The NBA Draft

I'm bored. I hate this waiting. But I find remarkable ways to waste time until the game, including sleeping, eating, maybe working, and checking up on the mock drafts that abound on the internet right now. Here's my take, for what it's worth.

Nobody on our team is a projected 1st rounder right now. I find that consistent with my evaluation of the players and their particular skills and weaknesses. Diallo is projected to go 1st, in the early portion of the 2nd round. Then a wait for Svi, Perry and Wayne. So those four are the only guys who are projected in the 1st 2 rounds, and all are 2nd rounders. If that holds, and it might, I suspect that we'll lose Diallo to Europe and keep Wayne and Svi. Perry is what he is, and he'll almost certainly make a team next year, but nobody is going to draft him and give him a guaranteed contract. If Wayne comes out, he's bound for the D league, and the D league does not pay very well. And Svi is not going yet.

I'd say that the odds are no worse than 50/50 that Wayne will stay. That would give us quite a 5 man backcourt next year. Nice rotation, and if Wayne stays, Vick will almost certainly redshirt. Interesting to consider.

ha, i ve been thinking about the same issue and reached out to someone very close to the program. thier view is that diallo and wayne will almost surely go. all others return. this will be the first year that players can try out but then come back so its possible one or both could really fail their tryout and come back. i feel like we can plug diallo beter than wayne but they say this swing guard we are focused on is like wiggins but meaner. i like the sound of that. so im now tabling all this speculation and focussing on cheering these guys to six straight wins. l like that asteroid has us favored in all the likely matchups. go hawks!

I suspect Wayne realistically could play his way into the first round.. If he has four or five big games MOP and a late lottery slot is not out of the question. Or he could be good, but not great we make it to Houston and he garners the invite to a tryout., which goes well. Getting picked , say 26th, usually means going to a winning team , with the two seasons guaranteed.

Diallo going, if that is his plan, would be based on a decision made long ago. Among other things that enhances our shot at getting Maker. Too bad the NCAA thwarted this kid from having a full season.

I would be curious about what your contacts think about Svi. To me he's the most interesting case. Could he be a star at KU next season, yes.
But could he be moderately well compensated for playing in the Euro league next year, also yes?

...so this is 100% conjecture.

It might just be me, but leaving early without a guaranteed 1st round pick isn't smart. Yes, you COULD catch on somewhere (unlikely), but you're more likely to end up in Europe or the D-League. As Senex mentions, you can make more money in a full time minimum wage job than in the D-League, so money's not a draw there. Europe and some of the other international leagues are, however, financially lucrative options. While not the NBA, you can certainly do well financially in some of those situations.

So with this in mind, if you're not going to get the NBA money guaranteed (1st rounders) there are 2 reasons to leave early:
1.) Money
2.) Exposure and development that you can hopefully parlay into an NBA contract.

I'll start with #2: while the NBA scouts most certainly follow the international leagues and obviously run the D-League, it's really a toss up if you're going to get better exposure or development in either of those options. KU games are loaded with pro scouts, and ever single game we play is now on TV. I don't see much Euro-ball on American TV, and while some D-League is televised, it's nowhere near the same draw as college basketball...especially at a place like KU. So from exposure there's no upside to leaving to get more expsosure, UNLESS you're riding the bench at KU...in which case, you're probably not a potential pro anyway.

Development in a pro program might be comparable to KU, but that only applies if the team wants to invest in you. If you wind up signing with a team in Spain and they decide that you're a 2nd stringer, they may not want to invest the time and effort in you. At KU, the staff is much more invested in your development. AND, let's not forget that you can earn a degree in the process. Jamari may or may not have much of a pro basketball career, but he has a degree and a bunch of great connections. He certainly capitalized on his opportunity at KU and now has an opportunity to live a much better life than he imagined based on the cards he was initially dealt.

So as far as #2 is concerned, going early without a solid shot at the 1st round has no upside.

