Recipe for Success and why we should be optimistic

What is it that really makes a championship team? Keegan had a pretty good articel a couple weeks back showing the correlation of talent to NCAA Tourney success. He measured talent by NBA points scored in subsequent years. It was compelling and think had good merit. So clearly talent is on factor. But there are others, not the least of which is luck (good or bad). Seeding is a factor, matchups and the always present "having a bad game" are also factors. The factors that determine regular season success are similar. So with a glimpse to this past season and an eye on next years team here is my assessment of the factors that I think are significant, at least a couple factors.

One factor that was on display in spades for KU this year was consistency. Coaches love consistency. Oftentimes it is better to have a player that consistently plays to a 6.5 to 7.5 (on a scale of 1 to 10) as compared to a player that can play 4.5 on one night and 9.5 on another. Freshmen tend toward inconsistency where as upper classment tend toward consistency. If you look at the Jayhawks this past season, one of the hallmarks of the stretch run was incredible consistency of Landen and Perry and relative consistency of Frank with Devonte' growing more and more consistent as the season progressed. Wayne on the other hand was highly inconsistent. This caused the team to lose flow and have to adjust when a player was in a trough on their sine wave of performance. Svi was another player that grew more and more consistent as the season progressed whereas Brannen was more and more inconsistent. That wrecks havoc on the game plan. A good coach will devise a game plan to throw off the consistency of the other team. Key matchups can be especially problematic when one teams primary consistency buster is defending another teams most consistent player. Frank for KU was often the consistency buster this season and that was no more obvious then against OU. Devonte' is often a consistency buster. Believe it or not, Landen emerged as a consistency buster this season. Perry and Wayne while solid on defense were never big consistency busters. Jamari was for the most part our most inconsistent player but also his key role was a consistency buster. When he did that well he was valuable on the court but when he didn't he was more often a liability. The issue of consistency is a very huge issue and coaches often associate it with mental toughness. After all, mental touhgness does not make you more talented so much as it makes you more consistent. Frank was far less consistent this past year than the previous but that is not a huge slam since he was the model of consistency his sophomore season. He was still relatively consistent this past season.

The second issue is game IQ. Players with great game IQ's are super valuable. This season Landen Lucas was incredible in that regard. I mean when have we had a player with his level of talent perform at the level he did down the stretch? We have had some amazing game IQ players. Off the top of my head are Jacque Vaughn, Jerod Haase, Nick Collison, Danny Manning, Kirk Hinrich, Russell Robinson, Kevin Young, Brday Morningstar, and I'm sure others. These are guys that are where they are supposed to be when they are supposed to be there. They read the other team and know how to respond. They scour the scouting report and know the opposing players. They understand the flow of the game the movement of the ball and the positioning of the opposition. They understand angles on both passing lanes and rebounds on shots from various parts of the court. And so much more. Basketball IQ is super important to effectiveness. I love Frank and I am super pumped about his senior year and I might receive some pushback on this but Frank is not superior in game IQ. He isn't bad but he isn't good. Devonte' is not either. Actually Devonte' has a pretty high defense IQ but not so much on offense. Frank has a nose for the ball which is related to IQ but his offensive flow leaves a lot to be desired. Frank is awfully consistent and a bulldog and that serves him well but his IQ is only average. Svi showed some imporved IQ as the season progressed. Perry was above average but not superior. Wayne was an enigma. He looked at times like he saw everything on the court and at others like he was lost. There is that incosistency again. Jamari had zero game IQ. He compensated with incredible energy and effort. But when he failed it was obvious and when he succeeded it was a highlight. So IQ is the second major factor.

The third major factor is talent. Kirk Hinrich came to KU as a weak (relatively) skinny kid with unbelievable talent. Mario Chalmers came to KU as an undisciplined and very inconsistent player with incredible talent. The Morris twins came to KU with so many issues but talent was not one of them. There is no replacing talent. It is necessary but not all-encompassing. I want a guy with talent, consistency (mental toughness) and high basketball IQ. But talent is an interesting metric. Andrew Wiggins was supposedly the most talented freshmen to hit KU, or was he. Afterall, what was Wiggins talent? He had a 48 in vertical and a lightning fast second jump. He had a super quick first step and could change directin in the blink of an eye. He could shoot but he was not great just very good. But Andrew was average at handling the ball. He was superb at getting to the rim but only good at finishing at the rim. So what is talent really? It is the confluence of many individual talents like handle, jumping, shooting, slashing, rebounding, strength, and some other things. Here is the key, the talent that is most importnat is the talent that you need from that guy. In other words, the talnet that you do not have but need on the team that can only be had from that player. Darnell Jackson had a few amazing talents and that team needed his talents. He did not have to handle the ball or shoot much but they needed an enforcer who could get the rebounds and block up the paint and wear the other teams big down as the game progressed. So we had a combo of Kaun and Darnell that would confound the other team. Darnall would pound on them and Sasha would block them. What a combo. Selden was a good talent but it was all too often not in play. frank is reasonably talented but not elite. Ditto Devonte'. Svi may bust out and show his true talent this next year. Landen, well you know I am Landen's biggest advocate but talent is not his forte'. Azubuike, who knows. Ditto for Coleby. I am somewhat optimistic about Vick. Bragg, you betcha.

So where do we stand for 2016-17? We should be a very consistent team and that is a very important ingredient. That allows game plans to be effective. Jackson is the wildcard. If he comes in and shows great consistency which is the cousting report, we will be lethal on consistency. Landen is the poster child for consistency and should be bigger, stronger and even more equipped going into next season. Frank has always been consistent and I'm hoping rebounds to his sophomore form. Svi was very consistent off the bench and should continue that progression. Bragg and Vick are wildcards. If they can show consistency we are going to be a very good team.

What about IQ. Well, as I said Frank nor Devonte' are naturally high IQ players but they are both at least average. Add 4 and 3 years of experience and you have some pretty high IQ. A 4th year Frank is going to be higher IQ than most high IQ freshmen. And Devonte' is a 3rd year guy. So experience counts for a lot in IQ. Bragg seems to be a quick study and teachable. I was not unimpressed with his IQ last season. His problem was mostly his weakness. He was way to weak and skinny. Let's hope he shows the progression on IQ and beefs up. As I mentioned, Svi showed strong IQ and I suspect him to really be strong this season. Jackson is supposed to have a very high basketball IQ. That may excite me as mush as his talent. Landen is an All-American in basketball IQ. We have a chance because of experience to have a very high IQ team.

Talent? Well, Jackson may be overall the most talented of the big time OAD's we have had. Bigger than Wiggins? Maybe! He can do more things I think but some things clearly not as well as Wiggs. Let's just say he will be close to Wiggins. Clearly Talent is going to be our weakness again but not a big weakness. The experience in the backcourt and Landen counts a lot toward talent as well. Those years at KU did help them to become more talented. So while there will be more talented teams we will be in the mix.

Combine all three and we have the makings of a very good team. We will be at least a top-10 team next season and if things play out our combination of IQ, talent and consistency might just be the winning recipe.