predictions for Connecticut game

So, we get the #9 seed instead of the #8 seed, which some people might
interpret as meaning we get the weaker of the two opponents.  However,
according to the Sagarin Predictor ratings, we went from a 11 point margin
against Colorado to a 7 point margin against Connecticut.  Then again,
going up against another Jayhawk in Tad Boyle would have been unfortunate.

Playing Austin Peay dropped the Kansas strength of schedule to #4 behind
Texas, Virginia, and Oklahoma.  However, the Michigan State loss allowed
Kansas to secure the undisputed #1 ranking in all Sagarin variants.  And
the Texas Tech loss dropped the Red Raiders out of the Top 50, costing
Kansas a couple of Top 50 wins.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 6.9 point margin, with a 75.0 percent probability
of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 142.8 points
per game, that suggests a final score of Kansas 75, Connecticut 68.  Kansas
has been playing 0.8 points above expectation, while Connecticut has been
playing 0.3 points above expectation, which means that the Jayhawks could
be a 7.4 point favorite.  Kansas has a weakly positive trend, while the
trend for Connecticut is weakly negative; although their last five games
have been above expectation, they weren't enough to offset the two stinkers
that preceded them.  Kansas a weakly positive mental toughness rating, while
the rating for Connecticut is negative.  Taken at face value, the margin for
Kansas increases to 9.4 points.  Connecticut is slightly more consistent
than Kansas.  The Huskies have played 9 of 35 games above expectation by
more than 6.9 points, which would be enough to win today's game.  That
corresponds to a 25.7 percent probability of winning.  Meanwhile, Kansas has
played just 5 of 34 Division I games below expectation by more than 6.9
points, which would be enough to lose today's game.  That corresponds to a
14.7 percent probability of losing.  Those average to 20.2 percent chance
of Kansas losing, somewhat more optimistic than derived from the Sagarin
ratings shown above.

Massey gives Kansas a 7.0 point margin, with a 74 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 76, Connecticut 69.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 8.2 units, as well
as the better adjusted defense by 1.3 units, which combine to a 9.5 units
advantage for Kansas.  With an average of 68.2 possessions per game, the
margin for the Jayhawks works out to 6.5 points.  The ratings suggest a
final score of Kansas 74, Connecticut 68, with the rounding working in the
Huskies' favor.

Greenfield gives Kansas an 8.0 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final
score of 74 to 66.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in seven of eight categories; Connecticut has a smaller turnover percentage.
Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just three of
seven categories, namely offensive rebounds per game, defensive rebounds per
game, and steals per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas an 11.5 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 8.0 points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  With a total
points projection of 145, the implied final score is Kansas 78, Connecticut 67.
Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total is 140, which would imply a final score
of Kansas 74, Connecticut 66.  Dunkel's rankings page is broken.

Real Time doesn't have a prediction for today's game yet.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin hasn't updated his ratings following the Round of 64 games, but
the previous ratings give Kansas a 7.4 point margin, with a 74.6 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 73,
Connecticut 66.

Whitlock also hasn't updated his ratings following the Round of 64 games,
but the previous ratings differential is 12.1 units in favor of Kansas.
Using the scaling factor of 0.726 determined just before conference play
began, Kansas would have an 8.8 point margin.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 5.3 points in favor
of Kansas, though it appears the BPI hasn't been updated since the end of the
regular season.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas just a 2.0 point margin, corresponding to a
56 percent probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is
Kansas 72, Connecticut 70.  Easily the least optimistic for Kansas of the
various projections listed here.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 6.9 point margin.

Haven't received any predictions from the DPPI since the regular season.

There is one common opponent, namely Texas:

KU   +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral)     KU  +30 UT  on road (+26 neutral)
Con  +5 UT  on road ( +9 neutral)     Con  +5 UT  on road ( +9 neutral)
KU   -4 Con neutral ( -4 neutral)     KU  +17 Con neutral (+17 neutral)

The road comparison favors Kansas greatly, while the home comparison favors
Connecticut.  The average is 6.5 points in favor of Kansas, consistent with
the various prognostications above.

Players to watch:  Guard Sterling Gibbs plays the most minutes, but that's the
only category in which he lead the Huskies.  Guard Rodney Purvis scores the
most points.  Guard Daniel Hamilton grabs the most rebounds, dishes the most
assists, and steals the most balls, but he also commits the most turnovers.
Center Amida Brimah blocks the most shots.  Guard Jalen Adams is tied with
Hamilton for most steals.  Forward Shonn Miller commits the most personal
fouls.

The average of the various prognostications is 7.3 points in favor of Kansas.
The projected final score would be Kansas 75, Connecticut 68.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  1   #  4   #  1   #  1   #  1   +0.8   10.5   +0.15 +/- 0.18   +0.02 +/- 0.19
Connecticut    # 25   # 72   # 26   # 27   # 23   +0.3    9.9   -0.03 +/- 0.17   -0.13 +/- 0.16
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  1  #  5   #  2   #  6   #  1  #  2    #       #  1   # 12   #  1   #  6
Connecticut    # 20  # 56   # 23   # 74   # 25  # 45    #       # 34   # 60   # 34   # 46
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   1.206   31-4     #     #   
Connecticut    # 33   # 34   # 26   # 48   # 35   # 33   # 30   0.711   25-10    #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1  #  3    #  1  #  9    #  5  # 53    #  1  #  3    #  4  #  6    #  1  #  4
Connecticut    # 41  # 80    # 29  # 73    # 26  # 73    # 26  # 70    # 28  # 65    # 26  # 67

