predictions for Villanova game

Three down, three to go, and the most difficult three remain.  Villanova
is #2 in Sagarin Predictor, so the Regional Final could easily be as good
a game as a National Championship game.  Perhaps the one statistic that
stands out is that Villanova has played only six games against the
Sagarin Top 25 and lost half of them.  By comparison, Kansas has played
14 games against the Sagarin Top 25 and won 11 of them.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 0.83 point margin, with a 53.3 percent probability
of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 145.0 points
per game, that suggests a final score of Kansas 73, Villanova 72.  Kansas
has been playing 0.80 points above expectation, but Villanova has been
playing 0.56 points above expectation, which means that the Jayhawks could
be a 1.07 point favorite.  Both teams have positive trends, though the
trend for Kansas is almost five times larger and now has some statistical
significance to it.  Both teams also have positive mental toughness ratings
that are virtually identical and not statistically significant.  Taken at
face value, the margin for Kansas increases to 1.94 points.  Villanova has
been slightly more consistent than Kansas.  Their best game came at home
against Xavier when they played 23 points above expectation, while their
worst game was the neutral court game against Oklahoma, when they played
25 points below expectation.  By comparison, Kansas' best game came on the
road against Texas, when they played almost 25 points above expectation,
while their worst game was the road game against Oklahoma State, when they
played over 30 points below expectation.  Villanova has played 17 of 37
games above expectation by more than 0.83 points, which would be enough to
win the Regional Final, corresponding to a 45.9 percent chance of winning.
All three of their tournament games have been above expectation by double
digits following a stretch of six out of seven games played below
expectation.  Meanwhile, Kansas has played only 11 of 36 Division I games
below expectation by more than 0.83 points, which would be enough to lose
the Regional Final, corresponding to a 30.6 percent chance of losing.
Those average to a 38.3 percent chance of Kansas losing, considerably better
odds than derived from the Sagarin Predictor ratings shown above.

Massey gives Kansas a 1.0 point margin, with a 51 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 74, Villanova 73.

Pomeroy has Villanova with the better adjusted offense by 2.2 units, but
Kansas has the better adjusted defense by 1.7 units, which combine to a
0.5 units advantage for Villanova.  With an average of 68.55 possessions
per game, the margin for the Wildcats works out to 0.34 points.  The ratings
suggest a final score of Kansas 73, Villanova 73.  Overtime, anyone?

Greenfield gives Kansas a 2.5 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final
score of 74 to 71.5 (you pick the rounding).  Among the key offensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in five of eight categories; Villanova has a higher
average score margin by 1 point per game, dishes 0.9 more assists per game,
and has a smaller turnover percentage by 1 percent.  Among the key defensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in four of seven categories; Villanova holds
opponents to 3.8 fewer points per game, gets 0.3 more steals per game, and
commits 1.8 fewer personal fouls per game.

Dunkel makes Kansas a 2.0 point underdog, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 2.5 points in favor of Kansas, so he is picking Villanova against the
spread.  With a total points projection of 140, the implied final score is
Kansas 69, Villanova 71.  Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total is 146, which
would imply a final score of Kansas 74, Villanova 72.

Real Time doesn't have a prediction for today's game.  Perhaps just as well,
considering how Real Time produced, on average, the worst predictions during
the conference season.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 1.48 point margin, with a 55.2 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 73, Villanova 71.

Colley's rankings haven't been updated since March 20.

Whitlock still hasn't updated his ratings since March 13, but the previous
ratings differential is 3.76 units in favor of Kansas.  Using the scaling
factor of 0.726 determined just before conference play began, Kansas would
have a 2.73 point margin.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 0.7 points in favor
of Villanova, though the BPI hasn't been updated since March 14.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas just a 1.0 point margin, corresponding to a
52 percent probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is
Kansas 73, Villanova 72.  Then again, Seven Overtimes produced the second-worst
predictions during the conference season, only marginally better than Real Time.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 3.01 point margin, but he hasn't updated his ratings
since March 13 either.

Haven't received any predictions from the DPPI since the regular season.

