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My quick take on the toughest road for the top 1 and 2 seeds

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8 years 8 months ago - 8 years 8 months ago #6055 by konza63
UNC got the toughest draw of any 1 seed, at least at the top of its bracket. Drawing UK (if they beat IU) in a Sweet 16 game is very tough.

KU got the next toughest draw of any 1 seed, with the most quality depth of any region. Six solid, ranked teams in our path (Villanova, Miami, Arizona, Maryland, Iowa, Cal)--and that's not even including the very tough second game out of the block against a Boyle-coached CU (which has no fear of KU and beat Zona a week ago) or a surging UCONN team that is coached by an NC-winning coach and is playing with house money.

It's a very big drop-off after that, IMO, with the other two regions.

Oregon's draw doesn't feature any teams that would scare me if KU had that bracket instead of them, with the exception of OU--and with them only because it's tough to beat them 3 times. But that region is very winnable and wide open--knowing Puke's luck, it will break for them, even though they are not an even a "very" good team this year.

As for the Midwest, WOW. The talking heads want to point out that Sparty got the shaft by not getting a 1 seed, but the Committee literally gave them the sweetest path of any 1 or 2 seed in the entire field. That region is putrid, with the exception of UVA, and I'm just not sold on them at all. That's it! UVA has a very smooth path to get to the Elite 8, unless the defense-incapable Cyclones can somehow figure out how to play on both ends of the court. As for Michigan State? WOW! What a cakewalk they were given.

Here is what KU notionally has to go through to get to the FF: Colorado or UConn; Cal or Maryland (yowza); Zona or Villanova

Now here is what MSU notionally has to go through: Dayton or (barely in) Syracuse; Utah/Seton Hall/Gonzaga; UVA/ISU/Purdue [That's what you call a VERY favorable draw...]

Playing Cal or Maryland as a Sweet 16 game is a really brutal draw for KU. (Cal is loaded with NBA-bound talent, and Cuonzo Martin has beaten Self--at Tennessee--before...meanwhile, Turgeon playing his old school, loaded with talent that can get hot anytime...trust me, I live in DC, they are a scarier draw than you might think.) The only team with a tougher Sweet 16 draw is UNC having to play UK (if they beat IU).

I also have zero clue why they put KU in the South. Every projection we've seen had us in the Midwest. But then they flipped the brackets (at least the ones Corpus had this morning, from Lunardi, which showed the Midwest playing West to get in the NC, and South playing the East...it flipped to the South playing the West and East playing Midwest). That at least spared us having to play Mich State or UNC, which is a blessing. In that sense, Michigan State has a tougher drawing than KU once they get to the FF game (if they get to the FF game, and if chalk holds).

Bottom line for me: UNC and KU were given the toughest path to the FF, Sparty was given the easiest, and Oregon or OU (or whomever comes out of the West) was given the second easiest. But as for the more difficult FF matchup (to get to the NC game), that East-Midwest battle (whomever it features) looks pretty tough--especially if it's Sparty vs. either UNC or UK. Meanwhile, KU would get whomever came out of the West--Oregon, OU, or a team on an upset run (A&M? Puke?).

If KU can get through the gauntlet that is its regional, I like our chances to get to the NC game. But the committee didn't do us any favors, clearly, as the alleged top overall seed. Still, we are a balanced squad playing as well (if not better) than any team in the land, so let's just line 'em up and knock 'em down, one team and one game at a time...

My $.02...

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 8 years 8 months ago by konza63.
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8 years 8 months ago #6056 by konza63
If you just include the teams in each region that landed in the final AP Top 25 and KenPom's season-ending Top 25, here's how the regions stack up, from toughest to easiest (with the 1 and 2 seeds listed for each):

SOUTH (KU, NOVA): 7 teams in AP Top 25 ... 10 teams in KP Top 25

WEST (ORE, OU): 6 teams in AP Top 25 ... 5 teams in KP Top 25

EAST (UNC, XAVIER): 5 teams in AP Top 25 ... 5 teams in AP Top 25

MIDWEST (UVA, MSU): 5 teams in AP Top 25 ... 5 teams in KP Top 25

This is only one way to slice the cat, of course, but the AP rankings are the composite national consensus as to the top 25 teams in the land, and KenPom is consistently cited as one of the most trusted set of metrics for college hoops.

If you go by this, clearly KU was handed a very tough road, with not just a few tough teams in the way (which is true of the other regions), but the most. The KenPom numbers are particularly staggering and concerning.

The only saving grace is that, when you winnow the AP rankings down to just the Top 10, KU's South bracket only includes two teams (KU itself and Nova). The East is the toughest (most top-heavy) with four top 10 teams (UNC, Xavier, WVU, and IU--UK was 16th prior to this weekend). The West is like the South, with only two top 10 teams (OU and Oregon). And the Midwest also comes in with two (Mich State and UVA).

Somewhat similarly, the South and West only have two top 10 KenPom teams each (KU/Nova and OU/Oregon, respectively), while the East and Midwest have three in the top 10 (UNC/WVU/UK and UVA/MSU/Purdue).

I guess that's the "good news" part of what is definitely a tough KU bracket.

FWIW... B)

_________________________________

Footnote: To get the tourney-relevant KenPom top 25 rankings, I removed Louisville and SMU from the list, since they are not eligible to participate.

