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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Duke game
- asteroid
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8 years 1 week ago #9269
by asteroid
So, Duke fans are probably feeling pretty good about today's game.
After all, they have the #1 ranked team. They have two wins already
under their belts. They had to travel a much shorter distance to
get to the venue and didn't have to change time zones. Meanwhile,
Kansas lost their opener, dropped in the rankings, and had to travel
over 5000 miles and cross five time zones to get to the arena.
Not so fast. Being ranked higher means nothing, as Kansas found out
in Honolulu. And Duke's two wins were against cupcakes, so they
don't say much about their team. And Kansas was smart enough to fly
to New York immediately after Friday's game, giving them maximum time
to overcome jet lag. Plus the Jayhawks are battle-tested against a
Top 20 team. Indeed, they nearly overcame a 15-for-31 three-point
shooting performance, and would have, had it not been for a blown
shot clock violation call. And Duke's star recruit isn't expected
to play, along with two other injured freshman, so the Blue Devils
are a little short-handed. Kansas ought to be at full strength,
though there are questions about just how sore Lucas' foot is, and
it sounds like the team doctors haven't yet figured out why Graham
is cramping so much. Both may have to play limited minutes.
These conflicting situations manifest themselves in the first two
predictions.
Sagarin makes Kansas a 4.71 point underdog, with just a 33.4 percent
probability of winning the game. As for total points, even if we
ignore the overtime, Kansas scored way above last season's average,
while Duke's two lopsided results show a more typical total. Let's
put it at 164 and go for the under, suggesting a final score of
Kansas 80, Duke 84.
Meanwhile, Massey gives Kansas a 4.0 point margin, with a 64 percent
probability of winning the game. His projected final score is
Kansas 78, Duke 74. Hey, I'll take that.
Pomeroy has Duke with the better adjusted offense by 6.6 units, while
Kansas has the better adjusted defense by 1.1 units, which combine to
a 5.5 units disadvantage for Kansas. The average adjusted tempo is
74.2, which translates into a 4.08 point advantage for Duke and a
predicted final score of Kansas 76, Duke 80.
Greenfield makes Kansas a 2.5 point underdog, with 168.5 total points
(even more than noted above), suggesting a final score of Kansas 83,
Duke 85.5 (you pick the rounding). Among the key offensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in only three of eight categories, namely
points per game, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, and
turnover percentage. While Duke has a higher average score margin,
those two cupcake opponents make that a fairly meaningless statistic.
Of greater concern is the total rebounds per game, where Duke has an
8.5 advantage. Among key defensive stats, Duke has the advantage in
all seven categories. Well yeah, it's easy to hold cupcakes to a low
points per game and a low field goal percentage.
Dunkel favors Kansas by 5.5 points, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 2.5 points in favor of Duke, so he is picking Kansas in the game and
against the spread. Dunkel's total points is 172 (boy, these predictions
keep going up!), suggesting a final score of Kansas 89, Duke 83, while
Vegas' total points is 167.5, suggesting a final score of Kansas 82.5
(you pick the rounding), Duke 85.
Real Time needs to get its act together. First of all, how do you
justify giving Duke the #14 strength of schedule after playing two
cupcakes? Second, the game prediction is Kansas 76, Duke 70, on the
schedule page, but click on the scouting link, and you see Kansas
with a conference record of 18-3, a home record of 0-1, a neutral
record of 0-0, and a game prediction of Kansas 81, Duke 68, with a
76.2 percent probability of Kansas winning the game. Hey, I'll take
it, but you have to wonder what Real Time is smoking?
It's still too early for the RPI.
Dolphin isn't on board with this season yet, as usual. I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.
Calling Don Davis. Will the DPPI be back for this season?
Colley isn't on board with this season yet, as usual. I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.
Whitlock isn't on board with this season yet, as usual. I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.
ESPN isn't on board with its BPI this season yet, as usual. I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.
The LRMC isn't available for this season yet, as usual. I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.
Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 4.0 point margin with a 65 percent
probability of winning the game. The suggested final score is
Kansas 90, Duke 86.
The Crotistics web domain does not appear to exist at the moment. Wither
Crotistics?
