predictions for Austin Peay game

And so it begins.

I hope you survived the Big 12 Tournament without the usual predictions.
At 40 cents a minute and throughput of only 20 kBps on average, I chose
not to try and keep up with daily Internet surfing of the usual web sites
from which the predictions are derived.

Kansas overcame three consecutive conference road losses, including a bad
loss to Oklahoma State, to rise to the top of several rankings, including
the RPI.  The Jayhawks' record against the Sagarin Top 25 is 10-3.  The
next closest teams are Virginia, Oklahoma, and Texas, all with just 7 wins
against the Sagarin Top 25.  The Kansas record against the Sagarin Top 50
is an impressive 15-3, and if you use the Sagarin Predictor rankings rather
than the Overall rankings, then the three wins against Kansas State kick in,
because the Wildcats are #47 in Predictor, but only #53 Overall.  That would
make for an eye-opping 18-3 record, with the closest competitor being Miami,
who has a 12-3 record against the Top 50.

So, we get the Governors of Austin Peay in the Round of 64.  If you ignore
their two wins against Division II opponents, as the RPI does, Austin Peay
has a losing record of 16-17.  They just happened to win their conference
tournament and the automatic bid that goes with it.  Kansas hasn't played
a team ranked as low as Austin Peay since the Holy Cross game.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 26.3 point margin, with a 99.6 percent probability
of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 149.9 points
per game, that suggests a final score of Kansas 88, Austin Peay 62.  The
Jayhawks have been playing 0.8 points above expectation, while Austin Peay
has been playing 0.2 points above expectation, which means that the Jayhawks
could be a 26.9 point favorite.  The trend for both teams is positive; Austin
Peay's is a little stronger and more statistically significant.  Kansas has a
positive mental toughness rating, which is good when playing tough opponents,
but works against the Jayhawks when playing weaker opponents.  On the other
hand, Austin Peay has a negative mental toughness rating, which works against
them when playing a tough opponent.  Taken at face value, the net effect is
for the margin to increase to 27.8 points.  Austin Peay has shown more
consistency than Kansas has, but the most they've played above expectation
all season long is just 22.9 points against Tennessee Tech in the opening
round of their conference tournament, which isn't enough to overcome a
26.3 point margin.  Meanwhile, only in the infamous Oklahoma State game did
the Jayhawks play by more than 26.3 points below expectation, corresponding
to a 1 in 33, or 3 percent, chance of losing.  Average that with Austin Peay's
0 percent chance of winning, and we get just a 1.5 percent chance of Kansas
losing the game, a bit more pessimistic than derived from the Sagarin
Predictor ratings mentioned above.

Massey gives Kansas a 27.0 point margin, with a 98 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 91, Austin Peay 64.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 14.5 units, as well as
the better adjusted defense by 16.9 units, which combine to a 31.4 units
advantage for Kansas.  With an average of 70.1 possessions per game,
the margin for the Jayhawks works out to 22.0 points on a neutral court,
which is where this game will be played.  The ratings suggest a final score
of Kansas 85, Austin Peay 63.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 25.5 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
of 89 to 63.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven
of eight categories; Austin Peay attempts more free throws per field goal
attempt.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just four
of seven categories; Austin Peay grabs more offensive rebounds per game, steals
marginally more balls per game, and commits fewer personal fouls per game.

Dunkel doesn't have predictions for Thursday posted yet.  Given that I will be
flying back to Honolulu for almost the entire day before tip-off, I may not
get a chance to update this posting with the very latest predictions from
Dunkel.

Real Time gives Kansas just an 18.0 point margin with a final score of Kansas 81,
Austin Peay 63.  The probability of winning the game is given as 78.8 percent.
Recall that Real Time brought up the rear among the conference game
prognosticators, though by only a point per game.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.  Austin Peay
ranks in the lower half of Division I, both in power and strength of schedule.
If they had not won their conference tournament, they would not be dancing.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 25.8 point margin, with a 98.6 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 89, Austin Peay 63.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 33.0 units in favor of Kansas, but we
need to calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling
factor of 0.726 just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick
with that value for consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas a 24.0 point
favorite.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 19.5 points in favor
of Kansas.  I still can't understand the BPI's low rankings for Kansas both in
power and in strength of schedule.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas just a 12.0 point margin, corresponding to a
93 percent probability of winning the game.  The projected final score
is Kansas 81, Austin Peay 69.  Recall that Seven Overtimes came in second-last
among the prognosticators of conference games, just a tenth of a point better
than Real Time.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 20.3 point margin.