Now, as for #1, two words: Ben McLemore. There was a kid who was questionably ready, but who nevertheless got drafted and who absolutely needed the cash ASAP. If a kid and his family were in that kind of dire financial situation, heading off to play in Europe and making a couple hundred grand might be a better path since it's still possible to get to the NBA, and you'd get some money immediately.

BASED ON THAT....
>at this point, I think Selden needs another year and should stay. Unless he plays 6 consecutively great games in the tourney and moves up to the first round (totally possible) I think his best move is to stay.

>Svi: he's only 13 years old, right?(and Perry's 45 ). HIs parents are educators and want him to stay in school. He can absolutely be a 1st rounder if he continues to develop. KU can give him what he needs and there appears to be no dire financial situation that would make him go.

>Diallo: surprised that as a 2nd rounder that you guys think it's a foregone conclusion. If that's the case, it was obviously pre-determined as a plan, and maybe the financial thing is urgent for him. If that's the case, he should go play in Europe. If finances AREN'T the issue, I absolutely think he should stay. He apparently loves HCBS (texts him daily) and appears to want to learn. I'm 100% convinced that a year of conditioning and another season at KU could turn him into an NBA 1st rounder. Makes no sense to me that he'd go, but maybe I'm missing something.

All that being said, the "you can try out and come back" rule will make it interesting. I think Wayne will definitely go test the waters, and I could see Diallo doing likewise. But to not return if you're projected in the 2nd round? Not a good call, IMHO, unless you absolutely need the cash.

The problem with Selden leaving is the reality that his weaknesses are such that a trip to the D league is almost guaranteed. He doesn't have good ball-handling skills, his 3 point shot is up and down, and his aggressiveness is questionable and variable. He's not as mentally tough as the NBA requires, and if those weaknesses are to be improved, it won't be playing in the D League or Europe. The coaching is simply not there and the emphasis is on scoring, not defense or the other smaller things that separate otherwise talented players from NBA players. Selden has improved a lot since he arrived at KU, and another year working under Self and the assistants will likely turn Selden into a late 1st rounder. At worst, he gives up about 200k from a European team for one season, with the strong possibility of gaining 1 million plus from an NBA team next year. If I was advising him, I'd suggest staying.

As for Diallo, the only issue is what HE wants. He's got more physical ability than Selden, and better physical attributes for the NBA. What he lacks is skills, and those can, in fact, be developed playing overseas. He needs to PLAY games at this point, and he might get that at KU next year, or not. He will definitely get that in Europe, so I believe that he will leave in order to get the playing time he needs. If Self was to guarantee him 25 minutes a game next year (which he won't), than Diallo might actually stay. But as I said, Self won't, and Diallo is almost definitely gone.

I think we're in agreement on Selden.

Diallo, not so much, but you're absolutely correct in that he holds the cards and will decide what he wants to do. Again, I have no inside info, but if I were Self (who Diallo appears to truly like and respect) I'd be pitching him hard to stay based on the following:
>Perry's and Jamari's (and Hunter's) departures will open up opportunities for more time
>Point to Lucas as an example of a guy who wasn't pegged to be "the guy" but who became that guy
>Point to Bragg's increasing minutes which have coincided with his ability to perform as directed by HCBS

Obviously Self won't guarantee anybody minutes, but I'm sure that he can explain to Diallo that the opportunity exists to see significant minutes based on what he's willing to put into the effort.

Finally, from outside appearances, it looks like Diallo also truly likes playing at KU with his teammates. With or without him, we're going to be very good again next year, so going on another good run with likely accolades and net cuttings might be more attractive than moving to Barcelona by himself, getting an apartment, and starting over.

In addition to what he wants to do, I guess the missing piece of the puzzle (again, I have no connections within the program) is the money side, because from where I'm sitting it would appear that the opportunity to develop his game and play in front of NBA scouts is equivalent. Of course, if there are rumors that Diallo is enough of a "project" that he won't have the opportunity to earn big minutes next year, that changes the landscape significantly.