predictions for Maryland game

We managed to avoid Tad Boyle, but could not avoid Mark Turgeon.
Hate to do it to him, but running into other Jayhawks is bound to
happen, sooner or later.  Oh well, survive and advance.

There are other games going on, so Sagarin continues to update his
ratings, but for purposes of this posting, I'm using his ratings
through the NCAA Tournament games on Sunday.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 5.6 point margin, with a 71.1 percent probability
of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 145.3 points
per game, that suggests a final score of Kansas 75, Maryland 70, with the
rounding working in the Terps' favor.  Kansas has been playing 0.8 points
above expectation, while Maryland has been playing 0.1 points above
expectation, which means that the Jayhawks could be a 6.2 point favorite.
Kansas has a positive trend bordering on statistical significance, while
Maryland has a slightly negative trend.  Meanwhile, Maryland has a positive
mental toughness rating that borders on statistical significance, while
the value for Kansas is positive, but small.  Taken at face value, Kansas
would have a 6.9 point margin.  Maryland has been more consistent than
Kansas.  Their best game came at home against Ohio State when they played
24 points above expectation, while their worst game also happened at home
against Wisconsin, when they played almost 20 points below expectation.
For Kansas, those two games were the road drubbing of Texas (almost 25
points above expectation) and the road loss to Oklahoma State (30 points
below expectation).  Maryland has played 9 of 34 Division I games above
expectation by more than 5.6 points, which would be enough to win Thursday's
game, corresponding to a 26.5 percent probability of winning.  Meanwhile,
Kansas has played only 6 of 35 Division I games below expectation by more
than 5.6 points, with NONE since the game in Ames way back on January 25.
That corresponds to a 17.1 percent chance of losing the game.  Those average
to a 21.8 percent chance of losing the game, considerably better odds than
derived from the Sagarin Predictor ratings shown above.

Massey gives Kansas a 7.0 point margin, with a 74 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 78, Maryland 71.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 4.7 units, as well
as the better adjusted defense by 4.2 units, which combine to an 8.9 units
advantage for Kansas.  With an average of 69.0 possessions per game, the
margin for the Jayhawks works out to 6.1 points.  The ratings suggest a
final score of Kansas 76, Maryland 70.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 6.5 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final
score of 75.5 (you pick the rounding) to 69.  Among the key offensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in all eight categories (Wow!  --Dave Armstrong). 
Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in four of seven
categories; Maryland holds opponents to fewer points per game, blocks more
shots per game, and commits fewer personal fouls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 4.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 6.5 points, so he is picking Maryland against the spread.  With a total
points projection of 150, the implied final score is Kansas 77, Maryland 73.
Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total is 145, which would imply a final score
of Kansas 76, Maryland 69.

Real Time doesn't have a prediction for today's game yet.  Perhaps just as
well, considering how Real Time produced, on average, the worst predictions
during the conference season.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 7.0 point margin, with a 72.9 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 77, Maryland 70.  It's
worth noting that the Predictive ranking for Maryland is the lowest of any
of Dolphin's rankings, suggesting that the Terps could be a more formidable
opponent than the predictive rating implies.

Whitlock still hasn't updated his ratings since March 13, but the previous
ratings differential is 10.0 units in favor of Kansas.  Using the scaling
factor of 0.726 determined just before conference play began, Kansas would
have a 7.2 point margin.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 4.1 points in favor
of Kansas, though it appears the BPI hasn't been updated since the end of the
regular season.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas just a 2.0 point margin, corresponding to a
56 percent probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is
Kansas 74, Maryland 72.  Then again, Seven Overtimes produced the second-worst
predictions during the conference season, only marginally better than Real Time.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 5.5 point margin, but he hasn't updated his ratings
since March 13 either.

Haven't received any predictions from the DPPI since the regular season.