I haven't received a new DPPI projection.  Then again, I've been on travel.

There are, surprisingly enough, two common opponents, namely Vanderbilt
and Northern Colorado:

KU   +7 Van neutral ( +7 neutral)
AP  -39 Van on road (-35 neutral)
KU  +42 AP  neutral (+42 neutral)

KU  +37 NC  at home (+33 neutral)
AP  +15 NC  on road (+19 neutral)
KU  +14 AP  neutral (+14 neutral)

Both comparisons favor Kansas, particularly the Vanderbilt one.  The
average is 28 points, comparable to what we've seen from the more optimistic
of the various prognosticators.

Players to watch:  Guard Josh Robinson plays the most minutes, but that's
the only category in which he leads the Governors.  Center Chris Horton
scores the most points, grabs the most rebounds, steals the most balls,
and blocks the most shots, but also commits the most turnovers.  Guard
Khalil Davis dishes the most assists but also commits the most personal
fouls.  Austin Peay looks like a one-man team, and that man, Chris Horton,
left the last game with an ankle injury, though he is expected to play
against Kansas.  Whether he will be 100 percent is a good question.

The average of the various prognostications is 23.3 points in favor of Kansas.
The projected final score would be Kansas 87, Austin Peay 63, with the rounding
working in the Jayhawks' favor.  The Governors have actually played higher
scoring games than Kansas, on average, so my gut tells me we're likely to see
a higher scoring game, though perhaps Austin Peay realizes they have no chance
if they run with Kansas and will try to play a ball control game.  On the
Kansas side, I'm going to expect Self to rest his starters if the lead gets
big enough, so the final margin may not be quite as large as expected (recall
what happened against Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament).  The real wild card in
all of this is Chris Horton's ankle.  If he's not 100 percent, Austin Peay
might fall apart, and the final margin could be a lot larger.  So many factors
pulling in different directions!

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  1   #  2   #  2   #  1   #  1   +0.8   10.7   +0.18 +/- 0.20   +0.03 +/- 0.20
Austin Peay    #219   #234   #238   #234   #174   +0.2    8.7   +0.27 +/- 0.16   -0.18 +/- 0.19
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  1  #  1   #  1   #  2   #  1  #  1    #  2    #  1   #  8   #  1   #  3
Austin Peay    #161  #235   #212   #230   #238  #238    #171    #195   #210   #189   #187
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   1.205   30-4     #     #   
Austin Peay    #209   #208   #219   #191   #189   #198   #209  -0.274   18-17    #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1  #  3    #  1  #  9    #  5  # 53    #  1  #  3    #  3  #  7    #  1  #  4
Austin Peay    #210  #227    #211  #238    #227  #250    #213  #241    #212  #180    #214  #239

