among key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in
three of seven categories, namely offensive rebounds per game,
defensive rebounds per game, and steals per game.

Dunkel favors Kansas by 24.5 points, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 21.0 points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  Dunkel's
total points is 166, suggesting a final score of Kansas 95, Siena 71,
while Vegas' total points is 160.0, suggesting a final score of
Kansas 90.5, Siena 69.5 (you pick the roundings).  As is often the
case, Greenfield equals Vegas.

The schizophrenia at Real Time continues.  The schedule page gives
Kansas a 25 point margin and a final score of Kansas 90, Siena 65,
while the Scouting link has it as an 18 point margin and a final
score of Kansas 83, Siena 65, with an 84.4 percent probability of
Kansas winning the game.

It's still too early for the RPI.

Dolphin isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Calling Don Davis.  Will the DPPI be back for this season?

Colley isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Whitlock isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

ESPN isn't on board with its BPI this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

The LRMC isn't available for this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

To err is human; to really screw up takes a computer.  Somehow, after
beating the #1 team, the Seven Overtimes ranking for Kansas fell.  But
Seven Overtimes gives Kansas an 18.0 point margin with a 96 percent
probability of winning the game.  The suggested final score is
Kansas 93, Siena 75.

The Crotistics web site is back!  But it's still stuck on last season.

There are no common opponents.  I'm leaving this text here as a
placeholder to remind me to check for common opponents in the future.

Players to watch:  Guard Marquis Wright plays the most minutes, scores
the most points, and dishes the most assists (control him and you
control the game); forward Brett Bisping grabs the most rebounds,
commits the most turnovers, and is their leading thief; forward Javion
Ogunyemi blocks the most shots but also commits the most personal fouls;
guard Nico Clareth is recovering from a knee injury and may not play,
and as someone with the third-most minutes, he's not a bench warmer.

The average of the various prognostications is 20.8 points in favor of
Kansas.  Make it Kansas 95, Siena 74.

Oh, by the way, back in 2009 it was Kansas 91, Siena 84.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   #  5   #  8   #  4   #  5   -1.2    8.6   +12.1            +1.98         
Siena          #143   #222   #144   #144   #152   +0.3    1.7    +2.4            +0.16
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  5  #  4   #  6   #  7   #  4  #  1    #  3    #  1   #  1   #      #   
Siena          #151  # 93   # 80   #184   #102  #116    #138    #132   #204   #      #   
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         # (1)  # (1)  # (2)  # (2)  # (1)  # (1)  # (1)           1-1     #     #   
Siena          #(147) #(145) #(133) #(135) #(123) #(126) #(143)          1-1     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         # (2) #       # (1) #       # (5) #       # (1) #       #  8  #  9    # (1) #   
Siena          #(138)#       #(118)#       #(128)#       #(110)#       #151  #174    #(115)#   

Here is Kansas' season, including both possible opponents for the CBE game
after UAB:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 15 Indiana                     99 103    +3.26    -7.26
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        77  75    -2.85    +4.85
HOME   #144 Siena                                +22.16             0.978
HOME   #114 UAB                                  +20.76             0.970
HOME   #141 George Washington                    +21.91             0.977
HOME   # 62 Georgia                              +14.63             0.908
HOME   #189 NC Asheville                         +25.02             0.989
HOME   #149 Long Beach State                     +22.59             0.980
HOME   # 42 Stanford                             +11.79             0.858
HOME   #225 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +27.19             0.993
HOME   # 94 Nebraska                             +18.90             0.957
HOME   # 98 Davidson                             +19.11             0.959
AWAY   #170 UNLV                                 +17.54             0.945
AWAY   # 72 TCU                                   +9.61             0.809
HOME   # 50 Kansas State                         +13.37             0.888
HOME   # 39 Texas Tech                           +11.35             0.849
AWAY   # 18 Oklahoma                              +1.20             0.543
HOME   # 41 Oklahoma State                       +11.55             0.853
AWAY   # 25 Iowa State                            +2.31             0.583
HOME   # 31 Texas                                 +9.87             0.815
AWAY   # 12 West Virginia                         -0.69             0.475
AWAY   #  7 Kentucky                              -3.45             0.377
HOME   # 17 Baylor                                +7.44             0.751
HOME   # 25 Iowa State                            +8.75             0.787
AWAY   # 50 Kansas State                          +6.93             0.736
AWAY   # 39 Texas Tech                            +4.91             0.672
HOME   # 12 West Virginia                         +5.75             0.699
AWAY   # 17 Baylor                                +1.00             0.536
HOME   # 72 TCU                                  +16.05             0.928
AWAY   # 31 Texas                                 +3.43             0.622
HOME   # 18 Oklahoma                              +7.64             0.756
AWAY   # 41 Oklahoma State                        +5.11             0.679

Here is Siena's season to date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #288 Cornell                     89  78   +11.94    -0.94
AWAY   #141 George Washington           75  77    -3.47    +1.47
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                               -22.16             0.022