There are no common opponents. I'm leaving this text here as a
placeholder to remind me to check for common opponents in the future.
Players to watch: Guard Luke Kennard plays the most minutes and dishes the
most assists; guard Grayson "Ted Cruz" Allen scores the most points and
trips the most opponents, while also committing the most turnovers; forward
Amile Jefferson grabs the most rebounds and blocks the most shots; guard
Matt Jones is their leading thief; and guard Frank Jackson is tied with
Allen for most turnovers, and also commits the most personal fouls (he
plays a fair number of minutes, so I'd go after him).
The average of the various prognostications is 2.1 points in favor of
Kansas, buoyed slightly by that Real Time 13 pointer. But Massey,
Dunkel, Real Time, and Seven Overtimes are all picking Kansas.
Rock Chalk!
=================================== Sagarin ====================================
Rate SoS PP GM Rcnt Perf Inc. Trend Mental Tufness
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -------------- --------------
Kansas # 8 # 18 # 8 # 8 # 11 -5.8
Duke # 1 #257 # 1 # 1 # 1 +6.4 0.3 -0.35 -0.04
= Massey = = Pomeroy = Greenfield Dunkel Real Time === RPI ===
Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate Rate SoS Rate SoS
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Kansas # 5 # 23 # 1 #238 # 5 # 12 # 3 # 1 # 1 # #
Duke # 10 #207 # 6 # 32 # 1 #124 # 12 # 15 # 14 # #
======================= Dolphin ====================== ===== == DPPI ==
Std. Med. Pre. IRPI RPI Pair Poll Sched Recrd Rate SoS
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ---- ----
Kansas # (1) # (1) # (2) # (2) # (1) # (1) # (1) 0-1 # #
Duke #(18) #(18) #(20) #(13) #(15) #(14) #(18) 2-0 # #
= Colley = Whitlock ESPN BPI == LRMC == == 7OT === Crotistics
Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SoS
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Kansas # (2) # # (1) # # (5) # # (1) # # 4 # 71 # #
Duke #(13) # #(14) # #(11) # #(12) # # 24 #298 # #
Here is Kansas' season, including both possible opponents for the CBE game
after UAB. We're looking at double-digit margins after today's game until
conference play begins.
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 12 Indiana 99 103 +1.75 -5.75
NEUT # 1 Duke -4.71 0.334
HOME #144 Siena +21.42 0.974
HOME #153 UAB +22.35 0.979
HOME #126 George Washington +20.56 0.969
HOME # 53 Georgia +12.85 0.879
HOME #196 NC Asheville +24.67 0.988
HOME #123 Long Beach State +20.20 0.967
HOME # 64 Stanford +14.45 0.906
HOME #232 Kansas City(UMKC) +26.69 0.992
HOME # 94 Nebraska +18.02 0.949
HOME # 82 Davidson +16.23 0.930
AWAY #178 UNLV +17.48 0.944
AWAY # 66 TCU +8.26 0.774
HOME # 50 Kansas State +12.59 0.874
HOME # 44 Texas Tech +11.92 0.861
AWAY # 22 Oklahoma +0.46 0.517
HOME # 52 Oklahoma State +12.83 0.878
AWAY # 24 Iowa State +1.16 0.542
HOME # 38 Texas +11.06 0.843
AWAY # 11 West Virginia -2.02 0.427
AWAY # 10 Kentucky -2.51 0.410
HOME # 32 Baylor +9.28 0.801
HOME # 24 Iowa State +7.60 0.755
AWAY # 50 Kansas State +6.15 0.712
AWAY # 44 Texas Tech +5.48 0.691
HOME # 11 West Virginia +4.42 0.656
AWAY # 32 Baylor +2.84 0.602
HOME # 66 TCU +14.70 0.909
AWAY # 38 Texas +4.62 0.663
HOME # 22 Oklahoma +6.90 0.735
AWAY # 52 Oklahoma State +6.39 0.719
Here is Duke's season to date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #324 Marist 94 49 +38.40 +6.60
HOME #182 Grand Canyon 96 61 +28.75 +6.25
NEUT # 8 Kansas +4.71 0.666
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, gorillahawk, jayhawk969, murphyslaw
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