There are two common opponents, namely Connecticut and Michigan State,
the latter of which Maryland has played twice, giving us three scores to
compare:

KU  +12 Con neutral (+12 neutral)
Md  +10 Con neutral (+10 neutral)
KU   +2 Md  neutral ( +2 neutral)

KU   -6 MSU neutral ( -6 neutral)
Md   -9 MSU on road ( -5 neutral)
KU   -1 Md  neutral ( -1 neutral)

KU   -6 MSU neutral ( -6 neutral)
Md   -3 MSU neutral ( -3 neutral)
KU   -3 Md  neutral ( -3 neutral)

The Connecticut comparison favors Kansas marginally, while the Michigan
State comparisons favor Maryland marginally.  The average favors Maryland
by two-thirds of a point.  Then again, Kansas should have beaten Michigan
State after leading most of that game.  And it was a LONG time ago.

Players to watch:  Guard Melo Trimble plays the most minutes, scores the
most points, dishes the most assists, and steals the most balls, but also
commits the most turnovers; he would seem to be the key player for Maryland,
so if you control him, you control the game.  Guard Rasheed Sulaimon is tied
with Trimble for most minutes played.  Forward Robert Carter grabs the most
rebounds, but also commits the most personal fouls.  Center Diamond Stone
blocks the most shots.

The average of the various prognostications is 5.3 points in favor of Kansas.
The projected final score would be Kansas 75, Maryland 70.  The projected
margins are only going to get smaller the farther we advance.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  1   #  3   #  1   #  1   #  1   +0.8   10.4   +0.16 +/- 0.17   +0.03 +/- 0.19
Maryland       # 20   # 43   # 21   # 18   # 18   +0.1    9.7   -0.01 +/- 0.17   +0.14 +/- 0.16
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  1  #  7   #  2   #  7   #  1  #  2    #  2    #  1   # 12   #  1   #  6
Maryland       # 17  # 33   # 22   # 44   # 20  # 20    # 23    # 16   # 34   # 13   # 23
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   1.149   32-4     #     #   
Maryland       # 11   # 11   # 22   # 16   # 13   # 15   # 17   0.856   27-8     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1  #  7    #  1  #  9    #  5  # 53    #  1  #  3    #  2  #  5    #  1  #  4
Maryland       # 16  # 55    # 29  # 73    # 20  # 65    # 24  # 42    # 19  # 28    # 17  # 20

Here is Kansas' season, including possible future opponents selected from
the highest remaining seed.  The chances of winning the National Championship
currently stand at 14 percent.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #308 Northern Colorado          109  72   +35.25    +1.75
NEUT   #  2 Michigan State              73  79    +0.49    -6.49
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 62 UCLA                        92  73   +12.34    +6.66
NEUT   # 22 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +5.71    +1.29
HOME   #283 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +32.98    +0.02
HOME   #155 Harvard                     75  69   +24.24   -18.24
HOME   #282 Holy Cross                  92  59   +32.97    +0.03
HOME   # 61 Oregon State                82  67   +15.65    -0.65
HOME   #150 Montana                     88  46   +23.80   +18.20
AWAY   # 46 San Diego State             70  57    +7.16    +5.84
HOME   # 97 UC Irvine                   78  53   +18.69    +6.31
HOME   # 25 Baylor                     102  74   +10.22   +17.78
HOME   # 10 Oklahoma                   109 106    +6.33    -3.33
AWAY   # 52 Texas Tech                  69  59    +7.60    +2.40
AWAY   #  6 West Virginia               63  74    -1.36    -9.64
HOME   #126 TCU                         70  63   +21.82   -14.82
AWAY   # 82 Oklahoma State              67  86   +11.09   -30.09
HOME   # 34 Texas                       76  67   +11.73    -2.73
AWAY   # 24 Iowa State                  72  85    +2.53   -15.53
HOME   #  8 Kentucky                    90  84    +6.06    -0.06
HOME   # 49 Kansas State                77  59   +13.92    +4.08
AWAY   #126 TCU                         75  56   +15.20    +3.80
HOME   #  6 West Virginia               75  65    +5.26    +4.74
AWAY   # 10 Oklahoma                    76  72    -0.29    +4.29
HOME   # 82 Oklahoma State              94  67   +17.71    +9.29
AWAY   # 49 Kansas State                72  63    +7.30    +1.70
AWAY   # 25 Baylor                      66  60    +3.60    +2.40
HOME   # 52 Texas Tech                  67  58   +14.22    -5.22
AWAY   # 34 Texas                       86  56    +5.11   +24.89
HOME   # 24 Iowa State                  85  78    +9.15    -2.15
NEUT   # 49 Kansas State                85  63   +10.61   +11.39
NEUT   # 25 Baylor                      70  66    +6.91    -2.91
NEUT   #  6 West Virginia               81  71    +1.95    +8.05
NEUT   #235 Austin Peay                105  79   +26.14    -0.14
NEUT   # 27 Connecticut                 73  61    +7.15    +4.85
NEUT   # 21 Maryland                              +5.57             0.711   0.711 probability for Elite Eight
NEUT   #  4 Villanova                             +1.02             0.538   0.383 probability for Final Four
NEUT   # 20 Oregon                                +5.28             0.689   0.264 probability for Championship Game
NEUT   #  3 North Carolina                        +0.86             0.532   0.140 probability for National Championship