There is one common opponent, namely Oklahoma, which Kansas played twice,
giving us two scores to compare:

KU   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral)
Vil -23 OU  neutral (-23 neutral)
KU  +22 Vil neutral (+22 neutral)

KU   +4 OU  on road ( +8 neutral)
Vil -23 OU  neutral (-23 neutral)
KU  +31 Vil neutral (+31 neutral)

I think it's safe to say that the comparison isn't fair.  Oklahoma really
destroyed Villanova.  I really don't expect Kansas to win by the average
shown here, namely 26.5 points, especially considering how easily 'Nova
handled Miami, but I'd be thrilled if the game was anywhere close to being
as easy as a double-digit win.

Players to watch:  Guard Ryan Arcidiacono plays the most minutes, dishes the
most assists, and steals the most balls.  Guard Josh Hart scores the most
points.  Forward Daniel Ochefu grabs the most rebounds and blocks the most
shots.  Guard Jalen Brunson commits the most turnovers.  Forward Kris Jenkins
commits the most personal fouls.  Guard Donte DiVincenzo is out with a foot
injury indefinitely, but only averaged 8 minutes a game.

The average of the various prognostications is 2.97 points in favor of Kansas,
though if you ignore the common opponent, it drops to 1.16 points.  The projected
final score would be Kansas 74, Villanova 71.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  1   #  3   #  1   #  1   #  1   +0.8   10.4   +0.19 +/- 0.17   +0.05 +/- 0.18
Villanova      #  3   # 27   #  2   #  4   #  3   +0.6   10.0   +0.04 +/- 0.16   +0.07 +/- 0.18
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  1  #  5   #  3   #  6   #  1  #  2    #  2    #  1   # 10   #  1   #  6
Villanova      #  3  # 10   #  2   # 23   #  3  # 11    #  8    #  6   # 25   #  4   # 17
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   1.155   33-4     #     #   
Villanova      #  2   #  2   #  3   #  2   #  4   #  2   #  2   0.947   32-5     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1  #  7    #  1  #  9    #  5  # 53    #  1  #  3    #  1  #  5    #  1  #  4
Villanova      #  2  # 22    #  5  # 31    #  3  # 71    #  2  # 40    #  3  # 35    #  6  # 46

Here is Kansas' season, including possible future opponents selected from
the highest remaining seed.  The chances of winning the National Championship
currently stand at 20 percent.  A win today would increase those odds
considerably.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #308 Northern Colorado          109  72   +35.56    +1.44
NEUT   #  3 Michigan State              73  79    +0.83    -6.83
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 63 UCLA                        92  73   +12.63    +6.37
NEUT   # 21 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +6.07    +0.93
HOME   #283 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +33.29    -0.29
HOME   #156 Harvard                     75  69   +24.53   -18.53
HOME   #281 Holy Cross                  92  59   +33.27    -0.27
HOME   # 62 Oregon State                82  67   +15.89    -0.89
HOME   #151 Montana                     88  46   +24.10   +17.90
AWAY   # 44 San Diego State             70  57    +6.76    +6.24
HOME   # 95 UC Irvine                   78  53   +18.93    +6.07
HOME   # 25 Baylor                     102  74   +10.48   +17.52
HOME   #  8 Oklahoma                   109 106    +6.29    -3.29
AWAY   # 52 Texas Tech                  69  59    +7.86    +2.14
AWAY   #  6 West Virginia               63  74    -1.14    -9.86
HOME   #126 TCU                         70  63   +22.08   -15.08
AWAY   # 83 Oklahoma State              67  86   +11.36   -30.36
HOME   # 35 Texas                       76  67   +12.01    -3.01
AWAY   # 24 Iowa State                  72  85    +2.98   -15.98
HOME   #  9 Kentucky                    90  84    +6.44    -0.44
HOME   # 48 Kansas State                77  59   +14.18    +3.82
AWAY   #126 TCU                         75  56   +15.46    +3.54
HOME   #  6 West Virginia               75  65    +5.48    +4.52
AWAY   #  8 Oklahoma                    76  72    -0.33    +4.33
HOME   # 83 Oklahoma State              94  67   +17.98    +9.02
AWAY   # 48 Kansas State                72  63    +7.56    +1.44
AWAY   # 25 Baylor                      66  60    +3.86    +2.14
HOME   # 52 Texas Tech                  67  58   +14.48    -5.48
AWAY   # 35 Texas                       86  56    +5.39   +24.61
HOME   # 24 Iowa State                  85  78    +9.60    -2.60
NEUT   # 48 Kansas State                85  63   +10.87   +11.13
NEUT   # 25 Baylor                      70  66    +7.17    -3.17
NEUT   #  6 West Virginia               81  71    +2.17    +7.83
NEUT   #235 Austin Peay                105  79   +26.40    -0.40
NEUT   # 27 Connecticut                 73  61    +7.44    +4.56
NEUT   # 23 Maryland                    79  63    +6.15    +9.85
NEUT   #  2 Villanova                             +0.83             0.533   0.533 probability of Final Four
NEUT   # 17 Oregon                                +5.18             0.686   0.366 probability of Championship Game
NEUT   #  4 North Carolina                        +0.87             0.532   0.195 probability of National Championship

