predictions for Indiana game

And so it begins.  And how.  A pair of Top 20 opponents right off the bat
rather than Cupcake U.  Indiana isn't expected to start any freshmen, so
the Hoosiers might have a slight edge in the experience department, which
can be valuable in these early season games.  Indiana wasn't very
impressive in their early outings last season, but perhaps that was due
to starting some freshmen.  Let's just say that I wouldn't count on a
repeat performance.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 4.86 point margin, with a 67.1 percent probability
of winning the game.  As for total points, that's purely a guess, but
using the average of Kansas games for last season, in which 148 total
points were scored, we'd expect a final score of 77 to 72.

Massey gives Kansas a 6.0 point margin, with a 71 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 79, Indiana 73.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 0.9 units, as
well as the better adjusted defense by 5.8 units, which combine to a
6.7 units advantage for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is 71.5,
which must also be purely a guess on Pomeroy's part, but it translates
into a 4.79 point advantage for Kansas and a predicted final score of
75 to 70.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 6.0 point margin, with 151 total points,
suggesting a final score of 78.5 to 72.5 (you pick the rounding).
There are no key stats to compare.

Dunkel favors Kansas by 3.5 points, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 6.5 points in favor of Kansas, so he is picking Indiana against the
spread.  Dunkel's total points is 144, suggesting a final score of
74 to 70, while Vegas' total points is 149.5, suggesting a final score
of 78 to 71.5 (you pick the rounding).  Dunkel hasn't released rankings
for this season, so I'm using last season's rankings in the table below.

Real Time had an entire off-season to fix its inconsistencies, but it
didn't happen.  On the schedule page, Real Time predicts Kansas 82,
Indiana 67, a whopping 15 point win.  But on the scouting page, the
prediction is for Kansas 80, Indiana 66, only a 14 point difference
and 3 fewer total points.  And who knows how Real Time computed its
Strength of Schedule rankings (Kansas #8, Indiana #70).  The probability
of winning the game is given as 80.1 percent.

It's too early for the RPI.

Dolphin isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Calling Don Davis.  Will the DPPI be back for this season?

Colley isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Whitlock isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

ESPN isn't on board with its BPI this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Seven Overtimes has started with the teams ranked alphabetically!  The
game prediction is for Indiana 72, Kansas 71.  Let's take that with a
grain of salt.  Or two.  Or three.  After all, if you click on the score
link to see the expected starters, they list Perry Ellis and Jamari Traylor
on the Kansas side!  

The Crotistics web domain does not appear to exist at the moment.  Wither
Crotistics?

There are obviously no common opponents.  I'm leaving this text here as a
placeholder to remind me to check for common opponents in the future.

Players to watch:  Indiana is expected to start three juniors at guard, namely
Robert Johnson (didn't he age rapidly in the Star Trek episode "The Deadly Years"?),
Josh Newkirk, and James Blackmon Jr., a sophomore at forward, namely O. G. Anunoby,
and a sophomore at center, namely Thomas Bryant.

The average of the various prognostications is 6.3 points in favor of Kansas,
buoyed by those Real Time whoppers, but partially countered by Seven Overtimes'
projected loss.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  2   #      #  2   #  2   #  2                                                
Indiana        # 14   #      # 14   # 14   # 14
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  3  #      #  3   #      #  2  #       # (2)   #  1   #  8   #      #   
Indiana        # 17  #      # 16   #      # 15  #       # (9)   # 14   # 70   #      #   
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         # (1)  # (1)  # (2)  # (2)  # (1)  # (1)  # (1)           0-0     #     #   
Indiana        #(17)  #(17)  #(10)  #(17)  #(19)  #(15)  #(15)           0-0     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         # (2) #       # (1) #       # (5) #       #     #       #     #       #     #   
Indiana        #(16) #       #(15) #       #(19) #       #     #       #     #       #     #   

Here is Kansas' season, including both potential CBE opponents after the UAB game:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 14 Indiana                               +4.86             0.671
NEUT   #  1 Duke                                  -0.94             0.466
HOME   #139 Siena                                +23.21             0.983
HOME   # 84 UAB                                  +18.82             0.956
HOME   # 86 George Washington                    +18.83             0.957
HOME   # 40 Georgia                              +12.81             0.878
HOME   #204 NC Asheville                         +26.70             0.992
HOME   # 76 Long Beach State                     +17.73             0.946
HOME   # 77 Stanford                             +17.74             0.947
HOME   #292 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +32.07             0.998
HOME   #111 Nebraska                             +20.72             0.970
HOME   # 71 Davidson                             +16.88             0.938
AWAY   #134 UNLV                                 +16.19             0.929
AWAY   #103 TCU                                  +13.62             0.892
HOME   # 64 Kansas State                         +16.01             0.927
HOME   # 54 Texas Tech                           +15.03             0.914
AWAY   # 25 Oklahoma                              +4.25             0.650
HOME   # 50 Oklahoma State                       +14.29             0.903
AWAY   # 20 Iowa State                            +2.63             0.594
HOME   # 18 Texas                                 +8.69             0.785
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia                         -0.04             0.499
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                              -1.12             0.459
HOME   # 23 Baylor                               +10.22             0.824
HOME   # 20 Iowa State                            +9.07             0.795
AWAY   # 64 Kansas State                          +9.57             0.808
AWAY   # 54 Texas Tech                            +8.59             0.783
HOME   #  8 West Virginia                         +6.40             0.720
AWAY   # 23 Baylor                                +3.78             0.634
HOME   #103 TCU                                  +20.06             0.966
AWAY   # 18 Texas                                 +2.25             0.581
HOME   # 25 Oklahoma                             +10.69             0.834
AWAY   # 50 Oklahoma State                        +7.85             0.762

Here is Indiana's season to date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  2 Kansas                                -4.86             0.329