Here is Maryland's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #265 Mount St. Mary's            80  56   +25.82    -1.82
HOME   # 60 Georgetown                  75  71    +9.97    -5.97
HOME   #211 Rider                       65  58   +22.26   -15.26
NEUT   #121 Illinois State              77  66   +12.45    -1.45
NEUT   # 81 Rhode Island                86  63    +8.52   +14.48
HOME   #279 Cleveland State             80  63   +27.21   -10.21
AWAY   #  3 North Carolina              81  89    -8.02    +0.02
HOME   #301 Saint Francis-Pa.           96  55   +28.78   +12.22
NEUT   # 27 Connecticut                 76  66    +1.58    +8.42
HOME   #316 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     77  56   +30.65    -9.65
NEUT   # 73 Princeton                   82  61    +7.52   +13.48
HOME   #145 Marshall                    87  67   +17.87    +2.13
HOME   #129 Penn State                  70  64   +16.48   -10.48
AWAY   # 59 Northwestern                72  59    +3.27    +9.73
HOME   #269 Rutgers                     88  63   +26.57    -1.57
AWAY   # 40 Wisconsin                   63  60    +0.17    +2.83
AWAY   # 39 Michigan                    67  70    +0.01    -3.01
HOME   # 71 Ohio State                 100  65   +10.77   +24.23
HOME   # 59 Northwestern                62  56    +9.89    -3.89
AWAY   #  2 Michigan State              65  74    -8.39    -0.61
HOME   # 23 Iowa                        74  68    +3.53    +2.47
AWAY   # 71 Ohio State                  66  61    +4.15    +0.85
AWAY   # 77 Nebraska                    70  65    +4.70    +0.30
HOME   #  9 Purdue                      72  61    +0.59   +10.41
Div2        Bowie State                 93  62
HOME   # 40 Wisconsin                   57  70    +6.79   -19.79
AWAY   #165 Minnesota                   63  68   +12.63   -17.63
HOME   # 39 Michigan                    86  82    +6.63    -2.63
AWAY   #  9 Purdue                      79  83    -6.03    +2.03
HOME   #117 Illinois                    81  55   +15.28   +10.72
AWAY   # 11 Indiana                     62  80    -5.59   -12.41
NEUT   # 77 Nebraska                    97  86    +8.01    +2.99
NEUT   #  2 Michigan State              61  64    -5.08    +2.08
NEUT   # 87 South Dakota State          79  74    +9.22    -4.22
NEUT   # 66 Hawai'i                     73  60    +7.14    +5.86
NEUT   #  1 Kansas                                -5.57             0.289