Hottest Team

Peter posted something I cannot find but it spurred me to look at who is the hottest team. If you go on the 1st three games of the Tourney Villanova is clearly the hottest team by far. They have been playing by 14.7 points above expectations. That is a bit scary for KU fans since KU has played above expectations by only 3.3 points. KU is a 3 point favorite on raw rating but if Villanova continues to play at the level they did the 1st three games it will be a long night for KU.

Oh I do not like your chart. Now I will have nightmares

I would posit that KU is the 'hottest' team in the tournament. Villanova may be playing 'above expectations,' but we are on quite a winning streak, and 'hot' is often defined by winning streaks, rather than margin of victory. Villanova is perhaps the 'hottest shooting ' team in the tournament right now, but shooting comes and goes, and often goes suddenly, without warning, and often as the result of excellent defense. KU's greatest strength is forcing the wrong guys to shoot, or forcing the hot shooters to shoot from less desirable spots on the floor, or exerting more defensive pressure than the shooters are accustomed to. IF we do our job defensively tonight, we'll almost certainly win. If Villanova plays another game like their game against Georgetown back in the fog of history, we're toast, but what are the chances that they will shoot at 60% or better tonight? Has any team shot over 55% against KU this season?

Senex68 wrote: KU's greatest strength is forcing the wrong guys to shoot, or forcing the hot shooters to shoot from less desirable spots on the floor, or exerting more defensive pressure than the shooters are accustomed to.

I agree. Our defense isn't designed to shut someone down, just to make life a little bit more difficult everywhere. The hot shooters almost get suckered. They score some but just not quite as much as they are used to. But they get just enough reinforcement to keep trying. Against Maryland we slowed Suliamon and Trimble just enough. But they thought with a little more effort they could carry their team. But they couldn't and in the process THEY shut down their teammates by not getting them ball more.

There are a lot of ways to formulize "the hottest team" and they all have one failing...they are all wrong. So many things go into a teams performance and the eyeball test is maybe better than any formula. But that doesn't stop me from fomulizing it. Attached is a picture with the entire season trend for both teams. If you use this trend, both teams have improved steadily and both should be expected to play 3-4 points above expectation. So theoretically that should cancel out. Nova had a couple three game hot streaks but could never sustain it for a 4th. In late December and early January KU had a strong 5 game hot streak followed by the great funk. in February they also put together a 6 game hot streak but it was very modest. Before the tourney, Nova was in a little bit of a downward trend. My money says KU has the edge in all areas including trend.