Here is Kansas' season; chances of a National Championship have decreased to just 10.5 percent
due to the change in opponents and their ratings:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #308 Northern Colorado          109  72   +35.11    +1.89
NEUT   #  2 Michigan State              73  79    +0.33    -6.33
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 62 UCLA                        92  73   +12.18    +6.82
NEUT   # 22 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +5.54    +1.46
HOME   #283 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +32.83    +0.17
HOME   #155 Harvard                     75  69   +24.09   -18.09
HOME   #282 Holy Cross                  92  59   +32.82    +0.18
HOME   # 60 Oregon State                82  67   +15.44    -0.44
HOME   #151 Montana                     88  46   +23.68   +18.32
AWAY   # 45 San Diego State             70  57    +6.99    +6.01
HOME   # 97 UC Irvine                   78  53   +18.54    +6.46
HOME   # 25 Baylor                     102  74   +10.11   +17.89
HOME   # 10 Oklahoma                   109 106    +6.20    -3.20
AWAY   # 53 Texas Tech                  69  59    +7.46    +2.54
AWAY   #  6 West Virginia               63  74    -1.46    -9.54
HOME   #126 TCU                         70  63   +21.71   -14.71
AWAY   # 82 Oklahoma State              67  86   +10.99   -29.99
HOME   # 34 Texas                       76  67   +11.62    -2.62
AWAY   # 24 Iowa State                  72  85    +2.65   -15.65
HOME   #  8 Kentucky                    90  84    +5.74    +0.26
HOME   # 49 Kansas State                77  59   +13.81    +4.19
AWAY   #126 TCU                         75  56   +15.09    +3.91
HOME   #  6 West Virginia               75  65    +5.16    +4.84
AWAY   # 10 Oklahoma                    76  72    -0.42    +4.42
HOME   # 82 Oklahoma State              94  67   +17.61    +9.39
AWAY   # 49 Kansas State                72  63    +7.19    +1.81
AWAY   # 25 Baylor                      66  60    +3.49    +2.51
HOME   # 53 Texas Tech                  67  58   +14.08    -5.08
AWAY   # 34 Texas                       86  56    +5.00   +25.00
HOME   # 24 Iowa State                  85  78    +9.27    -2.27
NEUT   # 49 Kansas State                85  63   +10.50   +11.50
NEUT   # 25 Baylor                      70  66    +6.80    -2.80
NEUT   #  6 West Virginia               81  71    +1.85    +8.15
NEUT   #235 Austin Peay                105  79   +26.01    -0.01
NEUT   # 26 Connecticut                           +6.89             0.750   0.750 probability of Sweet Sixteen
NEUT   # 23 Maryland                              +5.58             0.698   0.524 probability of Elite Eight
NEUT   #  5 Villanova                             +1.25             0.546   0.286 probability of Final Four
NEUT   # 19 Oregon                                +5.06             0.681   0.195 probability of Championship Game
NEUT   #  3 North Carolina                        +1.00             0.537   0.105 probability of National Championship

Here is Connecticut's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #339 Maine                      100  56   +32.36   +11.64
HOME   #247 New Hampshire               85  66   +23.00    -4.00
HOME   #187 Furman                      83  58   +19.34    +5.66
NEUT   # 37 Michigan                    74  60    +1.85   +12.15
NEUT   # 39 Syracuse                    76  79    +1.98    -4.98
NEUT   # 21 Gonzaga                     70  73    -1.41    -1.59
HOME   #298 Sacred Heart                82  49   +27.20    +5.80
NEUT   # 23 Maryland                    66  76    -1.31    -8.69
HOME   # 68 Ohio State                  75  55    +9.14   +10.86
HOME   #312 UMass Lowell                88  79   +28.75   -19.75
HOME   #351 Central Connecticut St.     99  52   +36.72   +10.28
AWAY   # 34 Texas                       71  66    -1.89    +6.89
AWAY   #193 Tulane                      75  67   +13.02    -5.02
HOME   # 91 Temple                      53  55   +11.45   -13.45
HOME   # 72 Memphis                     81  78    +9.30    -6.30
AWAY   # 67 Tulsa                       51  60    +2.38   -11.38
AWAY   # 66 Houston                     69  57    +2.34    +9.66
HOME   #193 Tulane                      60  42   +19.64    -1.64
HOME   # 61 Georgetown                  68  62    +8.57    -2.57
HOME   # 30 Cincinnati                  57  58    +4.02    -5.02
AWAY   #180 Central Florida(UCF)        67  41   +11.98   +14.02
AWAY   # 72 Memphis                     77  57    +2.68   +17.32
HOME   #184 East Carolina               85  67   +18.95    -0.95
AWAY   # 91 Temple                      58 63     +4.83    -9.83
HOME   # 67 Tulsa                       75  73    +9.00    -7.00
HOME   # 17 SMU                         68  62    +0.99    +5.01
AWAY   # 30 Cincinnati                  60  65    -2.60    -2.40
AWAY   #228 South Florida               81  51   +15.25   +14.75
HOME   # 66 Houston                     68  75    +8.96   -15.96
AWAY   # 17 SMU                         54  80    -5.63   -20.37
HOME   #180 Central Florida(UCF)        67  46   +18.60    +2.40
NEUT   # 30 Cincinnati                 104  97    +0.71    +6.29
NEUT   # 91 Temple                      77  62    +8.14    +6.86
NEUT   # 72 Memphis                     72  58    +5.99    +8.01
NEUT   # 54 Colorado                    74  67    +3.92    +3.08
NEUT   #  1 Kansas                                -6.89             0.250