Here is Villanova's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #285 Fairleigh Dickinson         91  54   +32.57    +4.43
HOME   # 77 Nebraska                    87  63   +16.42    +7.58
HOME   #167 East Tennessee State(ETS    86  51   +24.35   +10.65
HOME   # 91 Akron                       75  56   +17.93    +1.07
NEUT   # 89 Stanford                    59  45   +14.58    -0.58
NEUT   # 51 Georgia Tech                69  52   +10.30    +6.70
AWAY   # 47 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          86  72    +6.62    +7.38
NEUT   #  8 Oklahoma                    55  78    +2.15   -25.15
HOME   #262 La Salle                    76  47   +30.79    -1.79
AWAY   #  5 Virginia                    75  86    -3.00    -8.00
HOME   #273 Delaware                    78  48   +31.87    -1.87
HOME   #238 Pennsylvania                77  57   +29.10    -9.10
HOME   # 19 Xavier-Ohio                 95  64    +7.70   +23.30
AWAY   # 42 Creighton                   85  71    +5.59    +8.41
HOME   # 36 Seton Hall                  72  63   +11.25    -2.25
AWAY   # 26 Butler                      60  55    +3.21    +1.79
HOME   # 93 Marquette                   83  68   +17.97    -2.97
AWAY   # 61 Georgetown                  55  50    +8.36    -3.36
AWAY   # 36 Seton Hall                  72  71    +4.63    -3.63
HOME   # 53 Providence                  76  82   +13.73   -19.73
AWAY   #208 St. John's                  68  53   +20.44    -5.44
HOME   # 42 Creighton                   83  58   +12.21   +12.79
AWAY   # 53 Providence                  72  60    +7.11    +4.89
AWAY   #165 DePaul                      86  59   +17.65    +9.35
HOME   #208 St. John's                  73  63   +27.06   -17.06
AWAY   # 92 Temple                      83  67   +11.33    +4.67
HOME   # 26 Butler                      77  67    +9.83    +0.17
AWAY   # 19 Xavier-Ohio                 83  90    +1.08    -8.08
AWAY   # 93 Marquette                   89  79   +11.35    -1.35
HOME   #165 DePaul                      83  62   +24.27    -3.27
HOME   # 61 Georgetown                  84  71   +14.98    -1.98
NEUT   # 61 Georgetown                  81  67   +11.67    +2.33
NEUT   # 53 Providence                  76  68   +10.42    -2.42
NEUT   # 36 Seton Hall                  67  69    +7.94    -9.94
NEUT   #141 NC Asheville                86  56   +19.34   +10.66
NEUT   # 22 Iowa                        87  68    +5.29   +13.71
NEUT   # 15 Miami-Florida               92  69    +4.22   +18.78
NEUT   #  1 Kansas                                -0.83             0.467