Here is Kansas' season, including the probabilities of beating Colorado,
California, and Villanova, the #8, #4, and #2 seeds in the South Regional,
plus the margins against the other #1 seeds that could be in the Final Four.
Clearly, Sagarin does not value Oregon as highly as the RPI does.  Right
now our chances of winning the National Championship would seem to be right
around 13.4 percent.  Obviously that will change as the tournament plays out.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #308 Northern Colorado          109  72   +35.37    +1.63
NEUT   #  1 Michigan State              73  79    -0.16    -5.84
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 62 UCLA                        92  73   +12.39    +6.61
NEUT   # 19 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +5.23    +1.77
HOME   #283 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +32.94    +0.06
HOME   #159 Harvard                     75  69   +24.38   -18.38
HOME   #279 Holy Cross                  92  59   +32.80    +0.20
HOME   # 59 Oregon State                82  67   +15.46    -0.46
HOME   #152 Montana                     88  46   +23.95   +18.05
AWAY   # 52 San Diego State             70  57    +7.57    +5.43
HOME   # 97 UC Irvine                   78  53   +18.75    +6.25
HOME   # 25 Baylor                     102  74   +10.01   +17.99
HOME   #  9 Oklahoma                   109 106    +6.27    -3.27
AWAY   # 48 Texas Tech                  69  59    +7.39    +2.61
AWAY   #  4 West Virginia               63  74    -1.92    -9.08
HOME   #126 TCU                         70  63   +21.78   -14.78
AWAY   # 83 Oklahoma State              67  86   +11.10   -30.10
HOME   # 32 Texas                       76  67   +11.47    -2.47
AWAY   # 24 Iowa State                  72  85    +2.79   -15.79
HOME   # 10 Kentucky                    90  84    +6.40    -0.40
HOME   # 47 Kansas State                77  59   +13.92    +4.08
AWAY   #126 TCU                         75  56   +15.16    +3.84
HOME   #  4 West Virginia               75  65    +4.70    +5.30
AWAY   #  9 Oklahoma                    76  72    -0.35    +4.35
HOME   # 83 Oklahoma State              94  67   +17.72    +9.28
AWAY   # 47 Kansas State                72  63    +7.30    +1.70
AWAY   # 25 Baylor                      66  60    +3.39    +2.61
HOME   # 48 Texas Tech                  67  58   +14.01    -5.01
AWAY   # 32 Texas                       86  56    +4.85   +25.15
HOME   # 24 Iowa State                  85  78    +9.41    -2.41
NEUT   # 47 Kansas State                85  63   +10.61   +11.39
NEUT   # 25 Baylor                      70  66    +6.70    -2.70
NEUT   #  4 West Virginia               81  71    +1.39    +8.61
NEUT   #238 Austin Peay                          +26.30             0.996   0.996 probability of advancing to the Round of 32
NEUT   # 51 Colorado                             +10.88             0.842   0.839 probability of advancing to the Sweet Sixteen
NEUT   # 27 California                            +7.23             0.748   0.627 probability of advancing to the Elite Eight
NEUT   #  6 Villanova                             +1.81             0.566   0.355 probability of advancing to the Final Four
NEUT   # 21 Oregon                                +5.62             0.698   0.248 probability of advancing to the Championship Game
NEUT   #  3 North Carolina                        +1.13             0.542   0.134 probability of being National Champions
NEUT   #  5 Virginia                              +1.57             0.558

Here is Austin Peay's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 19 Vanderbilt                  41  80   -24.38   -14.62
AWAY   # 11 Indiana                     76 102   -25.83    -0.17
HOME   #140 Fort Wayne(IPFW)            77  80    -3.18    +0.18
HOME   #195 Cal Poly-SLO                64  73    +0.71    -9.71
AWAY   #308 Northern Colorado           91  76    +2.45   +12.55
Div2        Oakland City                83  55
HOME   #233 Samford                     74  73    +3.10    -2.10
AWAY   #177 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi     48  61    -7.35    -5.65
AWAY   #282 Troy                        80  71    +0.01    +8.99
AWAY   #140 Fort Wayne(IPFW)            68  85    -9.80    -7.20
AWAY   #167 North Florida(UNF)          70  80    -7.90    -2.10
AWAY   #271 Lipscomb                    92  84    -0.51    +8.51
HOME   #197 Wofford                     84  77    +0.72    +6.28
HOME   #177 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi     70  74    -0.73    -3.27
Div2        Westminster College        112  61
HOME   #201 Eastern Kentucky            70  79    +1.01   -10.01
HOME   #291 Jacksonville State          73  54    +7.56   +11.44
HOME   #192 Tennessee Tech              66  72    +0.42    -6.42
AWAY   #175 Tennessee State             52  66    -7.44    -6.56
AWAY   #130 Belmont                     58  76   -10.72    -7.28
HOME   #302 SIU-Edwardsville            90  86    +8.33    -4.33
HOME   #266 Eastern Illinois            86  87    +5.57    -6.57
AWAY   #142 Morehead State              65  75    -9.78    -0.22
AWAY   #336 SE Missouri State(SEMO)     86  80    +5.74    +0.26
AWAY   #229 Tennessee-Martin            77  86    -3.86    -5.14
AWAY   #170 Murray State                76  73    -7.75   +10.75
AWAY   #266 Eastern Illinois            79  70    -1.05   +10.05
HOME   #229 Tennessee-Martin            84  85    +2.76    -3.76
HOME   #170 Murray State                60  76    -1.13   -14.87
AWAY   #302 SIU-Edwardsville            80  75    +1.71    +3.29
HOME   #336 SE Missouri State(SEMO)     83  75   +12.36    -4.36
NEUT   #192 Tennessee Tech              92  72    -2.89   +22.89
NEUT   #175 Tennessee State             74  72    -4.13    +6.13
NEUT   #130 Belmont                     97  96    -7.41    +8.41
NEUT   #229 Tennessee-Martin            83  73    -0.55   +10.55
NEUT   #  2 Kansas                               -26.30             0.004