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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8 years 8 months ago #6057 by mpeterson44
Another way to look at it would be that we will not see any ranked opponent before the sweet 16. We just need to survive the first weekend. After that if we are still in it either Maryland or Cal will already be eliminated. Then out of Villanova, Iowa, Miami and Arizona only one of them will remain. Just another perspective. ROCK CHALK!!!!

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8 years 8 months ago #6060 by HawkErrant

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"

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8 years 8 months ago #6061 by konza63
Yep, mpeterson44, and that's a proper way to look at it (in terms of teams getting eliminated along the way).

As for us not playing a ranked team before the sweet 16, that holds for all 4 regions (and all 1 or 2 seeds), actually. So we got no special break in that department.

Lace 'em up and win 'em, that's all we need to do.

But I still say that is a very tough region, all the way to the FF.

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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8 years 8 months ago #6063 by mpeterson44
And since there are no other Big 12 teams in our region I will be rooting for all of our conference teams to make deep runs. Let this be the year that the Big 12 conference is heard.
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8 years 8 months ago #6065 by konza63
Absolutely concur. I definitely want the Big 12 to do GREAT this year...but, of course, with no one advancing as far as KU! ;)

As much as I wouldn't want to have to face OU 3 times in one year (with us being in the role of OU in '88, having to notch the third win out of three tries), that would be a PHENOMENAL Final Four game. Probably one for the ages.

And as much as I can't stand ThugBall, I'd love for the Mountaineers to ride roughshod over ConTucky and the TarHoles in the East...and for the Clones to take down Sparty in the Midwest! But again, with KU advancing the farthest of them all and cutting down the nets. (Goes without saying, but I'll always say it--LOL)

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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8 years 8 months ago #6069 by mpeterson44
So here is my dream final four. Kansas and Oklahoma on one side and West Virginia and Iowa State on the other side of the bracket. Would make for some damn interesting games. Why not it's possible. Wonder what the odds of that happening are?

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8 years 8 months ago #6070 by Hawknmo
Spot on as always Konza. As I have already posted I would like for the committee to "screw" KU every year like they did Sparty this year. Man what a joke. Why two ACC 1s? Oh thats right I said ACC. Sorry. Clearly Miami got screwed and should have been a 1 too right? Whatever. Point is, of the top 8 teams it seems like MSU got the 1,1 treatment.

Speaking of Miami....if and I personally think it might be a big if...we get past Maryland Im betting we might get to see the Canes. What do we know about them besides they don't miss Frank Haith?

RKCKJHK!!!

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8 years 8 months ago #6071 by konza63
The one thing I know about Miami is they have an exceptional coach in Jim Larranaga. I live about 10 miles from George Mason University, and he took that no-name school (when it comes to hoops) and put them on the map back in the day with his elite coaching. He doesn't look the part...he'd fit better as Fred McMurray's brother in My Three Sons...but he can flat-out coach teams up.

The one "negative" rap on his Miami teams is inconsistency in closing the deal. They can look like the most elite force on the planet one night and then lay an egg the other. So it really does depend on which team shows up on a given day. The bracket in the bottom half of the South is every bit as loaded as the top half, so they'll do well to even get out of there alive. I really don't even know who to pick in the bottom half, to be honest--a lot of qualified teams there, to be sure. I'd probably go with Zona, then Nova, then Miami to emerge out of the wreckage, but who knows?

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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8 years 8 months ago - 8 years 8 months ago #6072 by konza63
Another person not pleased with the route handed to KU (not only the teams in our region, but being shipped off to Louisville):

www2.kusports.com/news/2016/mar/14/tom-k...t-does-ku-no-favors/

RE this part:

Let’s look at Kenpom.com. Nine schools from the South appear in the top 25 among teams eligible for the tournament (Louisville and SMU are serving tournament bans): Kansas Villanova, Wichita State, Miami, Arizona, California, Maryland, UConn, Vanderbilt. Five from the West are among the top 25: Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas AM, Duke and Baylor.


There are actually 10 tourney-eligible schools (not 9) from KenPom's top 25 that are in the South. Vanderbilt is also in there, at #25, when you take out ineligible Louisville and SMU.

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 8 years 8 months ago by konza63.

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8 years 8 months ago - 8 years 8 months ago #6075 by Illhawk
It looks like they contorted things a bit to get TV match-ups. Colorado-UConn, either a KU alumn coached team or a team on a mission. I hate the Round of 32. I suggest that we take a look at some of the conference tournaments where they grant double byes, that gets top seeds to the second weekend.

Maryland has two first round draft picks and offers the prospect of Hawk on Hawk mayhem. I am still not used to them being in the Big Ten(14).

If we were in the Midwest Regional the option was there to wake up Sunday and roll to the United Center.(3.25 hours, familiar venue) Louisville would be more involved .
Last Edit: 8 years 8 months ago by Illhawk. Reason: left out word

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8 years 8 months ago #6120 by rainyhawk
These comments seem to fit with the analysts...both cbs and ESPN. They continue to say we got a tough road, especially for the overall number one seed. And most were also confused by being in The south and not Midwest. A committee member was asked about that but his answer didn't really explain it. Hopefull we will play to our best and win through. Several still pick us to win it all in spite of our road.

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